2016 Draft

I didn't know where else to put this, so I'm starting a new thread.

GBPG has an article about TT's success in the second round compared to the rest of the NFL. The story is largely built around the singular fact that TT has drafted more pro bowlers in the second round than any other team. The rest of the narrative supports that angle.

The author calls the second round the largest disparity for TT vs the NFL, but based on games started, that's simply not true. Also, he calls the first round roughly the same as the NFL average, but that's also not true. Here are the actual conclusions using the statistics he misrepresents:

TT is 20% below average in the first round (likely because he's consistently drafting in the late 20s), but far from "on par with the NFL average".
TT is 22% above average in the second round--which is impressive as the article states.

But most impressive is his fourth round where he bats 45% better than the NFL average in games started; the Packers actually get more production out of the fourth round than they do the third (NFL 4th rounders average 80% of the starts as their 3rd rounders; the Packers get 133%).

Just some narrative inaccuracies I thought I'd correct.

http://www.packersnews.com/story/spo...ound/82933358/

The problem with the article is that it is based off percentages of the total, which always adds up to 100%. Also the number of picks is not accounted for, so the comp picks are liable to push up some of the higher rounds, and trades change the numbers as well. It might be better to have rates expressed as starts per player picked per round, and games per player picked per round. Harder to describe the numbers, but potentially more meaningful (for whatever meaning you can really get out of this sort of thing).

^ I think that is why the article focused on the 2nd round success, rather than the 4th. But as per newspaper usual, they leave the necessary detail unmentioned.

This goes to support my annual hope that TT trades down and out of round 1 to pick up another 2nd and 4th. Then he trades back into round 2 for a 3rd and 4th so we end up with 3 second rounders. That and ban Fresno State from our scouting trips :))

Seems like TT has drafted some slugs in round one....minues AROD and Clay.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bretsky

This goes to support my annual hope that TT trades down and out of round 1 to pick up another 2nd and 4th. Then he trades back into round 2 for a 3rd and 4th so we end up with 3 second rounders. That and ban Fresno State from our scouting trips :))

Seems like TT has drafted some slugs in round one....minues AROD and Clay.

---

Packers draft positions in the first round:

24, 5, 16, 9, 26, 23, 32, 28, 26, 21, 30.

Over half of those picks are in the lower quarter of the round (OK, OK technically #24 is not the lower quarter, but #23 is close, too.) Only two picks were firmly in the upper half of the round. Average at #22, well into the lower half. As luck would have it, when they had their highest pick at #5, it wasn't one of the stronger 1st rounds.

TT's first five first round picks averaged at #16, and he got his most important pick in Rodgers, and three immediate contributors in Hawk, Raji and Matthews. His last 6 drafts averaged 10 slots lower, at #26/27. At that, he got immediate contributors in Bulaga, Dix and Randall.

Not making any argument about it, just offering some perspective on what they have been faced with, and what they have achieved.

Is there anywhere to find historical first round analysis broken down by quartile? So expected results of 1st 8 2nd 8 etc?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Upnorth

Is there anywhere to find historical first round analysis broken down by quartile? So expected results of 1st 8 2nd 8 etc?

---

I suppose one of the things you can look at is the trade value charts. In one chart, the two highest 4th quartile values, #25 (720 points) and #26(700 points) combined barely equal #8 (1400 points)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Upnorth

Is there anywhere to find historical first round analysis broken down by quartile? So expected results of 1st 8 2nd 8 etc?

---

http://www.footballperspective.com/draft-value-chart/

They have a value for each pick. The AV column of values is the average value of a player according to Pro-Football-Reference. The NFL column lists Jimmy Johnson's chart value like Patler mentioned.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Patler

I suppose one of the things you can look at is the trade value charts. In one chart, the two highest 4th quartile values, #25 (720 points) and #26(700 points) combined barely equal #8 (1400 points)

---

There's a lot of confusion the last 4-5 seasons and what Trade Value Chart should be considered fairest RE: Trades.

Patler would you please LINK to the TVC you reference. Thanks.

Another thing to consider -- and which Patler alluded to re: the Hawk pick at #5, is that some years there aren't 32 players considered by scouts as worthy of being a 1st round pick...so those players get picked even though they are 2nd round talent. This year is supposedly one of those years, BTW.
The round (and in the case of the 1st round, where) a player is taken matters from an expectation of talent and performance. I'd expect a Top 5 player to be more likely to make more Pro Bowls over their career than someone taken at the end of the 1st round, and more likely to make the Pro Bowl within 3 years vs. someone taken at the bottom of the 5th round.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by woodbuck27

There's a lot of confusion the last 4-5 seasons and what Trade Value Chart should be considered fairest RE: Trades.

Patler would you please LINK to the TVC you reference. Thanks.

---

I just have a couple printouts in my desk of charts published over the years. No links. Sorry.
I will see if I can find some.

Here are a few:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...t-trade-chart/
http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php
http://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

ProFootballTalk ‏@ProFootballTalk 3h3 hours ago
Carson Wentz would be first non-FBS No. 1 pick since Ed "Too Tall" Jones

I don't actually care much, except that Too Tall Jones was a very good player with a great nickname.

Updated report on Jaylon Smith still projects he will miss entire 2016 season. What to do with a top 5 talent recovering from a bad knee injury? I'm guessing he goes sometime on Friday.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Joemailman

Updated report on Jaylon Smith still projects he will miss entire 2016 season. What to do with a top 5 talent recovering from a bad knee injury? I'm guessing he goes sometime on Friday.

---

Some teams talk about their compensatory picks as "freebies" to take a shot with a guy. Perhaps one of the teams with a third round compensatory pick will use it on him. If he is still available (which I doubt), I wouldn't mind seeing the Packers use one of their three fourth round picks on him.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Joemailman

Updated report on Jaylon Smith still projects he will miss entire 2016 season. What to do with a top 5 talent recovering from a bad knee injury? I'm guessing he goes sometime on Friday.

---

i think he still goes in the first

i think i agree with him, from what i've seen, he probably IS the best defensive player in the draft

he's got special talent, someone will probably jump on him in the first IMO

too bad we don't have a backup plan at ILB where we could afford to redshirt a guy for a year

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by run pMc

Another thing to consider -- and which Patler alluded to re: the Hawk pick at #5, is that some years there aren't 32 players considered by scouts as worthy of being a 1st round pick...so those players get picked even though they are 2nd round talent. This year is supposedly one of those years, BTW.
The round (and in the case of the 1st round, where) a player is taken matters from an expectation of talent and performance. I'd expect a Top 5 player to be more likely to make more Pro Bowls over their career than someone taken at the end of the 1st round, and more likely to make the Pro Bowl within 3 years vs. someone taken at the bottom of the 5th round.

---

i don't understand or buy this argument at all that TT misses on so many first round picks because he always picks later in the round

and the evidence is that so many good players go in all the other rounds each year

its not like you can only select that players in the first that are projected as first rounders.. where all the good ones are gone and you go, oh well i guess i have to pick one of the other projected first rounders that sucks

if all the good "first rounders" are gone, the take the best "second round" guy, or trade down

the fact of the matters is TT has liked the guys he drafted, and quite a few of them have turned out to be complete shit or close to it

A guy becomes a 1st round talent when a team picks him in the 1st round and not before, despite what the analysts and pundits say.

Is Carl Nassib a first round talent? Ezekial Elliot? They will be if a team judges them so and picks them.

It has everything to do with judgement and, if they are picked in the 1st round, there are no guarantees regarding performance.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Maxie the Taxi

It has everything to do with judgement and, if they are picked in the 1st round, there are no guarantees regarding performance.

---

It is not quite that much of a crapshoot. Not only are the odds better of getting a better player the higher you go, several other things happen.

You get reps in practice and games much earlier and have a longer term contract. As problematic as that can be for players who outperform it early, it also means a player gets a minimum of four years to demonstrate he was worth the pick. The contract can also crowd out competition at the position.

All these things add up to an increased likelihood of success.

But as you say, the first round is still 50/50 and not many have cracked to code to beat that number unless you draft in the top 15 several years in a row (49ers).

Here's something I found that's kind of interesting. Granted it's based on a small sample size, (Drafts between 2000 and 2007) and it involves players making the Pro-Bowl which can be bullshit because of players being selected based on name or team recognition.

Average number of Pro Bowl selections per year by round drafted from 2000 - 2007 (8 yrs.)

1st Rd. - 12.5 per year
2nd Rd. - 5.5 per year
3rd Rd. - 2.0 per year
4th Rd. - 2.375 per year
5th Rd. - 1.625 per year
6th Rd. - 1.5 per year
7th Rd. - 0.75 per year

UDFA's - 4.125 per year