Predict The Electoral College Outcome

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11-02-2008, 11:51 PM
Joemailman

Predict The Electoral College Outcome

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/

Click on the link, and click on any state to credit it to McCain or Obama.

I have it Obama 338, McCain 200. I'm not predicting a landslide. The popular vote will be pretty close. Of the states considered tossups I give McCain Montana, North Dakota, Arizona, Missouri, Georgia, Indiana, and North Carolina.

I give Obama Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

For McCain to win, he would need to sweep the tossup states, and get Pennsylvania. Not impossible, but the odds are pretty long.
11-03-2008, 09:04 AM
hoosier

I can't bring myself to make predictions about this one. But I do have a feeling that at least one of the states you have going for McPalin--that are usually solid red, like Indiana--will go to Obama.
11-03-2008, 09:15 AM
Deputy Nutz

I have it 286 for Obama and 252 for McCain.

That sucks.
11-03-2008, 09:36 AM
LL2

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deputy Nutz

I have it 286 for Obama and 252 for McCain.

That sucks.

So will the next 4 years!
11-03-2008, 09:39 AM
Cheesehead Craig

I'm going 360-178. Obama wins the general vote 53-46%
11-03-2008, 11:27 AM
sheepshead

My conservative estimate:

272-268 McCain

Senator McCain by 4.5% in the general
11-04-2008, 11:29 AM
sheepshead

Ill stick with my percentage here, the EC might even be higher. Dont be surprised by a stunner here.
11-04-2008, 11:35 AM
HarveyWallbangers

Quote:

Originally Posted by sheepshead

Ill stick with my percentage here, the EC might even be higher. Dont be surprised by a stunner here.

I doubt it. It smells like 1996. Dole wasn't a good politician. Neither is McCain. Democrats controlled Congress and the White House in 1992-1994, but Clinton was a centrist. Democrats controlled Congress and the White House in 1976-1980, but the Democratic Congress was centrist. We don't have that this time. The White House and Congress will be more liberal than it's been in a long time. It's going to be rough. Hopefully, history repeats itself, and we'll "throw the bums out" in 2 or 4 years. Hopefully, the stigma of the war in Iraq will be gone. We need a better presidential candidate.
11-04-2008, 11:40 AM
sheepshead

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarveyWallbangers

Quote:

Originally Posted by sheepshead

Ill stick with my percentage here, the EC might even be higher. Dont be surprised by a stunner here.

I doubt it. It smells like 1996. Dole wasn't a good politician. Neither is McCain. Democrats controlled Congress and the White House in 1992-1994, but Clinton was a centrist. Democrats controlled Congress and the White House in 1976-1980, but the Democratic Congress was centrist. We don't have that this time. The White House and Congress will be more liberal than it's been in a long time. It's going to be rough. Hopefully, history repeats itself, and we'll "throw the bums out" in 2 or 4 years. Hopefully, the stigma of the war in Iraq will be gone. We need a better presidential candidate.

come on my packer brother dont go all eeyore on me now!
11-04-2008, 02:16 PM
Badgerinmaine

Re: Predict The Electoral College Outcome

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joemailman

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/

Click on the link, and click on any state to credit it to McCain or Obama.

I have it Obama 338, McCain 200. I'm not predicting a landslide. The popular vote will be pretty close. Of the states considered tossups I give McCain Montana, North Dakota, Arizona, Missouri, Georgia, Indiana, and North Carolina.

I give Obama Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

For McCain to win, he would need to sweep the tossup states, and get Pennsylvania. Not impossible, but the odds are pretty long.

I picked this a couple of days ago exactly as you have. Eerie. One of my students told me today that this was the number Karl Rove came up with. Funny, I don't usually agree with him :-)
11-05-2008, 08:25 AM
Cheesehead Craig

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cheesehead Craig

I'm going 360-178. Obama wins the general vote 53-46%

Looks like the final is going to be 364-174 (Giving Obama NC and IN and McCain MO where each is leading) with the general vote 52-46%. Not too shabby on the call.
11-05-2008, 09:09 AM
hoosier

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cheesehead Craig

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cheesehead Craig

I'm going 360-178. Obama wins the general vote 53-46%

Looks like the final is going to be 364-174 (Giving Obama NC and IN and McCain MO where each is leading) with the general vote 52-46%. Not too shabby on the call.

You're as bad as a 2004 exit poll. I'll keep in mind for next time never to rely on your predictions. :lol: Just kidding, nice call.