Don't mess with what works. Having Cobb and Jordy with how they work with Rodgers is a rare gift. Keep the band together.
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Don't mess with what works. Having Cobb and Jordy with how they work with Rodgers is a rare gift. Keep the band together.
If the question is, is Cobb worth 9 million, I'd have to say probably not quite yet. Even James Jones lead the league in TDs one year, with AR throwing to him. Yes Cobb is having a good year. I'd guess he's probably worth 6.5-8 depending on high escalators (pro bowl, lead league in yards/tds/etc...) to reach the 8 million. Now if the question is, does he leave for under 9 and stays for 9 mil, then we give it to him. The difference between 6.5-8 and 9 is way to close to risk damaging the continuity of the offense.
To me Cobb is different than Jennings and Jones. And I'm not one to hate on Jennings much. But Cobb thinks like a QB, and is on the same page with AR when plays break down many times. Jennings was the precise route runner and had that timing with AR. Although both are able to do the other, these I believe are their strengths. I just think Cobb is the perfect complimentary piece for a great QB and an offense like ours. But he is a complimentary piece none the less. Love me some Cobb and hope he's here to stay for quite some time.
Here's a really good article from Sports Illustrated about Cobb and his contract situation.
http://www.si.com/nfl/2014/11/20/ran...en-bay-packers
It's not the standard for slot receivers to get #1 wideout type deals, but I gotta believe the Packers view Cobb and Nelson as being equally valuable to the team - especially in light of the rising cap - so if Cobb signs for anything less than Nelson's deal would be good value for the team I think. I could even see it go bigger and longer given his age but be about the same deal on a per year basis. The history on deals in that range (or higher) for a slot receiver pretty much starts and stops with Harvin - and we see how that's worked out for Seattle. Cobb brings the production to command $9 mil/yr. and also has the intangibles that have gotten in Percy's way.Quote:
But the reality is Nelson’s recent extension could prove somewhat problematic in Cobb’s contract talks, in that it’s a relatively club-friendly deal at less than $10 million per year. Given current market standards, and with the salary cap expected to rise significantly once again next year, Cobb will likely be seeking something north of what Green Bay is now paying its No. 1 receiver. With roughly $8 million of salary cap room that can be carried over to next year, the Packers have maneuverability, but how they value their top two receivers will be an intriguing subplot to their 2015 team salary structure.
It needs to happen, I just hope there is give and take on both sides. Cobb seems like a bright guy who understands how lucky he is to play with Rodgers. After seeing with Jennings that the grass isn't always greener on the other side, I hope Cobb is willing to give a little bit of a hometown discount.
Cue the Vikings/Bears throwing sacks and sacks of doubloons at Cobb this offseason.
vince's link looks familiar :lol:
A lot depends on the market this offseason. By cap numbers, Cobb could eclipse Nelson just by just getting a smaller percentage of the cap yielding more dollars for him yearly. But if the expected collapse of the WR market happens, as some are predicting, it might be hard to do better than Jennings did.
I don't understand why people are predicting a WR market 'collapse'. There's a cap...and a floor. Where is the money going to go, more to QBs? It's not going to be RBs or TEs.
Vince, there is another point of reference for highly paid slot receivers, Welker, and that worked out a lot better even though Belicheck decided it was too much money for him.
Oops my bad pb.
It seems like just about everyone thinks this'll get done one way or another, and I agree. You take all the history about how Thompson recruits, the profiles of players he likes to draft, how he wants to build a team, and just his whole modus operandi and try to encapsulate it in one person... that guy is Randall Cobb. It's really hard to see Ted letting him walk at the ripe old age of 24. I wish he wouldn't let him get to the point of testing his market value, but if he does, Ted will pay it - just like he did with Shields. At that point though you're basically paying top dollar. I think he's worth it but I don't quite understand Thompson's recent tendency toward letting guys he wants to resign get to free agency...
The trend has been down since Vincent Jackson's deal. Even overpaying Mike Wallace got him nowhere near the previous top deals (Fitzgerald, etc.).
That plus very good rookie contributions (no more waiting 3 years) and a decent draft class seem to point to a depressed market. It has not fallen like RB yet and so predicting it is a dicey business. But it is quite stagnant.
You are right that the one group doing better are the slot guys. Like I said, with an increased cap coming, there is no guarantee his market will be flat.
we had a similar discussion during GJ's contract year. Lots of us, myself included, were convinced TT would find a way to keep him and we all know how that worked out.
On the surface, this seems like the same discussion, but from what you all are saying, it seems like a lot of the variables are different.
Thoughts?
One of the biggest variables may be that everyone has the benefit of hindsight to see how that worked out for Jennings. I think it's pretty well understood that Thompson had made Jennings offers that were higher than he ended up getting with the Vikings but he turned them down. Teddy was there with Jennings. It was Jennings who made the fateful decisions. Isn't it too obvious for Cobb to not make the same mistakes Jennings did?
One of the things that's been learned I think is that it's easy to grossly overpay for receiving talent when you don't have the guy you need to throw it to them. With Rodgers in the mix for the next 8 years or whatever it is, I think aggressively investing in talent at the skill positions around him become good decisions. If we had someone cued up right behind Cobb that projected with confidence to replace his touches (like we did with Cobb when Jennings was in his last year) then that too changes things a bit but I don't see that here at all at this point.
Actually, some of the money taken from WRs might go to TEs, a bit more to the top TE's, and you might see teams that have two very solid ones signing both to good contracts.
RBs were paid extremely well at one time. Then, teams realized the passing game was the key and some of the RB money started going to WRs. Now, as they realize that one outstanding guy might not be as valuable as two or three really good ones, the top guys might get less and the #2 and #3 WRs along with the #1 & #2 TEs will get some of it.
OL is another example. Pay used to be somewhat equal, then LTs searched up the pay scale. RT's followed as LT salaries leveled a bit. Now guards and centers are catching up.
With so many different positions and skills on a team, some are always underpaid comparatively; but historically they catch up.
Not too long ago, many kickers and punters barely made minimum salaries. Then, an elite one gets a good contract, and others follow, taking cap dollars away from other positions.
Maybe its time for longsnappers to go on strike..........:-)
Jennings was knocking on 30 when he signed with the Vikes. We could sign Cobber to a 6 year deal and he'd only be there at the end of it. It probably makes the most sense for Cobb to take a 4-year deal, so he can hit the market again at 28. Would anyone be surprised with 4/32 or 4/40? Not me.
The Packers will make a solid offer to Cobb, which he will accept if he wants to stay in GB or reject if his objective is to get the top dollar possible. If he stays, people will see it as a "team-friendly" contract, but it won't be an insult, much like Nelson's contract. If GB signs Cobb to a deal as big as or bigger than Nelson's, I will expect to see Nelson's "sweetened" in a year or two if he is healthy and producing. They did that with Driver a couple times.
I don't think the situation with Cobb is very similar to GJ's. When Jennings deal was up, they had Nelson, Cobb and Jones under contract as proven receivers. Boykin looked interesting at least, and they still had Finley for another year. I felt all along the chance of him leaving was good, because he gave the impression of wanting a max contract, and didn't seem to care if he stayed in GB or not.
When Shields contract was up, there was great uncertainty about Williams and Hayward. They needed to sign Shields because he was the only proven CB who they knew to be healthy.
For Cobb, some of it might depend on what they think of Adams by the end of the year. Do they think he is ready to be a full-time starter? If the answer is "yes", there is no urgency to sign Cobb, especially if they still like Boykin in spite of his disappearance this year, and/or if they feel positively about Janis. Abbredaris brings nothing more to the table than the promise he had last year, and maybe less because of the ACL to get past.
My take? I think both sides will want to get a deal done, so it will happen. It could be a "three year special" like the Packers often seem to come up with. That might have appeal for Cobb, too, getting another bite of the apple as he enters the prime years age-wise for an NFL player.
I think the Packers are thinner now at receiver than any year since 2008, especially if you include TE in the picture. And the effectiveness of the passing attack depends on their ability to spread defenses out and expose their weak points. Boykin has been inconsistent, and I haven't yet seen from Adams the kind of flash that Jennings showed in his first year. Adams might turn out to be a really good one, but he looks like he still needs to grow into the position. Behind Nelson, Cobb and Adams the Packers have a bunch of unknowns. I wouldn't be surprise to see GB overpay (at least by their standards) for Cobb given the lack of proven receivers behind him.
I agree that the WR group is a bit thin. When three of the top 5 leave in two years it is bound to thin things out a bit because their replacements are unknown
It is difficult to compare Adams and Jennings, they are quite different. But statistically their rookie years are not far apart:
Jennings as a rookie had - 45/632/3TDs
Adams is on pace to have - 43/458/5TDs
and Jennings did it as mostly a starter, because the Packers had Driver and not much else. Ferguson played only 4 games, Koren Robinson played a month before being suspended the rest of the year, the TE was Bubba Franks and beyond that they had guys like Carlyle Holiday and Ruvell Martin.
Adams won't be another Greg Jennings, but he could be another James Jones, or better. That is probably a more suitable replacement for Cobb than a Jennings-type would be anyway.
But I hope they keep Cobb.
Whoa...Ferguson, Robinson, Martin....that should be incentive enough right there to resign Cobb.
I believe Cobb is someone who understands the value of a great QB more than most WRs, since he played the position in college. He has witnessed the utter disappearance of Greg Jennings after he left Green Bay. He has witnessed how Donald Driver has made himself an icon in the community by staying with the Packers and not venturing out for the biggest deal available. He has witnessed how a connection to one QB has made Jordy Nelson an elite WR in the game.
The salary cap situation for Green Bay was far different when Jennings went to Minnesota. The cap was flat and we had several franchise players to get signed long term. Today, the cap is starting to swell again from new TV deals and the key players to the franchise are under contract already. The end of Finley's career basically ensured that Cobb will remain a Packer IMO. Thompson is not going to let Cobb walk...and Cobb seems smart enough to grasp his best chance at earning another hefty payday in 4-5 years is to stay with Green Bay.
Patler, ever since the Packers drafted Adams, I've told my family and friends he's the next Jordy Nelson. He's big, deceptively quick and can catch anything in the vicinity. They also both caught over 120 balls their last year in college. Jordy I think 122 and Adams in the 130s? I don't know, its always been my go to comparison. What do you think of that comparison?
From what little I have seen so far with the Packers, I don't know if Adams has the down field ability that Nelson has. That's why I think of him more like Jones, a guy who might break some runs, but will be more effective running the short and intermediate routes. But, time will tell. I don't remember much about how Nelson looked as a rookie.
Adams is his own player. James jones, physically, is a decent comparison. Instincts, hands, natural talent..... Adams is more like Jennings or Cobb. He knows how to play. I think he's going to be a hell of a player.
To me, he has a similar style to Larry Fitzgerald. I don't think he'll be that good, but in that mold, the instincts and hands and strength..
I think he may be slightly more athletic than Jones...but the comparison there works. Adams needs 2 years to develop. He played against poor competition in college, and the jump to the NFL will be a large learning curve. His ceiling is dependent on his work ethic. If he puts in the time this offseason, he will lay the foundation to make an even larger jump after his 2nd season. He is the perfect physical compliment to Cobb and Nelson...where one is best in space and the other is best as a deep threat.
If the Packers retain Cobb, they potentially will have the NFL's best trio of WRs for awhile.
Not a huge fan of the Jones comparison; I think Adams runs much better routes and has a level of skills that will get developed way above James Jones.
Adams will be a better WR
Anyone know where Cobb lives? Print this out and slip it under his door.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...derss-success/
Cobb (slot) is a different receiver than Adams (outside), so it's hard to compare what Cobb is to what Adams may be. It's unlikely that Adams will ever be the slot receiver that Cobb is.
Wasn't it McGinn who wrote an article at the start of the year, expressing the opinion that Adams might be best-suited to the slot, and might turn out to be the reason the Packers would not bring back Cobb? I think it was in the article where he discussed that Cobb seemed to be most productive on broken plays and not very productive running the actual slot-receiver routes.
That is accurate.
Cobb has had trouble separating b/c he's not the great route runner that Jennings was. How great was Jennings? Check this out:
http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view4/128...ngs-ownd-o.gif
I think Cobb is the most underrated football player in the country, and I hope he is healthy for next Saturday's game against the Badgers. I just love that guy.