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Originally Posted by
3irty1
Well I googled for it and the number I saw was 40%. I'm sure it is growing but by no stretch of even your imagination could a smartphone be considered "essential to the average consumer" nor should their manufacturers be labeled as "recession proof." As for all your futurist stuff, we'll see but the prediction that iphones will replace the windows PC's and laptops currently used in business within 5 years reeks of typical fanboy none sense.
I have no idea if it will be an iPhone. It probably won't be. 10 years is a long way away. One thing is for sure, though: It will be a smart phone in a dock. That one you can write in ink. That's happening.
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Apple ever being undervalued is about as likely as ever getting good superbowl odds on the Dallas Cowboys--the fan bases of each make it impossible. All financial institutions that I know of are based on the idea that humans are always logical with their money. Humans of course are actually human with their money and the stock market is a way to capitalize on such. Apple has such an unparalleled following of loyal fans that the stock will always be extra risky just because of that. If its not a bubble already it is virtually guaranteed to become one eventually. You're citing stock information that you got off of appleinsider.com for beltsakes... you understand the conflict of interest there right?
Go to finance.yahoo.com and look at the PE. Look at the PEG. Look at the articles they link to analysts. You'll see 12 month estimates in the 600s. Those are conservative in my opinion. My love of Apple products makes it a smart decision to consider investing. My knowledge of basic math and economics makes it a smart decision to invest. I wouldn't invest in something just because I like their products. I have to see the value in it. Let's say hypothetical I was a staunch Windows supporter... I would still think that AAPL is a great investment because the math behind it makes sense. The PE and PEG are so out of whack and their forecasts are simply awesome. If it weren't for AAPL, I would have a ton of money in GE because it is extremely undervalued right now as well when you factor in their dividends. That is a fantastic investment now.
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I'd buy too if I seriously thought that iphones and ipads were going to replace all phones, all educational and buisness computing devices, and all pants. The main problem I have with that is that it's insane. Almost as insane as saying an expensive and luxurious cell phone is essential to most people. I'm sure in the Dutch Golden age people probably said stuff like this:
iPad is going to own education. You wait and see. It's already happening. Smart phones are quickly killing the feature phone. 5 years from now, the low end feature phone will be a smart phone of today.
You're not looking forward. You're looking at today and the past. This technology is evolving FAST. You should follow some of the execs of these companies on Twitter. Rahul Sood @rahulsood is an excellent example. He's an exec from MS that gets it. An excellent follow on general business/technology stuff. He's a change agent who gets it. This is a post PC world. Companies are either going to evolve or die. NOW is the time to act, not 5 years from now when the wheels are too far in motion.
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"The economy? Tulips have blown up as much as anything in a down economy. People need tulips, and in the post-war era, people "need" multi-colored tulips. This isn't going to change. It's naive to expect the explosive growth of tulips to stop or even slow. Simply ridiculous, in my opinion. This boat isn't stopping anytime soon."
What?
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To make a killing the likes of which you are predicting in the market a company has to do better than the vast majority thinks it will. I do expect apple to continue to blow up, then I expect it to pop. Go ahead and bet your bottom dollar on it and ride it to prosperity, just watch it closely and get out before appleinsider.com tells you to.
Well obviously, everything that goes up comes down. That doesn't mean it's happening today or tomorrow. They have this market by the balls and are so far ahead of the competition they will kick ass for at least 3-4 more years. AAPL is gonna hit 1000. It's a very safe bet for the next few years. Google doesn't understand user experience, so they don't have a chance long term.... Microsoft is Apple's biggest threat in this space because Windows Phone 7 and Windows 8 are beautiful and innovative. Google has made the new beige box. Crazy to think that MS gets it before Google, but then again they have visionary execs like Rahul Sood who understand that user experience is king.
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Not sure what you mean by soon but as long as there are people who will only pay between $15 and $40 per month for a phone there will be dumb phones. Right now that number is over half of the population. I've never used an android phone but you know that linux is my jam so that last sentence is probably lost on me. Linux is a pretty big umbrella to label all of it as a "horrible experience on a computer." My girlfriend and 3.5 year old neighbor girl both use ubuntu 11.04 without complaints.
Ubuntu is still a disaster for the average consumer. The user experience isn't there. To be fair, I haven't used it since Jaunty Jackalope, so perhaps you know longer have to use apt-get and what not to install stuff.
Steve Jobs was right in his assessment that file systems and computers in general are too hard. Of course, we're tech savvy so we understand it, and are capable of using them just fine. That doesn't mean that they're designed in the right way, that means that they're designed in a way that we are familiar with and can use. The Post-PC world is changing this game. App stores and sandboxed applications are changing this game. iCloud, automatic document synching, etc are changing this game. In OS 10.7, you don't even have to save documents. It's pretty wild, but the OS just handles it for you. When you think about it, why wasn't it like this the entire time?? The game is changing man. The age of user experience is upon us. MS and Apple get it. Windows 8 looks incredible when you run things in the Metro UI skin. Hopefully most applications can run in it.
Data plans are a rip right now, I agree. Wireless broadband internet is going to surpass wired broadband soon, and prices will come down and competition and new technology adoption occurs. LTE is cheaper to provide than 3G, for example. By 2015 mobile internet use will surpass wired. http://www.bgr.com/2011/09/12/u-s-to...2015-idc-says/
Dumb phones are going to go away. You can be assured of that.
Crazy times we're living in. The world is changing more rapidly then ever. Technology is in a renaissance and it's a great thing. I was reading a blog post about how we've entered a time where technology is fast enough now that what differentiates between the products is user experience. While I don't agree that tech is adequately fast (Hardware constantly needs to be improved, this is something that I love about Apple, there mobile chips smoke the competition - this pushes tech forward), it's pretty crazy to think that we've entered a time where everyone can essentially be on a level playing field in terms of hardware speed and reasonably close on price, and we'll see who succeeds based on who can provide the best experience to the user. Ultimately, I think this is going to be a problem with Android. I don't think people want a Tron UI (honeycomb), and I don't think people should have to use advanced task manager to manage there memory. With WP7 and iOs, the OS provides a clean, fast interface and gets out of the way. It's a beautiful thing.
Patty, I agree about the expectations and the market dictating the price. The market will correct itself, though, and that's when we'll make our big time money. GE and Apple's PE is all out of whack right now. Anybody with a pair of eyes with the names of large, successful companies can see this easily.