Official 2024 NFL Draft Thread

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Originally Posted by Frozen Tundra

We can likely get a better OT in the 2nd than we can a CB and as you say, the need at CB is greater. This is a good year to move up.

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OT specifically there is really no need other than depth. Off ball LB would probably be the biggest NEED on the roster. But RG is a gaping hole right now and taking the best OL available when we pick likely improves that to a solid pro at worst. 2nd safety is also a monster hole which is why I'm on board the DeJean train. He is that 2nd S who also can be the slot CB. He is a moving piece in the secondary who can do it all much like McKinny. 2 of those guys together spells headaches for QBs around the league.

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Originally Posted by bobblehead

OT specifically there is really no need other than depth. Off ball LB would probably be the biggest NEED on the roster. But RG is a gaping hole right now and taking the best OL available when we pick likely improves that to a solid pro at worst. 2nd safety is also a monster hole which is why I'm on board the DeJean train. He is that 2nd S who also can be the slot CB. He is a moving piece in the secondary who can do it all much like McKinny. 2 of those guys together spells headaches for QBs around the league.

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I'm pretty much in full agreement with everything you say here.

Linebacker is a huge need that for some reason we never seem to discuss here. When we first hired Hafley, I spent hours deepdiving on him - looking up podcasts where he was interviewed over the last few years, youtube videos of coaching clinics where he spoke, youtubes of meetings he held with his players and coaching staffs at both Boston College and Ohio State (especially Ohio State, because he was DC there and went into a lot of detail on his defensive philosophy), and everything else I could dig up.

I tried to develop a sense of what kind of defense he's going to build, and one thing I came away with very strongly is that 2 of our 3 most immediate needs on D are an aggressive, all-purpose offball LB and a versatile safety to pair with McKinney. Which is why I am totally OK with Gute giving up a 3rd or maybe even late 2nd to move up for DeJean.

Trouble with that approach is, it doesn't do anything to solve the linebacker problem. And I have to admit, I'm kind of at a loss on that one, because this is not exactly the Year of The Linebacker. I'm really puzzled why Gute hasn't done anything at all in free agency with that one; they're not exactly thicker than mosquitoes, but some of these guys would at least be upgrades for what we have now. As in most such cases, I just assume the man knows one hell of a lot more than I do about the whole thing, and has made the best plan he could. Just wish I knew what it is.

One scenario I'm imagining is moving up for DeJean in the first, taking Edgerrin Cooper at 41, and OT at 58. We're not going to even get a sniff at Joe Alt or a half dozen other of the OTs at that spot, but honestly at #58, this is a year we coud still get an OT that would be late 1st most years, which is as high as we've ever drafted an OT since Bulaga.

Or, move up for DeJean, take an OT at 41, and a lesser LB like Colson or Wilson at 58.

Or some combination that skips DeJean, prioritizes OT and LB, and goes for Cole Bishop late in the 2nd. I don't think he'll last til Round 3, but I think he would be a good substitute for DeJean. This is not a good year for safeties, and safety is just generally a really tough position to project, but there are a lot of things I like about Bishop. He has the 4.45 speed to cover sideline to sideline, but is an eager and agressive banger in the box, and can line up anywhere in any coverage. May not have the fluid hips to go deep with a #1 WR, but if that's his biggest weakness, I could live with it.

What do you think of Bishop, Bobble? How do you see him? Like you, DeJean is the guy I see as #1 priority at that position this year, but we can't always get everything. If DeJean is out of our price range, who do favor as a poor man's DeJean?

Bishop is definitely on the radar. He tested really well, but I'm not sure he was exposed to the competition you would like for a guy stepping right in to start. Honestly I think Gutes feels the roster is "ok" right now and while he might reach for DeJean as the "perfect piece", if its not there he could just draft BPA all the way.

Off ball LBers are kind of like RBs to me. Instincts/motor trump athleticism. You can find decent ones all over the place and the key to their success is often keeping them clean. I'd love a draft that goes DeJean, PWilson, JMorgan without trading. Or maybe its more likely to go DeJean, JMorgan, ECooper. In any event what I expect from Gutes is something completely unpredicted by any of us.

Scarcity at LB in the draft is less real than imagined. Some teams like SF can identify and develop talent there. Others can't. We'll see if it changes with Hafley. There are viable LBs coming out -- maybe not superstars, but guys Hafley can make work.

Kind of like GB with linemen and receivers (not to mention QB1s). The real problem is developing guys coming out. Some teams do, others don't. GB has a few weaknesses over the years; better than most teams.

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Originally Posted by bobblehead

Bishop is definitely on the radar. He tested really well, but I'm not sure he was exposed to the competition you would like for a guy stepping right in to start. Honestly I think Gutes feels the roster is "ok" right now and while he might reach for DeJean as the "perfect piece", if its not there he could just draft BPA all the way.

Off ball LBers are kind of like RBs to me. Instincts/motor trump athleticism. You can find decent ones all over the place and the key to their success is often keeping them clean. I'd love a draft that goes DeJean, PWilson, JMorgan without trading. Or maybe its more likely to go DeJean, JMorgan, ECooper. In any event what I expect from Gutes is something completely unpredicted by any of us.

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For what it's worth, I've read two Gutekunst interviews in the last few days in which he was asked about safeties, and he's specifically said he prioritizes versatility - a guy who can go sideline to sideline and cover fast WRs if he's playing deep, or just as easily come down into the box and thump a running back. He wants a guy who's basically 1B to McKinney's 1A, so the DC has the widest variety of options for what looks he gives the QB.

In both interviews, he later said (when asked about Dejean) that DeJean is very close to that safety. For whatever it may be worth.

I don't think we get him without trading up, so I guess the question would be, how far does he have to slip before Gute decides he's worth a mid-round pick. I don't think Bishop checks as many boxes as DeJean, though, but... you can't always have everything.

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Originally Posted by Jaire

Scarcity at LB in the draft is less real than imagined. Some teams like SF can identify and develop talent there. Others can't. We'll see if it changes with Hafley. There are viable LBs coming out -- maybe not superstars, but guys Hafley can make work.

Kind of like GB with linemen and receivers (not to mention QB1s). The real problem is developing guys coming out. Some teams do, others don't. GB has a few weaknesses over the years; better than most teams.

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I agree. Payton Wilson is the wildcard for me. He played the last 2 seasons without injury and had insane production then put up elite combine numbers. If he had zero injury history why wouldn't he be comped as a bigger Devin White or Devin Bush? He is older, but if you look at him as a 2 contract guy you are still done with him right around his age 30/31 season. They grabbed Wyatt at the end of the first. While the age/injury doesn't have him as a top 10 like the Devin's, everything else about him is comparable. If Gutes wants to finish the transition to 4-3 he could pull that trigger, or even trade back with the intention of pulling it.

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Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefter

ESPN content producer @PaulHembo calculated the percentage of 1st-round picks that “hit” or “miss,” based upon whether that player signed a second contract with the team that drafted them.

The data encompasses the 20 drafts spanning 2000-2019. Here are the positional hit rates:

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Originally Posted by Joemailman

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GL7JiG0X...jpg&name=small

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I know Myers was a second round pick, but still, ouch.

Also, I saw this quote from Gutey: "I think you have to be very careful of falling too in love with individual players. I think you have to be careful of that."

Which is what we fans do, and why we get pissed when they don't take "our" guy.

The example given was last year, when Jayden Reed was available when the Packers picked in the second, but they traded down twice before they took him. This was because had he been gone, they would've, according to Guter, been comfortable taking Tucker Kraft there, because the team had similar values assigned to both players.

Myers is an average NFL starter. He'd be above average if he were consistent - some plays he's All-Pro, others he's almost unplayable.

I think as fans it's ok to have draft crushes, but I'd be wary of GMs (or owners) who have draft crushes; that's dangerous. What Gute did with Reed reminds me of how TT got Lacy. If you can get a guy you like even after trading down, that's a win. Gute turned that original pick (which turned out to be Brian Branch) into Reed, Wicks and Brooks. Branch is a good player but I'll take that trade any day.

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Originally Posted by run pMc

Myers is an average NFL starter. He'd be above average if he were consistent - some plays he's All-Pro, others he's almost unplayable.

I think as fans it's ok to have draft crushes, but I'd be wary of GMs (or owners) who have draft crushes; that's dangerous. What Gute did with Reed reminds me of how TT got Lacy. If you can get a guy you like even after trading down, that's a win. Gute turned that original pick (which turned out to be Brian Branch) into Reed, Wicks and Brooks. Branch is a good player but I'll take that trade any day.

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Yeah; that one trade probably gave us as much of a return as some teams' entire draft. Heck, I can think of a couple of fairly recent drafts right here in Green Bay that didn't improve the team as much as that trade, or at least close to it.

I’m still calling it. If I were the bears I’d have traded down 1-2 spots and taken JJ McCarthy. The consensus top 3 picks for qb don’t look all that ready or threatening imo.

Last mock draft for me on Fanspeak.
25: R1 P25 OT JC Latham - Alabama
41: R2 P9 OT Graham Barton - Duke
57: R2 P25 S Tyler Nubin - Minnesota
88: R3 P24 LB Payton Wilson - NC State
91: R3 P27 RB Braelon Allen - Wisconsin
125: R4 P25 CB Mike Sainristil - Michigan
169: R5 P34 LB Ty'Ron Hopper - Missouri
201: R6 P25 CB Myles Harden - South Dakota
219: R6 P43 S Evan Williams - Oregon
245: R7 P25 WR Zakhari Franklin - UTSA
255: R7 P35 DL Malcolm Ray - Florida State

don't be stupid and think you don't have to watch the draft until 10 ET or 9 central

we have the ammo to move all the way up to around pick 10 if gutey wants to

we could be drafting at any point tonight, or not at all

Dianna Russini
@DMRussini

The 49ers have had conversations with teams, including with one picking in the top 10, about trading either of their prized wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel in an effort to move up in the first round, per sources.

Dianna Russini
@DMRussini

The Chicago Bears are very open for business at 9 and telling teams they are ready to move for the right price, per source.

I've been expecting the Bears to move down. They currently don't have a 2nd round pick.

The Purple Persuasion
@TPPSkol

According to
@TonyPauline
, “the #Vikings are starting to move into panic mode as their recent attempts to trade up for a QB have been rebuffed” ������

He says Byron Murphy II is the target at pick No. 11 if they continue to get shut out.

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Originally Posted by Joemailman

The Purple Persuasion
@TPPSkol

According to
@TonyPauline
, “the #Vikings are starting to move into panic mode as their recent attempts to trade up for a QB have been rebuffed” ������

He says Byron Murphy II is the target at pick No. 11 if they continue to get shut out.

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no worries they have sam darnold lol

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Originally Posted by Joemailman

Dianna Russini
@DMRussini

The 49ers have had conversations with teams, including with one picking in the top 10, about trading either of their prized wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel in an effort to move up in the first round, per sources.

Dianna Russini
@DMRussini

The Chicago Bears are very open for business at 9 and telling teams they are ready to move for the right price, per source.

I've been expecting the Bears to move down. They currently don't have a 2nd round pick.

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They also only have 4 picks total. That team has way, way too many holes to not move back with their #9 and gather up a couple more picks.

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Originally Posted by bobblehead

Bishop is definitely on the radar. He tested really well, but I'm not sure he was exposed to the competition you would like for a guy stepping right in to start. Honestly I think Gutes feels the roster is "ok" right now and while he might reach for DeJean as the "perfect piece", if its not there he could just draft BPA all the way.

Off ball LBers are kind of like RBs to me. Instincts/motor trump athleticism. You can find decent ones all over the place and the key to their success is often keeping them clean. I'd love a draft that goes DeJean, PWilson, JMorgan without trading. Or maybe its more likely to go DeJean, JMorgan, ECooper. In any event what I expect from Gutes is something completely unpredicted by any of us.

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So now we trade up for DeJean and either ECoop or PWilson slides to us and I look smart for a day until I open my mouth again!!