2023 2nd Round Pick #45 Luke Musgrave

Luke Musgrave

6'6"
253 lbs
Oregon State

Pre-Draft Analysis
Musgrave is a tall tight ends with big hands to pluck the ball out of the air and the body to make contested catches. He's a vertical threat who ran the fourth-fastest 40-yard dash out of the tight ends at the NFL combine. He transitions upfield smoothly and shows good burst after the catch. Musgrave is not a polished route runner on tape but flashed at the Senior Bowl and has the talent to continue to improve in that area. -- Steve Muench

Matt Miller's NFL comp: Mike Gesicki
Post-Draft Analysis
The Packers' run of not selecting pass-catchers in Round 1 but committing to them on Day 2 continues -- even with a new quarterback under center. Musgrave is versatile with experience both in line and in the slot. He is coming off a season-ending knee injury and had just two touchdowns in his career, but Musgrave has true vertical threat ability. -- Miller

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvKd-FCRfhA

I read he was clocked as the fastest tight end to play at the senior bowl since they started tracking speeds. 20.05mph. I couldn’t find the fastest te speed from last year in the nfl, but the second fastest was kittle at 20.00. So this kid can run.

NFL scout to Packer Central: “That’s a tough pick. Dude hasn’t been very productive. But, he has the physical tools (size and speed). Gutey has a type.” Can he block? “No, and his hands are shaky. But he’s got ‘wow’ to him.”

Packers vice president of player personnel Jon-Eric Sullivan: Big, fast tight end. Excited about what he brings to the table in terms of speed, ability to stretch the field. Good kid, football background. He’s got a relative that’s the offensive coordinator at Cal. Comes from a football background, smart kid, wired right.

The Athletic’s Dane Brugler: An impressive size/speed athlete, Musgrave runs like a gazelle, and his lacrosse and skiing backgrounds translate to football with his core strength and hip fluidity as both a pass catcher and blocker. He blocks with outstanding body control and leverage to be a physical edge setter and engage defenders at the second and third levels.


Athlon: He's a big target with an elite combination of size, speed and athleticism, a matchup nightmare for opponents. He's a fluid mover who can break off routes and create separation, but he's most dangerous ripping up the seam, where linebackers can't run with him.

NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah: He is more of a home run hitter than an option-route player at this point in his development. He is consistent catching balls on his frame, but he struggles to reel in low passes when on the move. After the catch, he has the speed to pull away. He is a willing blocker and can effectively shield/wall off at the point of attack.


Pro Football Focus: It's a shame we saw only two games of Musgrave before an undisclosed knee injury cost him the rest of the 2022 season. The senior tight end was balling with 11 catches for 169 yards and a score over that span. He's the best athlete at the position in the class, boasting the kind of speed and agility to separate from defensive backs.

Sports Info Solutions: Musgrave projects as a starting Y-TE at the next level in a system that allows him to be an inline blocker and run a varied route tree. He can make catches underneath or use his speed to stretch the defense. His blocking is just sufficient at the moment, but he has the traits to develop in that area.


Sports Info Solutions scout Nathan Cooper: He’s tough [to assess because he played in only two games in 2022]. The first thing you see with him is he’s super-long, athletic. He’s a receiving mismatch. You’re going to come in right away and look to him to be a mismatch on a lot of linebackers. Obviously, has the size on a lot of safeties, as well. He needs a lot of work in the blocking game, he needs to get stronger. He’s super-resilient. If he misses a block, he’ll come back and get it done the next time. So, he has that competitiveness, he has that willingness, so it'll eventually come for him.


Greg Cosell, The 33rd Team: Musgrave is one of the best TE prospects in the 2023 draft class primarily due to his ability as a receiver, although his extensive experience as an attached blocker in the run game - while improvement is needed - positions him well to be a complete multi-dimensional player at the next level. … NFL teams will feature Musgrave detached in space and in motion, where he can get free access off the LOS playing to his strengths as a receiver, but he can be attached, which allows him to be a factor in the shot play vertical passing game where his route running speed can be used.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Joemailman

NFL scout to Packer Central: “That’s a tough pick. Dude hasn’t been very productive. But, he has the physical tools (size and speed). Gutey has a type.” Can he block? “No, and his hands are shaky. But he’s got ‘wow’ to him.”

Packers vice president of player personnel Jon-Eric Sullivan: Big, fast tight end. Excited about what he brings to the table in terms of speed, ability to stretch the field. Good kid, football background. He’s got a relative that’s the offensive coordinator at Cal. Comes from a football background, smart kid, wired right.

The Athletic’s Dane Brugler: An impressive size/speed athlete, Musgrave runs like a gazelle, and his lacrosse and skiing backgrounds translate to football with his core strength and hip fluidity as both a pass catcher and blocker. He blocks with outstanding body control and leverage to be a physical edge setter and engage defenders at the second and third levels.


Athlon: He's a big target with an elite combination of size, speed and athleticism, a matchup nightmare for opponents. He's a fluid mover who can break off routes and create separation, but he's most dangerous ripping up the seam, where linebackers can't run with him.

NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah: He is more of a home run hitter than an option-route player at this point in his development. He is consistent catching balls on his frame, but he struggles to reel in low passes when on the move. After the catch, he has the speed to pull away. He is a willing blocker and can effectively shield/wall off at the point of attack.


Pro Football Focus: It's a shame we saw only two games of Musgrave before an undisclosed knee injury cost him the rest of the 2022 season. The senior tight end was balling with 11 catches for 169 yards and a score over that span. He's the best athlete at the position in the class, boasting the kind of speed and agility to separate from defensive backs.

Sports Info Solutions: Musgrave projects as a starting Y-TE at the next level in a system that allows him to be an inline blocker and run a varied route tree. He can make catches underneath or use his speed to stretch the defense. His blocking is just sufficient at the moment, but he has the traits to develop in that area.


Sports Info Solutions scout Nathan Cooper: He’s tough [to assess because he played in only two games in 2022]. The first thing you see with him is he’s super-long, athletic. He’s a receiving mismatch. You’re going to come in right away and look to him to be a mismatch on a lot of linebackers. Obviously, has the size on a lot of safeties, as well. He needs a lot of work in the blocking game, he needs to get stronger. He’s super-resilient. If he misses a block, he’ll come back and get it done the next time. So, he has that competitiveness, he has that willingness, so it'll eventually come for him.


Greg Cosell, The 33rd Team: Musgrave is one of the best TE prospects in the 2023 draft class primarily due to his ability as a receiver, although his extensive experience as an attached blocker in the run game - while improvement is needed - positions him well to be a complete multi-dimensional player at the next level. … NFL teams will feature Musgrave detached in space and in motion, where he can get free access off the LOS playing to his strengths as a receiver, but he can be attached, which allows him to be a factor in the shot play vertical passing game where his route running speed can be used.

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Fritz, Packerrats: "Musgrave is a guy who drops like he got hit with a bag of cement every time an opponent attempts a tackle."

You don’t see many 253 lb guys who get tackled backwards nearly every time. Guys come up on him and grab him by the shoulders and instead of him using momentum to pull the guy forward, he gets flipped backwards and falls facing the other direction. I’ve never seen that. He seems to have negative yards after contact. And I know that’s impossible with forward progress, but he literally goes backwards. But Randy Moss was about the same so I guess if you can run and catch the deep ball, there is a little something to hang your hat on.

This kid is to TE what Christian Watson was to WR last year. The issue I have with that is that the WR position is largely based on athleticism while TE is far more varied. Even as athletic as this kid is, it will be hard for him to take the top off a defense. So he’s going to have to learn to win in space and run more precise routes.

To me, he’s an enormous project that has little chance of providing much on the field in 2023. He could eventually pan out to being a very good TE if he fulfills his potential, but Jordan Love needs some help now…especially from a pick this high.

He's a project for sure. He can run the seam route which they need with Tonyan gone.
I've heard some say his ceiling is Jimmy Graham which I can see if I squint really hard. Low floor too.

I'll say this: I like him better than Zach Kuntz.
Could be helpful in the RZ.

I think they'll limit what they put on his plate and he'll mostly be a receiver in Year 1. 6'6" guys who can run like him are a mismatch.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by run pMc

He's a project for sure. He can run the seam route which they need with Tonyan gone.
I've heard some say his ceiling is Jimmy Graham which I can see if I squint really hard. Low floor too.

I'll say this: I like him better than Zach Kuntz.
Could be helpful in the RZ.

I think they'll limit what they put on his plate and he'll mostly be a receiver in Year 1. 6'6" guys who can run like him are a mismatch.

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Damn, never heard the jimmy Graham comp, but that’s a good one if you’re looking at best case.

I'm not sure I buy the Jimmy Graham comparison, but he has that kind of size, speed, etc. and could become that kind of mismatch. I'm not sure that MLF would use him that way.
Mostly I'm hoping he can help out on 3rd and 6 or in the RZ. I think Musgrave has a lot of potential, and if they think he's wired right there's promise.

In Year 3 he could be a monster or busted out of the league. It's a swing for the fences.

Graham kind of fizzled out early. Years 2-4 were huge years. That’s the best optimistic comp I’ve seen though. That size and the vertical speed being his go to attribute. That’s Jimmy Graham for sure.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by run pMc

He's a project for sure. He can run the seam route which they need with Tonyan gone.
I've heard some say his ceiling is Jimmy Graham which I can see if I squint really hard. Low floor too.

I'll say this: I like him better than Zach Kuntz.
Could be helpful in the RZ.

I think they'll limit what they put on his plate and he'll mostly be a receiver in Year 1. 6'6" guys who can run like him are a mismatch.

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Cause J Graham thrived in this offense LOL

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jklowan

Cause J Graham thrived in this offense LOL

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Young Jimmy Graham was pretty darn good https://www.pro-football-reference.c...G/GrahJi00.htm

I don't think he's Jimmy Graham, that's just what some people were comparing him too. Comparing a draft pick to a 5-time Pro Bowler is silly and a stretch of a projection.

Not that they will be used the same, but here are Kelce's and Musgrave's RAS cards
https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=10944
https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=16667

Kid is athletic, but can he stay healthy? If so, he'll be a terror up the seam and if he can find holes in a zone defense. Word is players couldn't keep up with him on deep routes at the Senior Bowl.

He’s built like Jimmy Graham and has deep speed like that. He goes down easy like Graham and doesn’t cut and change direction well. Graham is a great comp. Best case.

Everyone and their mother is saying Kraft is a better player than Musgrave, which leads me to suspect that Musgrave will probably become a solid player.

lol two tight ends.

LaFleur draft. At least we didn't spend a first on one.

If they pan out, we'll see what LaFleur's offense really looks like in a year or two, earlier if lucky.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/...draft-by-round

This is interesting. Bust rate by position, by round.

Tight ends in the second round have a 50% chance of success. Kraft is more like a 2nd rounder. So we have a good shot at getting one and a decent shot of hitting on both.

It’s kind of fun to browse through the packers.com rookie camp photo gallery. Van Ness and the tight ends are big framed guys with athleticism. Kinda exciting to see such big athletes added to the team.

Bust rate is an interesting metric. You only have so many starting spots at each position. If GMs draft more players at a position on average than there are starting roles, you necessarily will have higher bust rates. In a way, it's a metric that shows how many players are drafted relative to the number of starting positions.

Of course it's more complex because longevity at a position is a factor as well as undrafted players that end up starting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N07Qc_0S6h8

Lots of breakdowns like this out there. I don't think it's a terrible pick, he's a big swing at the plate -- high upside guy who could cause problems for a lot of defenses.
I'm glad they didn't take a TE in R1, the positional value isn't there. I'm fine with them doubling up on TEs. More swings at the plate are good if you can bat about .300.

And big swings are a hell of a lot better than the pathetic bunt attempts they've been going at TE.

Really puts into perspective how freaky Calvin Johnson was.

Seeing Musgrave in uniform, it was hard to get a gauge of what kind of frame he had. But seeing the rookie camp photos, it looks like he could gain 15 lbs.

Never know tho. Some guys just can’t get much bigger. But it looks like there’s room to grow.


I wouldn’t necessarily want him playing at 267, maybe more like 260. But I’d like to see him become a good blocker so 252 seems too light.