Draft Grades

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft0...t&lid=tab2pos1

Minnesota's 2005 draft was given a consensus A grade at the time. ESPN rates it as an F draft now. Funny! I can't believe people still take anything from a draft grade given right after the draft.

These were the guys that Minnesota got that warranted an A grade at the time. It's laughable now.

Code:

2005 Draft Class Name Position Draft Pick Draft Team Current NFL Team '05 Grade '06 Grade '07 Grade Troy Williamson WR 1(7) Minnesota Jacksonville 69 54 62 Erasmus James DE 1(18) Minnesota Minnesota 73 62 56 Marcus Johnson OT 2(49) Minnesota Minnesota 69 59 59 Dustin Fox S 3(80) Minnesota Buffalo 62 62 55 Ciatrick Fason RB 4(112) Minnesota None 64 54 40 C.J. Mosley DT 6(191) Minnesota New York Jets 66 55 58 Adrian Ward CB 7(219) Minnesota None 40 40 40

My memory might be poor, but I have no idea how Minnesota earned an A for that draft after draft day. In retrospect, it's really deserving of the F. How are Troy Williamson, Erasmus James, Marcus Johnson, Dustin Fox, Ciatrick Fason, C.J. Mosley, and Adrian Ward an "A" draft class three Aprils ago?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lurker64

My memory might be poor, but I have no idea how Minnesota earned an A for that draft after draft day. In retrospect, it's really deserving of the F. How are Troy Williamson, Erasmus James, Marcus Johnson, Dustin Fox, Ciatrick Fason, C.J. Mosley, and Adrian Ward an "A" draft class three Aprils ago?

there were a lot of people out there that thought the williamson pick was a great one. i didn't see it at the time. but then again i thought they should have gone with mike williams. so what the hell do i know

james was suppose to be a huge steal, and fason i think was going to be the future of the franchise at RB

Williamson burned a fast 40. I remember looking up his stats at that time. He really never caught many balls in college. You have to get a better guy than that with the 7th pick.

Minnesota has rebounded in their last couple of drafts--mostly due to Peterson falling into their laps, but that has to be one of the worst drafts ever. I couple of the guys played, but a guy like Williamson probably hurt them more than helped them by playing.

And that draft got an A grade.

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarveyWallbangers

Minnesota has rebounded in their last couple of drafts--mostly due to Peterson falling into their laps, but that has to be one of the worst drafts ever. I couple of the guys played, but a guy like Williamson probably hurt them more than helped them by playing.

And that draft got an A grade.

I think if anything is proof that nobody should grade drafts right after they happen, it's the 2005 Vikings draft. It goes to show that as good as any draft might look on paper a day or two later, it's potentially abysmal 3 years later when people get around to looking at "NFL productivity" of these guys.

This might be the worst draft ever that received an "A" grade by pundits right after it happened.

This isn't proof that nobody should grade drafts immediately after they happen. It's proof that those projections could very well be abysmally wrong. People are still going to make predictions about the future, and many others are going to enjoy reading and debating them. That's what GM's are paid big money to be good at. Then, like in this case, we can go back and determine the credibility of those original predictions and/or the real ability of GMs/draft teams to execute their roles.

What it's proof of is that any amateur who does maybe 15 minutes homework can do as well using simple common sense as a paid media professional.

It also proves that all such projections are unpredictable.

As far as why that draft rated an "A" at the time, many posters on the old JSO site were drooling over Erasmus James - he was a monster, if he overcame the injury he was the next Reggie, etc, etc.

As for the Packers' grade for that draft now being a "C" that of course is dependent upon how Rodgers works out - but I think too that Collins and Coston also could still change that grade (but it's this year or bust). Sharper took a long time to develop - even into his third year people were on him - as did Rivera. Not saying these two will step up, but I believe it's not just wishful thinking.

Finally, I wonder how injury counts in terms of draft grades. It's not Ted's fault that Terrence Murphy - who was looking pretty darn good - ripped up his knee. Yet in the end he didn't work out. So whose grade is the draft grade, then?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fritz

As far as why that draft rated an "A" at the time, many posters on the old JSO site were drooling over Erasmus James - he was a monster, if he overcame the injury he was the next Reggie, etc, etc.

As for the Packers' grade for that draft now being a "C" that of course is dependent upon how Rodgers works out - but I think too that Collins and Coston also could still change that grade (but it's this year or bust). Sharper took a long time to develop - even into his third year people were on him - as did Rivera. Not saying these two will step up, but I believe it's not just wishful thinking.

Finally, I wonder how injury counts in terms of draft grades. It's not Ted's fault that Terrence Murphy - who was looking pretty darn good - ripped up his knee. Yet in the end he didn't work out. So whose grade is the draft grade, then?

I thought T-Murph had a spinal problem

Quote:

Originally Posted by falco

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fritz

As far as why that draft rated an "A" at the time, many posters on the old JSO site were drooling over Erasmus James - he was a monster, if he overcame the injury he was the next Reggie, etc, etc.

As for the Packers' grade for that draft now being a "C" that of course is dependent upon how Rodgers works out - but I think too that Collins and Coston also could still change that grade (but it's this year or bust). Sharper took a long time to develop - even into his third year people were on him - as did Rivera. Not saying these two will step up, but I believe it's not just wishful thinking.

Finally, I wonder how injury counts in terms of draft grades. It's not Ted's fault that Terrence Murphy - who was looking pretty darn good - ripped up his knee. Yet in the end he didn't work out. So whose grade is the draft grade, then?

I thought T-Murph had a spinal problem

Uh, I meant "spine." Really, I did.

Oops.

Quote:

Originally Posted by texaspackerbacker

What it's proof of is that any amateur who does maybe 15 minutes homework can do as well using simple common sense as a paid media professional.

It also proves that all such projections are unpredictable.

QFT.

Grading a draft immediately afterwards is a waste of time.

If ARod has a good year this year the Packers C grade will be a B or A, depending on how well ARod does.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cheesehead Craig

Quote:

Originally Posted by texaspackerbacker

What it's proof of is that any amateur who does maybe 15 minutes homework can do as well using simple common sense as a paid media professional.

It also proves that all such projections are unpredictable.

QFT.

Grading a draft immediately afterwards is a waste of time.

Other wastes of time:

- Guessing who the Packers are going to draft.

- Discussing which players are going to step up next year.

- Speculating on which teams are going to contend for a SB

But if we didn't do any of that, this board would go away.

You could wait until 3 years to grade a draft, but hell, my sister could figure it out at that point.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheesner

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cheesehead Craig

Quote:

Originally Posted by texaspackerbacker

What it's proof of is that any amateur who does maybe 15 minutes homework can do as well using simple common sense as a paid media professional.

It also proves that all such projections are unpredictable.

QFT.

Grading a draft immediately afterwards is a waste of time.

Other wastes of time:

- Guessing who the Packers are going to draft.

- Discussing which players are going to step up next year.

- Speculating on which teams are going to contend for a SB

But if we didn't do any of that, this board would go away.

You could wait until 3 years to grade a draft, but hell, my sister could figure it out at that point.

It's not so much the draft grades that this is targeted for. Some take them for what they are. Others think it proves that a GM is either really good or bad. Like saying Teddy really screwed up this draft because the experts all give it a C or D. Or saying the Vikings are going to be dangerous this year because they had such a great draft (based on meaningless draft grades). I must say that there aren't too many of those types on this board.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheesner

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cheesehead Craig

Quote:

Originally Posted by texaspackerbacker

What it's proof of is that any amateur who does maybe 15 minutes homework can do as well using simple common sense as a paid media professional.

It also proves that all such projections are unpredictable.

QFT.

Grading a draft immediately afterwards is a waste of time.

Other wastes of time:

- Guessing who the Packers are going to draft.

- Discussing which players are going to step up next year.

- Speculating on which teams are going to contend for a SB

But if we didn't do any of that, this board would go away.

You could wait until 3 years to grade a draft, but hell, my sister could figure it out at that point.

Is she single?

DT Anttaj Hawthorne (Oakland, grade out of college: 89), from Wisconsin is the highest-rated player out of college who is no longer in the NFL.

I thought this guy might be a hoss.

Badger DLineman look bad now, don't they?

Quote:

Originally Posted by KYPack

DT Anttaj Hawthorne (Oakland, grade out of college: 89), from Wisconsin is the highest-rated player out of college who is no longer in the NFL.

Didn't Hawthorne have substance abuse issues and serious questions about his motor coming out of college? I can't imagine going to the Raiders helped with any of those things. He was drafted in the 6th round, which seems a much more accurate evaluation of his NFL potential and career than his grade of 89. He turned out to be a guy who should have been drafted in the 6th.

I think this just points to the problem with grading drafts and players. By and large, NFL GMs and their scouting departments are much better judges of players than the people who write personnel evaluations or grade drafts. If writers were better talent evaluators than actual scouts and GMs, you'd think they would get hired by an NFL team.

It's also interesting that almost every team's grade went down. I think this points to a systemic problem of draft "experts" overvaluing players coming out of college. I mean, the Reggie Bush at #2 pick was generally regarded to be the steal of the century (despite costing a #2 overall pick). I wonder how good that one is going to look a year from now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lurker64

DT Anttaj Hawthorne (Oakland, grade out of college: 89), from Wisconsin is the highest-rated player out of college who is no longer in the NFL.

Didn't Hawthorne have substance abuse issues and serious questions about his motor coming out of college? I can't imagine going to the Raiders helped with any of those things. He was drafted in the 6th round, which seems a much more accurate evaluation of his NFL potential and career than his grade of 89. He turned out to be a guy who should have been drafted in the 6th.

[/quote]

Yes he did. I remember him being discussed quite a bit here in the draft thread, and I think quite a few wanted to see him taken by TT.

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarveyWallbangers

Or saying the Vikings are going to be dangerous this year because they had such a great draft (based on meaningless draft grades). I must say that there aren't too many of those types on this board.

Is it still ok to say that they're going to be dangerous because of all the great free agents they signed?

:lol: at what seems to have become the annual awarding of the Training Camp Paper Champions to the Vikings!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lurker64

It's also interesting that almost every team's grade went down. I think this points to a systemic problem of draft "experts" overvaluing players coming out of college. I mean, the Reggie Bush at #2 pick was generally regarded to be the steal of the century (despite costing a #2 overall pick). I wonder how good that one is going to look a year from now.

Yep, very few teams went up, the most was a full letter. Draft 'experts' really expect picks to pan out, especially the 1st rounders.

However for all the problems and flops, 200 out of 255 are still in the league after 3 years. It feels like it should be lower, but a lot of the players cut from one team pop up again on another.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guiness

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lurker64

DT Anttaj Hawthorne (Oakland, grade out of college: 89), from Wisconsin is the highest-rated player out of college who is no longer in the NFL.

Didn't Hawthorne have substance abuse issues and serious questions about his motor coming out of college? I can't imagine going to the Raiders helped with any of those things. He was drafted in the 6th round, which seems a much more accurate evaluation of his NFL potential and career than his grade of 89. He turned out to be a guy who should have been drafted in the 6th.

Yes he did. I remember him being discussed quite a bit here in the draft thread, and I think quite a few wanted to see him taken by TT.[/quote]

Anttaj had a pot issue.

Just another in the long line of disappointing badger linemen.

Almost to the point of now becoming part of NFL law..don't draft:

1. FSU lineman
2. Gator WRs
3. UW DL

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zool

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheesner

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cheesehead Craig

Quote:

Originally Posted by texaspackerbacker

What it's proof of is that any amateur who does maybe 15 minutes homework can do as well using simple common sense as a paid media professional.

It also proves that all such projections are unpredictable.

QFT.

Grading a draft immediately afterwards is a waste of time.

Other wastes of time:

- Guessing who the Packers are going to draft.

- Discussing which players are going to step up next year.

- Speculating on which teams are going to contend for a SB

But if we didn't do any of that, this board would go away.

You could wait until 3 years to grade a draft, but hell, my sister could figure it out at that point.

Is she single?

She is now, but both her husband and her boyfriend are up for parole soon.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lurker64

Quote:

Originally Posted by KYPack

DT Anttaj Hawthorne (Oakland, grade out of college: 89), from Wisconsin is the highest-rated player out of college who is no longer in the NFL.

Didn't Hawthorne have substance abuse issues and serious questions about his motor coming out of college? I can't imagine going to the Raiders helped with any of those things. He was drafted in the 6th round, which seems a much more accurate evaluation of his NFL potential and career than his grade of 89. He turned out to be a guy who should have been drafted in the 6th.

I think this just points to the problem with grading drafts and players. By and large, NFL GMs and their scouting departments are much better judges of players than the people who write personnel evaluations or grade drafts. If writers were better talent evaluators than actual scouts and GMs, you'd think they would get hired by an NFL team.

It's also interesting that almost every team's grade went down. I think this points to a systemic problem of draft "experts" overvaluing players coming out of college. I mean, the Reggie Bush at #2 pick was generally regarded to be the steal of the century (despite costing a #2 overall pick). I wonder how good that one is going to look a year from now.

Hey Lurk. I misread that at the site. It was worded like he was the 6th pick. that was Oakand's Michael Huff year (Ah, Tank!)

Reggie Bush is a valuable guy, but he's complimentary player. If you don't have him in space and in the right spots, he's ineffective.

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarveyWallbangers

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheesner

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cheesehead Craig

Quote:

Originally Posted by texaspackerbacker

What it's proof of is that any amateur who does maybe 15 minutes homework can do as well using simple common sense as a paid media professional.

It also proves that all such projections are unpredictable.

QFT.

Grading a draft immediately afterwards is a waste of time.

Other wastes of time:

- Guessing who the Packers are going to draft.

- Discussing which players are going to step up next year.

- Speculating on which teams are going to contend for a SB

But if we didn't do any of that, this board would go away.

You could wait until 3 years to grade a draft, but hell, my sister could figure it out at that point.

It's not so much the draft grades that this is targeted for. Some take them for what they are. Others think it proves that a GM is either really good or bad. Like saying Teddy really screwed up this draft because the experts all give it a C or D. Or saying the Vikings are going to be dangerous this year because they had such a great draft (based on meaningless draft grades). I must say that there aren't too many of those types on this board.

Agreed.

It just bugs me when people say that you can't tell how good a draft is until 3 years from now. No shit.

But if you have some football knowledge, you can make an educated guess and have an opinion. I don't have to wait 3 years to know that Parcells is an idiot if he drafts C Steve Justice out of Wake Forrest first overall. 1. He could have got him in the 3rd round. 2. He doesn't match their system. 3. There were much better OL available. 4. They didn't really need a center. Etc.

Although that is a ridiculous example, to varying degrees, you can analyze any draft pick.

Quote:

Originally Posted by KYPack

Reggie Bush is a valuable guy, but he's complimentary player. If you don't have him in space and in the right spots, he's ineffective.

Regardless, I have a hard time seeing how a "complimentary player" at #2 overall can be anything other than a disappointment.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guiness

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lurker64

Didn't Hawthorne have substance abuse issues and serious questions about his motor coming out of college? I can't imagine going to the Raiders helped with any of those things. He was drafted in the 6th round, which seems a much more accurate evaluation of his NFL potential and career than his grade of 89. He turned out to be a guy who should have been drafted in the 6th.

Yes he did. I remember him being discussed quite a bit here in the draft thread, and I think quite a few wanted to see him taken by TT.

He plummeted because of what you are talking about, I remember saying WTF quite a few times that day as he kept getting passed over (before I learned about the substance abuse issues). He was a beast at UW, that entire Dline was just plain ridiculous their last year, killing people.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheesner

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zool

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheesner

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cheesehead Craig

Quote:

Originally Posted by texaspackerbacker

What it's proof of is that any amateur who does maybe 15 minutes homework can do as well using simple common sense as a paid media professional.

It also proves that all such projections are unpredictable.

QFT.

Grading a draft immediately afterwards is a waste of time.

Other wastes of time:

- Guessing who the Packers are going to draft.

- Discussing which players are going to step up next year.

- Speculating on which teams are going to contend for a SB

But if we didn't do any of that, this board would go away.

You could wait until 3 years to grade a draft, but hell, my sister could figure it out at that point.

Is she single?

She is now, but both her husband and her boyfriend are up for parole soon.

Sweet, I like a challenge

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lurker64

Quote:

Originally Posted by KYPack

Reggie Bush is a valuable guy, but he's complimentary player. If you don't have him in space and in the right spots, he's ineffective.

Regardless, I have a hard time seeing how a "complimentary player" at #2 overall can be anything other than a disappointment.

I know what ya mean, Lurk.

But a guy like Bush can be worth it. He's no "meat man", he can't carry the mail. But man, he can set you up fine. Actually NO with a healthy Duece (& the rest of that O) was the perfect situation for Bush. They got deep in the play-offs with him doing his thing.

The next year, he had to carry the load. & he couldn't do it. A guy like Bush can only be used in the right situations. You can't try and make him into something he's not.

Worth the second pick in the draft?

If that's all you need to put your O over the top, yeah, he's worth it. He's got that kind of skill. But if you've got a bunch of holes in your offense, he's a luxury you can't afford.

Yeah, I think it was worth it for NO in their situation. What was a joke was they compared him with Sayers. Gale was the whole package. Inside outside, catch the ball, do it all. Bush couldn't carry Gale's jock.

I can't complain about TT 2005 performance. If T-Murph hadn't had that freak spinal condition, he was on his way IMHO. Something like Jennings.

Collins is solid, and we all saw his upside in that game against Chicago. In fact, TT hasn't drafted and kept anybody on the team that doesn't tease us with a great performance or two.

But sticking to the 2005 class, A-Rod will make or break it.

Yup, AROD will make or break 05
Right now ESPN has it graded with a C

It still really bothers me that Nottenheimer is our secondary coach.

IMO Collins was making progress the year he was gone
Even Carroll was showing a bit of improvement and then the virus came back