Vegas loves the Packers draft

It looks like the odds makers think the Green Bay Packers absolutely crushed the 2023 NFL draft. Early in the offseason....

The massive shift speaks volumes about what Vegas thinks of Brian Gutekunst’s 13 pick performance in the draft.

The national media is slowly becoming bullish as well. As draft grades roll in and national perception of Jordan Love rises, there’s plenty of reasons to believe that the Packers could have a better year than many originally expected...................

https://zonecoverage.com/2023/packer...he-2023-draft/

"The house always wins"

Just means more people are betting on the Packers vs Bears and Vikings since the draft. The Lions have lower odds too, but this could just be bets from Lions players.

The House always wins because it generally has better intel. Looking at the Packer roster, even if Love rises to the level of average, clearly the Packers are better than all but a handful of teams around the league. I got a little carried away with the doom and gloom myself with Rodgers gone, and of course, we'd be a lot better off with him as QB, but if Love is above average - remotely close to as good as a healthy Rodgers, the sky's the limit. Vegas apparently thinks the odds are good for that. I suspect a lot of the haters in here are somehow blinded by their hate and see it differently. A big whatever to that hahahaha.

I'm no expert, but the house wins because they take a cut. They don't give a shit who wins so long as the bets roughly balance out on each side. It's not about better Intel. It's about getting enough bets on each side

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Originally Posted by sharpe1027

I'm no expert, but the house wins because they take a cut. They don't give a shit who wins so long as the bets roughly balance out on each side. It's not about better Intel. It's about getting enough bets on each side

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Exactly, the house actually wants a 50/50 split in betting.

If JLove is 16th ranked QB and plays 17 games, the Packers are in the hunt for a playoff wild card spot and might get it. They have talent at a lot of positions. They don't have much on the DL for run defense, and safety is a concern but the offense could surprise.

If Love plays that well, a wild card spot would be very much on the low end of expectations. If he is average, the team ought to be top three in the conference/top five in the NFL. Will Love get to that level, though? I'd say about 50/50 or 40/60 on that.

They didn't make the playoffs with Rodgers last year.

Some people can't get it through their thick skulls that Rodgers was injured most of last year, not to even mention both rookie WRs plus Lazard and Tonyan out for large chunks of the season.

Rodgers was 27th in QBR, and 25th in yards per attempt. Defense was 18th in points allowed and 16th in yards allowed. They missed the playoffs by 1 game. If Love can get into top half of QB play, and defense can get into top 10, their chances of making the playoffs should be pretty good.

He shouldn't have been playing if he was that hurt, period.

The Packers will have injuries again this year, same as every year.

I don't really give a damn why he didn't play well. The point is the Packers almost made the playoffs with him and the defense being mediocre or worse. It's not a huge stretch to think Love could be better than 2022 Rodgers and the defense could be better than 2022.

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Originally Posted by Joemailman

I don't really give a damn why he didn't play well. The point is the Packers almost made the playoffs with him and the defense being mediocre or worse. It's not a huge stretch to think Love could be better than 2022 Rodgers and the defense could be better than 2022.

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and they have a much easier schedule this year

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sharpe1027

I'm no expert, but the house wins because they take a cut. They don't give a shit who wins so long as the bets roughly balance out on each side. It's not about better Intel. It's about getting enough bets on each side

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You and tex are both correct. The house definitely has better intel in sports betting though. Thus the term "trap line". The house factors public perception into the lines and in fact does take positions.

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Originally Posted by ThunderDan

Exactly, the house actually wants a 50/50 split in betting.

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Small town bookies, yes. LV/National superbooks no. They put out lines at times knowing the action will be lopsided, but they don't care because they have better intel/skills.

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Originally Posted by bobblehead

You and tex are both correct. The house definitely has better intel in sports betting though. Thus the term "trap line". The house factors public perception into the lines and in fact does take positions.

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Internet says that's a myth.

i hate that its come to this

we are now basing our expectations on "what the bettors think"

been watching it happen in england for soccer for years now. every single thing is based on "what the bettors think"

no more long discussions about our scheme vs theirs, or this player vs that, or what the weather is gonna do. we'll get, "vegas has the packers as a 2.5 point favorite, that is all you need to know"

Good point, Red.

What the bettors think about the Packers' draft class has nothing at all to do with how good said class will be.