Draft Grades

[HarveyWallbangers]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft0...t&lid=tab2pos1

Minnesota's 2005 draft was given a consensus A grade at the time. ESPN rates it as an F draft now. Funny! I can't believe people still take anything from a draft grade given right after the draft.

These were the guys that Minnesota got that warranted an A grade at the time. It's laughable now.

2005 Draft Class
Name 	Position 	Draft Pick 	Draft Team 	Current NFL Team 	'05 Grade 	'06 Grade 	'07 Grade
Troy Williamson 	WR 	1(7) 	Minnesota 	Jacksonville 	69 	54 	62
Erasmus James 	DE 	1(18) 	Minnesota 	Minnesota 	73 	62 	56
Marcus Johnson 	OT 	2(49) 	Minnesota 	Minnesota 	69 	59 	59
Dustin Fox 	S 	3(80) 	Minnesota 	Buffalo 	62 	62 	55
Ciatrick Fason 	RB 	4(112) 	Minnesota 	None 	64 	54 	40
C.J. Mosley 	DT 	6(191) 	Minnesota 	New York Jets 	66 	55 	58
Adrian Ward 	CB 	7(219) 	Minnesota 	None 	40 	40 	40

[Lurker64]

My memory might be poor, but I have no idea how Minnesota earned an A for that draft after draft day. In retrospect, it's really deserving of the F. How are Troy Williamson, Erasmus James, Marcus Johnson, Dustin Fox, Ciatrick Fason, C.J. Mosley, and Adrian Ward an "A" draft class three Aprils ago?

[red]

My memory might be poor, but I have no idea how Minnesota earned an A for that draft after draft day. In retrospect, it's really deserving of the F. How are Troy Williamson, Erasmus James, Marcus Johnson, Dustin Fox, Ciatrick Fason, C.J. Mosley, and Adrian Ward an "A" draft class three Aprils ago?

there were a lot of people out there that thought the williamson pick was a great one. i didn't see it at the time. but then again i thought they should have gone with mike williams. so what the hell do i know

james was suppose to be a huge steal, and fason i think was going to be the future of the franchise at RB

[KYPack]

Williamson burned a fast 40. I remember looking up his stats at that time. He really never caught many balls in college. You have to get a better guy than that with the 7th pick.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Minnesota has rebounded in their last couple of drafts--mostly due to Peterson falling into their laps, but that has to be one of the worst drafts ever. I couple of the guys played, but a guy like Williamson probably hurt them more than helped them by playing.

And that draft got an A grade.

[Lurker64]

Minnesota has rebounded in their last couple of drafts--mostly due to Peterson falling into their laps, but that has to be one of the worst drafts ever. I couple of the guys played, but a guy like Williamson probably hurt them more than helped them by playing.

And that draft got an A grade.

I think if anything is proof that nobody should grade drafts right after they happen, it's the 2005 Vikings draft. It goes to show that as good as any draft might look on paper a day or two later, it's potentially abysmal 3 years later when people get around to looking at "NFL productivity" of these guys.

This might be the worst draft ever that received an "A" grade by pundits right after it happened.

[vince]

This isn't proof that nobody should grade drafts immediately after they happen. It's proof that those projections could very well be abysmally wrong. People are still going to make predictions about the future, and many others are going to enjoy reading and debating them. That's what GM's are paid big money to be good at. Then, like in this case, we can go back and determine the credibility of those original predictions and/or the real ability of GMs/draft teams to execute their roles.

[texaspackerbacker]

What it's proof of is that any amateur who does maybe 15 minutes homework can do as well using simple common sense as a paid media professional.

It also proves that all such projections are unpredictable.

[Fritz]

As far as why that draft rated an "A" at the time, many posters on the old JSO site were drooling over Erasmus James - he was a monster, if he overcame the injury he was the next Reggie, etc, etc.

As for the Packers' grade for that draft now being a "C" that of course is dependent upon how Rodgers works out - but I think too that Collins and Coston also could still change that grade (but it's this year or bust). Sharper took a long time to develop - even into his third year people were on him - as did Rivera. Not saying these two will step up, but I believe it's not just wishful thinking.

Finally, I wonder how injury counts in terms of draft grades. It's not Ted's fault that Terrence Murphy - who was looking pretty darn good - ripped up his knee. Yet in the end he didn't work out. So whose grade is the draft grade, then?

[falco]

As far as why that draft rated an "A" at the time, many posters on the old JSO site were drooling over Erasmus James - he was a monster, if he overcame the injury he was the next Reggie, etc, etc.

As for the Packers' grade for that draft now being a "C" that of course is dependent upon how Rodgers works out - but I think too that Collins and Coston also could still change that grade (but it's this year or bust). Sharper took a long time to develop - even into his third year people were on him - as did Rivera. Not saying these two will step up, but I believe it's not just wishful thinking.

Finally, I wonder how injury counts in terms of draft grades. It's not Ted's fault that Terrence Murphy - who was looking pretty darn good - ripped up his knee. Yet in the end he didn't work out. So whose grade is the draft grade, then?

I thought T-Murph had a spinal problem

[Fritz]

As far as why that draft rated an "A" at the time, many posters on the old JSO site were drooling over Erasmus James - he was a monster, if he overcame the injury he was the next Reggie, etc, etc.

As for the Packers' grade for that draft now being a "C" that of course is dependent upon how Rodgers works out - but I think too that Collins and Coston also could still change that grade (but it's this year or bust). Sharper took a long time to develop - even into his third year people were on him - as did Rivera. Not saying these two will step up, but I believe it's not just wishful thinking.

Finally, I wonder how injury counts in terms of draft grades. It's not Ted's fault that Terrence Murphy - who was looking pretty darn good - ripped up his knee. Yet in the end he didn't work out. So whose grade is the draft grade, then?

I thought T-Murph had a spinal problem

Uh, I meant "spine." Really, I did.

Oops.

[Cheesehead Craig]

What it's proof of is that any amateur who does maybe 15 minutes homework can do as well using simple common sense as a paid media professional.

It also proves that all such projections are unpredictable.

QFT.

Grading a draft immediately afterwards is a waste of time.

[LL2]

If ARod has a good year this year the Packers C grade will be a B or A, depending on how well ARod does.

[cheesner]

What it's proof of is that any amateur who does maybe 15 minutes homework can do as well using simple common sense as a paid media professional.

It also proves that all such projections are unpredictable.

QFT.

Grading a draft immediately afterwards is a waste of time.

Other wastes of time:

- Guessing who the Packers are going to draft.

- Discussing which players are going to step up next year.

- Speculating on which teams are going to contend for a SB

But if we didn't do any of that, this board would go away.

You could wait until 3 years to grade a draft, but hell, my sister could figure it out at that point.

[HarveyWallbangers]

What it's proof of is that any amateur who does maybe 15 minutes homework can do as well using simple common sense as a paid media professional.

It also proves that all such projections are unpredictable.

QFT.

Grading a draft immediately afterwards is a waste of time.

Other wastes of time:

- Guessing who the Packers are going to draft.

- Discussing which players are going to step up next year.

- Speculating on which teams are going to contend for a SB

But if we didn't do any of that, this board would go away.

You could wait until 3 years to grade a draft, but hell, my sister could figure it out at that point.

It's not so much the draft grades that this is targeted for. Some take them for what they are. Others think it proves that a GM is either really good or bad. Like saying Teddy really screwed up this draft because the experts all give it a C or D. Or saying the Vikings are going to be dangerous this year because they had such a great draft (based on meaningless draft grades). I must say that there aren't too many of those types on this board.

[Zool]

What it's proof of is that any amateur who does maybe 15 minutes homework can do as well using simple common sense as a paid media professional.

It also proves that all such projections are unpredictable.

QFT.

Grading a draft immediately afterwards is a waste of time.

Other wastes of time:

- Guessing who the Packers are going to draft.

- Discussing which players are going to step up next year.

- Speculating on which teams are going to contend for a SB

But if we didn't do any of that, this board would go away.

You could wait until 3 years to grade a draft, but hell, my sister could figure it out at that point.

Is she single?

[KYPack]

DT Anttaj Hawthorne (Oakland, grade out of college: 89), from Wisconsin is the highest-rated player out of college who is no longer in the NFL.

I thought this guy might be a hoss.

Badger DLineman look bad now, don't they?

[Lurker64]

DT Anttaj Hawthorne (Oakland, grade out of college: 89), from Wisconsin is the highest-rated player out of college who is no longer in the NFL.

Didn't Hawthorne have substance abuse issues and serious questions about his motor coming out of college? I can't imagine going to the Raiders helped with any of those things. He was drafted in the 6th round, which seems a much more accurate evaluation of his NFL potential and career than his grade of 89. He turned out to be a guy who should have been drafted in the 6th.

I think this just points to the problem with grading drafts and players. By and large, NFL GMs and their scouting departments are much better judges of players than the people who write personnel evaluations or grade drafts. If writers were better talent evaluators than actual scouts and GMs, you'd think they would get hired by an NFL team.

It's also interesting that almost every team's grade went down. I think this points to a systemic problem of draft "experts" overvaluing players coming out of college. I mean, the Reggie Bush at #2 pick was generally regarded to be the steal of the century (despite costing a #2 overall pick). I wonder how good that one is going to look a year from now.

[Guiness]

DT Anttaj Hawthorne (Oakland, grade out of college: 89), from Wisconsin is the highest-rated player out of college who is no longer in the NFL.

Didn't Hawthorne have substance abuse issues and serious questions about his motor coming out of college? I can't imagine going to the Raiders helped with any of those things. He was drafted in the 6th round, which seems a much more accurate evaluation of his NFL potential and career than his grade of 89. He turned out to be a guy who should have been drafted in the 6th.

[/quote]

Yes he did. I remember him being discussed quite a bit here in the draft thread, and I think quite a few wanted to see him taken by TT.

[Guiness]

Or saying the Vikings are going to be dangerous this year because they had such a great draft (based on meaningless draft grades). I must say that there aren't too many of those types on this board.

Is it still ok to say that they're going to be dangerous because of all the great free agents they signed?

at what seems to have become the annual awarding of the Training Camp Paper Champions to the Vikings!