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Quarterbacks and Fourth Quarter Comebacks
6/26/2006
Guest column by Jason McKinley
Competitive balance defines the NFL. Most games are still in doubt in the fourth quarter. Since 1996, 1,474 out of 2,598 regular season and postseason games have featured a team trailing by eight points or less in possession of the ball in the fourth quarter. In 603 of those 1,474 games, the trailing team won. Therefore, nearly a quarter of all victories in the last decade have been the result of late and dramatic rallies.
Quarterbacks are associated most strongly with comebacks. How many times was it said that John Elway “willed his team to victory†following a come-from-behind rally? Johnny Unitas is often credited with the creation of the two-minute offense. In his Hall of Fame career, Joe Montana overcame multiple fourth quarter deficits. In fact, Joe Montana overcame multiple fourth quarter deficits in the postseason alone. Hell, Joe Montana overcame multiple fourth-quarter deficits in the postseason even if you only count his two seasons with the Chiefs. Today, quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Brett Favre are discussed in heroic terms mainly because they’re able to pull out victories in situations where mere mortals would surely fail.
Obviously, many comeback attempts prove futile. While 603 games since 1996 have featured come-from-behind wins, another 1,322 games have ended with the close trailer still behind when the final gun sounded. Any instance in which a team had possession of the ball at some point in the fourth quarter and was trailing by eight points or less was considered for the study. This naturally would include any successful comeback regardless of the largest deficit faced – one can’t complete a twenty-point comeback without getting the score under 9 points at some time. It also gives a reasonable cut-off for failed comebacks: where one drive could potentially change the lead or send the game to overtime. On occasion a team will get the ball very early in the fourth quarter, then again later, and (very rarely) a third or fourth time, and be within one score every time. In this study, that is counted as only one failed game opportunity.
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We can start to figure this out by looking at the individual performance of quarterbacks in comeback situations. Over the past decade, no quarterback has had more fourth-quarter comebacks than Drew Bledsoe. Then again, no quarterback has had more fourth-quarter comeback opportunities than Bledsoe. Are Bledsoe’s 19 wins in 61 comeback chances more impressive than Donovan McNabb’s 12 in 27? A raw total says that Bledsoe is better, and a straight winning percentage says that McNabb is better. Neither seems like an ideal ranking tool.
A simple comparative ranking system can be formulated with the help of a statistical method known as a “t-test.†A t-test is generally used to test a statistical hypothesis against some population parameter. The result is given as a “p value,†where a lower p value indicates a more significant result. A t-test will usually reward a good average over a large number of trials more than a great average over a small number of trials, which is necessary in this study due to the wildly different and often very small sample sizes for each quarterback.
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We looked at every game from the past ten seasons to see which recent quarterbacks have been the best at rallying their teams back from a deficit. And although he was known for comebacks early in his career, the top comeback quarterback might surprise you: it’s Jake Plummer, slightly ahead of Peyton Manning and Vinny Testaverde. It’s a surprising conclusion, but that’s the kind of insight rational statistical analysis can provide.
Table 1. Top 10 quarterbacks at comebacks since 1996
Rank Quarterback Wins Losses
1 Jake Plummer 19 28
2 Peyton Manning 19 29
2 Vinny Testaverde 19 29
4 Tom Brady 13 8
5 Jon Kitna 15 23
6 Kerry Collins 17 30
7 Donovan McNabb 12 15
8 Marc Bulger 10 5
9 Jake Delhomme 10 12
9 Jay Fiedler 10 12
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Brett Favre is often cited as a master of the comeback. He has been above average over the last decade, but not by much. His 16-34 record is approximately one win better than would be expected – reasonably good, but not great.
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Originally Posted by Dabaddestbear
