Double Shot Power!
Double Shot Power!
Another comback game since 2000 was at Jax on a Sun or Mon night game. I believe he even ran in the winning TD himself.
As for the D giving up a lead late, how 'bout the '98 playoff game at SF? Favre drives them down the field and hooks up with Freeman for the score, only to see Young to TO with time expiring (of course after Rice had fumbled so the game was really over).
Essox, I think that was No. 3 in Patler's list.
Very, very, very painful, too.
This article is the ultimate "figures lie and liars figure" example. One of the problems with these examples is the fact that I'm not gonna check this guy's math and methology, cause I don't give a shit.
I'm sure he's off somewhere, because his conclusions are bullshit.
If my teams down by 4 with little time left and deep in their own end, I'll tell you who I want running the huddle and leading the charge:
1. Brett Favre - this crazy boy will kill himself to get the score
2. Joe Montana - Seen him do it, it was horrible, he beat my team
3. Tom Brady - Joe Cool Jr.
4. John Elway - I know, I hate the SOB too, but he probably should be #2.
The author, Jason McKinley can have :
1. Vinny from the Jets
2. Jon (the midget) Kitna Sorry Partial, but no.
3. Kerry Collins
4. Jay Fiedler AKA the one armed man.
& my team will beat his brains out.
I'm surprised nobody has mentioned (at least I didn't see it) that this stat is incredibly biased. Think about it. The type of teams that are forced into fourth quarter comebacks are the ones that are consistantly behind. In reality you wouldn't want your QB on that list because it means your team is behind all the time. Brett being average at the comeback just means he gets the job done when he needs too, but the team doesn't have to rely solely on the QB to pull them through. The more attempts a team has at the comeback the more successful they'll be at it. Kitna??? I mean come on!
Check the years KY, the stats for this only go back to 1996.Originally Posted by KYPack
The stats aren't biased. They aren't asking who is the greatest QB and we will measure the answer by fourth quarter comebacks alone.
The question is one angle, who has the most come from behind wins OVER the average QB in the league.
Having a good defense that keeps you in the lead would mean you have fewer games to consider, it wouldn't hamper an above the league norm performance. If you read the article at the site, Roethlisberger is 7-2, which is pretty good with a great defense but with a small number of opportunities to consider, statistically you can't say you can rely on this trend to continue.
Exactly, and I was just thinking how many of those 34 losses were just last year I am guessing 4-6 then his record looks a little better. I would admit I would take Brady over Brett at this point but Brady is going to start to find out what having no support is like.
Yes, if you were to make a comparison of near comebacks, the numbers for all QBs would be different. However, since Favre had Jacke and Longwell, plus Hentrich and Bidwell for most of his career, he might come out worse, especially as his FG kickers have been quite good in crunch time.
from the article:
A complicating factor in this study has to do with a “nearÃ¢à ‚¬Â comeback. For our purposes, a comeback was only counted as successful if it concluded with a victory (half-victories and half-losses were assigned to ties). What about a situation in which a quarterback brings his team from behind to take a lead only to see the other team march down and retake the lead with no time left? What about a quarterback putting his team in a position to win the game with a last minute field goal only to watch as the kicker shanks it? Including situations such as these would require a William Krasker-esque mathematical model which would assign appropriate win probabilities to different game circumstances. Such a model would be a wonderful achievement, but would be far too labor intensive in its creation to justify in this project.
Dude I don't give a crap aboout stats when it comes to this stuff. It's al about heart and that's what Favre has. I don't know how many people would take Plummer over Favre. Would you?
On coaches and defense: Favre has played for one of the ten worst coaches for holdng a late lead, but it wasn't Sherman. And several of the top comeback QBs in the list have played for coaches that are very good at holding a late lead (Brady-Belicheck, Bledsoe/Testaverde-Parcells, Dungy-Manning, Collins-Fassel, Bulger-Martz, Plummer-Shanahan, etc.) However, this doesn't explain everything as Plummer, for instance, had most of his comebacks during his days as a Cardinal playing for Tobin.
from the article...With a test in place for ranking performance, we can then implement another test, an analysis of variance, to help determine responsibility for comebacks and holding leads. An analysis of variance can break down the components of variation between and within groups and help determine which factors (if any) are important. In this study all possible two-way combinations of quarterbacks and coaches were examined. All quarterbacks who have been in a comeback or lead-holding situation under more than one head coach comprised one group. All coaches that have had multiple quarterbacks in comeback or lead-holding situations comprised the other group. Analyses of variance were run on each group, examining comeback ability and the ability to maintain leads, using modified t-test results as the dependent variables.
The general picture from these analyses of variance is that quarterbacks are more important than coaches in coming from behind to win, and coaches are more important than quarterbacks in holding leads. For example, the results indicate that Tom Brady should maintain a similar ability to bring his team from behind to win regardless of whether or not his coach is Bill Belichick. Furthermore, Bill Belichick should maintain a similar ability to hold on to a one-score, fourth-quarter lead whether or not his quarterback is Tom Brady.
These results make intuitive sense. A team that is trailing needs to be able to move the ball and score. Calling the right plays in this situation is certainly important, but execution by the quarterback and his surrounding cast is paramount. Meanwhile, a team that leads by a small margin will require a defensive stop, followed by utilization of a clock-killing offensive strategy usually predicated on the running game. This largely negates the quarterback’s role.
...
Turning our attention to head coaches, seven of the last 10 Super Bowls have been won by coaches who rank among the 10 best at holding a one-score, fourth-quarter lead (Table 3). Nine of the top 10 have either been to a Super Bowl or coached in multiple championship games, with the exception being Jim Haslett. Of course, Haslett spent his entire head coaching career with the Saints; he’s good, but he’s not a miracle worker. Interestingly, three of these coaches have been relegated to subordinate jobs: joining Haslett are Jim Fassel and media whipping boy Mike Martz. Readers of Pro Football Prospectus 2005 will not be surprised to see Martz ranked so highly, although Bob Ryan and Michael Wilbon may feel that his inclusion in the top five invalidates the entire study.
Table 3. Top 10 coaches at holding a lead since 1996
Rank Coach Wins Losses
1 Tony Dungy........51 14
2 Dennis Green......48 13
3 Bill Belichick........32 5
4 Bill Parcells.........40 13
5 Mike Martz..........27 5
6 Jim Fassel..........35 11
7 Mike Shanahan...47 18
8 Jim Haslett.........28 8
9 Bill Cowher.........44 17
10 Brian Billick.......27 8
The worst coaches at holding a one-score, fourth-quarter lead include Marty Schottenheimer and Mike Holmgren (Table 4). Both coaches are long-tenured and boast career records that are more than 50 games over .500. Holmgren has won a Super Bowl and coached in two others. Schottenheimerâ€℠¢s postseason record is horrific, but his teams generally perform very well in the regular season. (He’s the Flip Saunders of football!) Yet they both consistently field teams that get beaten in the fourth quarter more often than they should. George Seifert’s appearance in the bottom 10 might come as a surprise as well. This study includes his time with Carolina, and just one of his glory years with the 49ers.
Table 4. Bottom 10 coaches at holding a lead since 1996
Rank Coach Wins Losses
67 Dom Capers..............25 14
68 Ted Marchibroda........14 10
69 Mike Holmgren..........44 22
70 Jim Mora, Sr..............19 12
71 Butch Davis...............15 11
72 Marty Schottenheimer.33 18
73 Dave Campo...............7 11
74 George Seifert............11 12
75 Dennis Erickson..........15 13
76 Mike Riley...................9 13
At this stage of their respective careers? Yes I would. Over the course of their entire careers? Not at all.
Heart is impossible to know. You think you know it when you see it, but you are just reading comfortable narratives into what you see.
And posting the article isn't meant to disuade you from thinking Favre is great. I posted it because it was a much better attempt at documenting comebacks than usual commentator banter.
I didn't think that at all. I just think Favre is still one of the greatest of all time.
i think your totally missing the point. No one would dispute that Favre is one of the greatest quaterbacks in pro football history. The point being made is that on pure "combacks", he may have been praised a little too high. That is what the discussion is for. I peronally dont think there has ever been anybody better than Elway. Montana being a close second.
Bah Favre is right behind Elway. Favre is one of the most exciting 4th quarter QBs ever to play!
Swede: My expertise in this area is extensive. The essential difference between a "battleship" and an "aircraft carrier" is that an aircraft carrier requires five direct hits to sink, but it takes only four direct hits to sink a battleship.
HOFer
Found it interesting that Favre said on ESPN2 today that he would most like to play with Terrell Owens and Randy Moss "to see if we could get along and put up huge numbers." He also said he liked his guys though. It took him forever to answer the question because you could see he didn't want to slight anybody on the team. When asked who the best corners in the league were he said Champ Bailey, Al Harris, and Charles Woodson.
That can't be true because when asked about terell owens being on the packers Favre was really against it.
HOFer
I didn't see the interview, but it's easy to say you'd hypothetically like to play with someone when you don't actually have to do it. It's a little different than wanting them on your team in real life. I can see his point. It would be cool watching Brett and TO slicing up defenses, but would I really want TO to be a Packer? No.
"Greatness is not an act... but a habit.Greatness is not an act... but a habit." -Greg Jennings
Okay. I just needed to clarify.
I saw this as well and posted in another thread. He also said Manning is the best QB, he would've drafted Cutler over Young and Leiny and would trade places with Phil Mickelson if he didn't play football. I also saw his hesitation and thought he could've been more charismatic (not sure how good of a color commentatory he'd be w/ all the 'uhhs', 'ummms').Found it interesting that Favre said on ESPN2 today that he would most like to play with Terrell Owens and Randy Moss "to see if we could get along and put up huge numbers." He also said he liked his guys though. It took him forever to answer the question because you could see he didn't want to slight anybody on the team. When asked who the best corners in the league were he said Champ Bailey, Al Harris, and Charles Woodson.
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