The Offseason

[Deputy Nutz]

I liked the whole post, but this last part just leaped out at me. Fools? Look, Crosby altered his kicks from last year where he was missing just to the right to this year where he misses off the left upright. Seriously though - the guy has done just about everything right, and there have been pages and pages about how Stubby will use him far more from 45+ than other kickers in the league. Take tomorrow - Lovie Smith most likely will have a 40-45 yard maximum cap on Gould, who is considered a total money kicker - mostly because he's accurate and Lovie doesn't put him out there for a lot of long attempts. Crosby, even in the (likely) bitter cold, will probably be trotted out there for anything within a couple of yards of 50 (unless it's extremely low scoring and Stubby has to play field position). Unless Crosby goes on a post-season five month bender, misses all the OTAs, shows up chubbier than Sebastian Janikowski, and flops on his ass in August, I can't imagine him not being a shoo-in as PK. What am I missing?

He is average at best, and what good is it to send a kicker out for a 50+ field goal if the chances of making them are less than half? The bottom line is that Crosby hasn't had any competition in camp, so we simply don't know if there is a better kicker out there for the Packers. 78% was his average this year, which ranked him 30th in the NFL.

[mraynrand]

He is average at best, and what good is it to send a kicker out for a 50+ field goal if the chances of making them are less than half? The bottom line is that Crosby hasn't had any competition in camp, so we simply don't know if there is a better kicker out there for the Packers. 78% was his average this year, which ranked him 30th in the NFL.

IT depends on the circumstances. But he can hit them, and others can't. I guess it doesn't hurt to bring in a competitive camp leg, you need an extra one or two anyway. Maybe the contrast will shock you.

[Patler]

He is average at best, and what good is it to send a kicker out for a 50+ field goal if the chances of making them are less than half? The bottom line is that Crosby hasn't had any competition in camp, so we simply don't know if there is a better kicker out there for the Packers. 78% was his average this year, which ranked him 30th in the NFL.

David Akers has been named to the Pro-Bowl five times and a first team All-Pro four time. Let's compare:

Overall:
Akers - 294/359 81.9%
Crosby - 107/137 78.1%

0-19 yards
Akers - 5/5 100%
Crosby - 4/4 100%

20-29 yards
Akers - 95/96 99%
Crosby - 36/37 97.3%

30-39 yards
Akers - 96/109 88.1%
Crosby - 31/38 81.6%

40-49 yards
Akers - 83/117 70.9%
Crosby - 26/37 70.3%

50+
Akers - 15/32 46.9%
Crosby - 10/21 47.6%

Two things jump out at me, looking at those stats:

- The difference at 30-39 yards. That seems to be Crosby's only weakness. However, his sample size is somewhat small, thus magnifying the significance of each miss. If he "fixes" that he compares favorably to a perennial Pro-Bowl/All Pro kicker.

- 21 of Crosby's 137 attempts have been from 50 or more. That's 15% of his attempts. 32 of Akers' 359 attempts have been from 50 yards or more. That's 9%. For Crosby, 1 of every 7 is from 50+. For Akers, 1 of 11. Since that is clearly where success drops significantly, kicking that frequently from that distance hurts Crosby's overall success rate a lot.


Really, we should expect this. For most of Crosby's career the Packers have been very successful scoring TDs when they get inside the red zone. As a result, Crosby has fewer chances for the most makeable FGs. Couple that with MM's willingness to try 50-55 yarders whenever possible, and you will have a fieldgoal kicker that has almost no chance to match the success rate of kickers on teams that struggle to score TDs in the red zone.

[bobblehead]

What am I missing?

the clutch game winners....just like crosby. I agree with almost everything you said, but for a guy with a monster leg he has missed nearly every important 4th quarter kick he has had. Made the first one of his career, and has missed countless ones since. I like mason, but I don't want him to be without competition.

[mraynrand]

OK, just for fun, here's Mason Crosby's 2010 (regular season) misses: (he was 22 of 28)

First miss: at Chicago, Mason was 1 of 2 - the 'miss' was blocked (Loss)

Two misses at Washington Mason's makes were from 52 and 36; misses were 1) from 48 wide right and 2) off the left upright from 53 yards (on grass) at the end of regulation; Packer lose 16-13 in OT


Missed one of four in 9-0 win at Jets

Missed one of 2 in 45-7 shellacking of Dallas

Missed chip shot in first of three attempts in win over SF

I guess you could say Crosby cost the Packers the Redskins game, or at least could have won it for them


His kicks in the other games didn't decide any outcomes

One recovered onside kicks (at NE) didn't alter outcome.

21.8 average return pretty close to average. Touch backs at all time low of 4 after averaging 14 (Scheme?)

Miskick set up huge return at NE - but would you blame the longest return for a lineman on Crosby's kick?

OK, I'm officially bored now. You probably are too. That wasn't really fun at all.

[Freak Out]

Vince Young should go back to school.

[RashanGary]

Welcome to the board.

There is so much that could happen, I've given up guessing what will happen next year. Hopefully we win the SB now and the talk is about how to turn it into a dynasty.

[red]

we just need to get healthy and stay healthy

that and a new special team coach and we are super bowl favorites for sure next year

one great thing we have going is we are an extremely young team, and those youngsters have already got a real nice taste of winning, and the two impressive playoff victories on the road give these guys the kind of experience you just can't buy

TT needs to just keep drafting like he's been drafting, and MM needs to keep making good players out of those picks, and dom needs to stick around. if those things happen we might be looking at a patriots type of run for this team in the years to come

but first things first, we need to kick the shit our of the fucking bears on sunday

[TennesseePackerBacker]

I'll return to this thread after the Superbowl.

Welcome!

[Freak Out]

I just down voted this cursed thread.

[red]

this is at nutz post

i think if the coaches though lang is the future at LG then he would have been inserted there already. colledge is clearly the weak spot on the o-line. so i could see baluga moving to LT and lang as RT. i also wouldn't mind them going after a guy like carmini if he's ther

i've been looking at a lot of mocks and almost all of them say we need help on the d-line. which i don't agree with at all. we're stacked there and don't forget we get Jolly back next year. this might be one of our strongest positions

other mocks say we need a RB. again i think we'll be fine there. grant will be back, him and starks will be a nice 1-2 punch. plus nance has a lot of potential and might be able to turn into something nice

i also agree that barnett might make a nice OLB, he's a real good blitzed and is decent in coverage. i think hawks deal gets reworked and him and bishop will man the middle

i'd like to see us add another QB in the draft maybe so we can trade flynn is the price is right. unless MM thinks graham harrell can be a good backup

i just don't see a lot of weaknesses on our team heading into next year

[Joemailman]

I think the most likely scenario is that TT drafts another OT in the 1st round. That gives him the option of moving Bulaga to LG if they don't sign Colledge. I thought Bulaga was beating out Colledge before he got hurt in the preseason. I don't see DL as much of a need unless neither Jenkins or Jolly are coming back. CB is a position could use some upgrading. As good as they've been this year, they're one injury away from having Jarrett Bush as the nickel back.

[MJZiggy]

Welcome to the forum Grace. I think first they're going to need to look at the multitudes on IR and walking wounded and assess their condition. People like to assume that when you get a guy back, he's pretty much like he was before injury. That's not always the case. It will give them a better indication of who will stick around and who might be expendable (much as I hate thinking of any of our guys as expendable). Then comes the tough part of comparing the play of the replacements to the guys they replaced. This is one of those really good problems to have, deciding which of the two really good players is the better option. I don't know who's left that is doing so horridly that they stand out as guys who could really improve the team by not being on it. I'm really impressed with the team at this point except maybe Colledge who drives me nuts sometimes.

[Brando19]

Welcome to this disfunctional family we call packerrats...lol. Great first post. I too would LOVE to see DeAngelo Williams in Green and Gold. But if the Packers draft Ingram...that would be awesome. I'm just not that big a fan of Grant. DeAngelo Williams/Starks/Jackson= SUCCESS!

[mission]

Would have told [someone] that I have no interest in reading anything about the offseason right now, but since you're new I'll just say welcome and invite you to post here freely and without inhibition.

[vince]

Newhouse's back problems at this early stage of his career are troublesome. I still think Lang is part of the answer, probably at RT. Maybe McDonald and/or EDS can fill in at LG, but they need depth from there even if that's the case.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

I want to be celebrating a Superbowl win all offseason! Seriously though? An offseason thread? We spend all offseason discussing the team for the hopes of having a chance to play in the Superbowl.....thats all I can think about right now is beating the Bears this weekend. I hate that team so much.......This game means so much.......who cares about next season right now, there night not even be a season. Hoping for a great game Sunday, God willing!

[Lurker64]

I want to be celebrating a Superbowl win all offseason! Seriously though? An offseason thread? We spend all offseason discussing the team for the hopes of having a chance to play in the Superbowl.....thats all I can think about right now is beating the Bears this weekend. I hate that team so much.......This game means so much.......who cares about next season right now, there night not even be a season. Hoping for a great game Sunday, God willing!

Just because you're still in it, doesn't mean you can't be thinking about the draft. I've been thinking about the draft since June.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Just because you're still in it, doesn't mean you can't be thinking about the draft. I've been thinking about the draft since June.

I find that odd.

[Lurker64]

I find that odd.

The NFL draft used to be two of my favorite days of the year. Now? It's three of my favorite days of the year. Potentially, I have a problem.