Another boring money post

[Partial]

What was/is hilarious to me is that you don't understand diversification, or if you understand it, you don't preach or practice it. Investing $60K into AAPL (or ANY single stock) is ABSOLUTELY FOOLISH, unless $60k is not a material amount of money to you. I suspect that is the case with Skinbasket (It is material) and I am CERTAIN it is material to you.

IDK, depends on a lot of things. My entire 401k money is in a wide variety of mutual funds. While I made 25% on it two years ago, it made next to nothing last year, while my AAPL blew up. I *DO* believe in diversification, which is why we're about to buy another 20K of GE. You assume many things of which you don't know.

"Playing around" with insignificant amounts of cash in single stocks in the stock market is one thing, something I have ZERO problems with, however, high stakes gambling (single stock investing) with material amounts of money injects so much risk into the equation it is FOOLHARDY, even when you make money.

I don't agree with this. It's risky, yes, but it's a calculated risk. It's not playing blackjack. There is sound math and historical evidence behind it.

You have the AAPL rose colored glasses on, so you aren't teachable any longer, but you're going to get your ass kicked in life very hard and I'm going to shake my head, roll my eyes, feel sorry for your spouse and family, and then laugh my fool ass off until I cry. Recession proof? You are fucking NUTS. NOTHING is recession proof. NOTHING. Didn't you learn a GD thing from Enron? Worldcom? Tyco? You are an abject fool if you truly believe AAPL is "recession proof", much less "risk proof".

Those are cases of corruption, not recession. Do you think companies are suddenly going to stop giving their employees smart phones? Do you think consumers are going to stop buying smart phones? Apple is about as recession proof as it gets, imo. There margins are 40-50%. If they need to temporarily cut the cost of goods to sell them, they'll be able to do so and still be quite profitable.

Obviously there are inherit risks with investing. I'm really big into applying math principals into them. Lots of people look at PE, but I like the much less commonly used PEG because it accounts for growth. PEG ratio is a phenomenal indication for purchasing stocks. Something like 94% of stocks perform according to what the ratio dictates I've read. That's a pretty strong indication, in my opinion.

FWIW, AAPL has the biggest market capitalization of any company in the world. There's nothing tinkertoy about it.

Patler, I completely agree with you that obviously there are stocks that are going to do better and worse. I know you obviously like AAPL, who wouldn't when they own it , my point is saying that while there may be some better stocks out there, AAPL is pretty outrageously good. Lots of financial analysts that are quoted on appleinsider.com are saying that 600 is the new 12 month price, and that it's only going to keep going up. I've read some say that is it the best stock to buy right now. We both know it's ridiculously under valued. Eventually the market has a way of correcting itself and putting it's PE in line with other very large companies (which will make it very, very valuable). IMO, it's very safe, and it's something that I know very well and follow closely. Part of the reason I'm such a strong advocate for it is because I follow Apple as closely as anyone. It would be foolish for me to invest in some other companies that I don't follow and aren't particularly interested in supporting, because I won't know when the time is right to buy in or get out.

RG hit the nail on the head when he said a few years back to only invest in something you fully understand. For me, that's AAPL and that's why I'm such a strong advocate of it.

[Patler]

Do you think companies are suddenly going to stop giving their employees smart phones?

OF COURSE THEY WILL! My gosh, do you have any idea what goes on at a company struggling to keep its share price up? First, they will simply limit the employees that can get new smartphones. Then they will limit the ones who can even have them. Then they will go through large scale layoffs. Each step limits sales opportunities for all smartphone providers.

Do you think consumers are going to stop buying smart phones?

OF COURSE THEY WILL, if a recession hits and lasts. There is nothing essential about having a smartphone. If the choice is between food, rent and a smartphone, the phone is the first thing to go. Not only will they not buy new ones, they won't even pay for the data plans to support their old ones.

Obviously there are inherit risks with investing. I'm really big into applying math principals into them. Lots of people look at PE, but I like the much less commonly used PEG because it accounts for growth. PEG ratio is a phenomenal indication for purchasing stocks. Something like 94% of stocks perform according to what the ratio dictates I've read. That's a pretty strong indication, in my opinion.

I hope you realize the PEG ratio is based on predicted growth. In that way, it is one of the most unreliable tools, because if the prediction for growth is wrong, the whole thing falls apart. There is nothing certain about predicting the future.

Lots of financial analysts that are quoted on appleinsider.com are saying that 600 is the new 12 month price, and that it's only going to keep going up. I've read some say that is it the best stock to buy right now. We both know it's ridiculously under valued. Eventually the market has a way of correcting itself and putting it's PE in line with other very large companies (which will make it very, very valuable).

There is nothing new about the $600 prediction. Earlier this year, some were predicting it for the end of 2011.

IMO, it's very safe, and it's something that I know very well and follow closely. Part of the reason I'm such a strong advocate for it is because I follow Apple as closely as anyone. It would be foolish for me to invest in some other companies that I don't follow and aren't particularly interested in supporting, because I won't know when the time is right to buy in or get out.

I agree that you should know what you invest in, but it is unwise to ever think anything is certain. You should also look at how often the so-called experts are flat out wrong.

[mraynrand]

There is nothing certain about predicting the future.

True that

[Scott Campbell]

I don't agree with this. It's risky, yes, but it's a calculated risk. It's not playing blackjack. There is sound math and historical evidence behind it.

I guess you haven't heard about the MIT Blackjack team.