Clouds on the horizon for AAPL????

[Patler]

From a JP Morgan report:

Several supply-chain vendors indicated in the past two weeks that Apple lowered fourth-quarter iPad orders 25 percent, the first such cut that analysts at JPMorgan’s electronic manufacturing services team in Hong Kong said they have ever seen

A number of advisors have put AAPL on watch lists. Might be time for me to lock in my gains.

[Freak Out]

Clouds on the horizon for more than Apple....but seriously...how many tablets and phones can consumers afford?

[MJZiggy]

Clouds on the horizon for more than Apple....but seriously...how many tablets and phones can consumers afford?

Not many in this economy.

[SkinBasket]

Amazon's tablet is the supposed reason behind the cut. $250 for a not annoying tablet. Maybe it'll even have a USB!!

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/...-analysts-say/

[Patler]

Several sources are also suggesting that the continuing economic troubles in Europe have caused Apple to adjust forecasts for IPad sales in Europe significantly. A 25% cutback in orders to suppliers is huge. The only way that this is not bad news for AAPL stock is if the cutback is because they are switching to their own new product offering, but so far this does not seem to be the case.

[Partial]

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011...o-its-defense/

Not according to the Wall Street Journal. I'm not worried. Apple stock has already rebounded, which means that this news is pretty much bunk. Amazon tablet is a non-factor right now. We'll have to see, they're trying to undercut the iPhone 5 announcement, but they aren't releasing until early next year I've read. That means iPad 2 is the only game in town for the holiday season and they will sell a lot of iPads.

The big rumor is not that they cut 25% of production, but that they shifted it to Foxconn Brazil over human rights concerns. I think that's far more likely than Apple's demand slowing down... they still can barely keep up with iPad demand.

I cannot reiterate that to consumers the amazon tablet is a non-factor right now. Those people who are interested in reading a lot already have the 70 dollar kindle.

Having said that, it will be a stronger competitor long term than HTC, Sammy, etc on the tablet front because they offer a set of services similar to Apple (music store, video store, app store, etc). Proprietary or not, people want a refined, tight user experience. You can't get this with Google. Amazon, like Apple will be able to offer this.

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...ectations.html

edit: Just read Skin's link. 3 million tablets is it for 2012? Apple is going to sell 100+ million. #NotWorried

edit 2: Same article.

“We think the next potential threat to Apple’s tablet dominance is not until late 2012 when Windows 8-based tablets could hit the market,” a second JPMorgan analyst predicted just last week.

#NotWorried

[retailguy]

Clouds on the horizon for more than Apple....but seriously...how many tablets and phones can consumers afford?

What goes up, must come down. I'm loving my two new android tablets, even though I've been told they're cheap junk. Seem to do everything I need, and want just fine.

Did you see that android smartphones hit more than 50% of the market in August?

[Scott Campbell]

Get the Daily Feed Newsletter Free



Apple Denied Multi-Touch Trademark by Patent Office


By Mike Schuster September 27, 2011 10:48 AM





TOUCHY SUBJECT

Oh, Apple. In your pursuit to trademark every word or phrase related to your company, why do you insist on going after common terms?

Pod. App Store. Lower case I. We can understand wanting to trademark the phrase, "There's an app for that," given the popular ad campaign, but come on. Apples in logos?!

But when it comes to record labels founded by the Beatles, of course there's some wiggle room.

Unfortunately for Apple, this trademark attempt was another miss. According to MacRumors, the Trademark Trial and Appeal Board at the US Patent and Trademark Office has denied Apple's application to trademark the word "multi-touch."

The original filing was made on January 9, 2007 -- the same day Steve Jobs unveiled the first-generation iPhone to a rabid audience. The trademark application was initially shot down by a USPTO lawyer, but Cupertino filed an appeal. Well, the persnickety bunch at the USPTO upheld its original decision and affirmed that "multi-touch" is far too common of a phrase.

In its decision, the board wrote, "Again, simply because the applied-for term has been used in association with a highly successful product does not mean the term has acquired distinctiveness. Decision: The examining attorney's finding that the Section 2(f) showing is insufficient is affirmed."

Buck up, Apple. You'll get 'em next time.

Say, has anyone tried to trademark "phone?"

[SkinBasket]

I cannot reiterate that to consumers the amazon tablet is a non-factor right now. Those people who are interested in reading a lot already have the 70 dollar kindle.

And when Amazon convinces them that this is essentially the new kindle, but with all the features of an i-pad, you have an instant upgrade market combined with another market of people who didn't want an ipad because it was either too expense or because too it's gay. Amazon is it's own best advertiser and will plaster the tablet all over the front page, in banners, and recommendations. Oh, and it'll probably have a USB port, making it entirely more accessible to a lot more people for a larger variety of applications.

Apple's going to have to adjust their cost structure or they're going to have to share more of the market.

[retailguy]

And when Amazon convinces them that this is essentially the new kindle, but with all the features of an i-pad, you have an instant upgrade market combined with another market of people who didn't want an ipad because it was either too expense or because too it's gay. Amazon is it's own best advertiser and will plaster the tablet all over the front page, in banners, and recommendations. Oh, and it'll probably have a USB port, making it entirely more accessible to a lot more people for a larger variety of applications.

My "cheap junk" android tablet has a usb port. I moved a bunch of files (video, mp3, and ebooks) to the tablet last night using it. I didn't need any special harware or connector cables. My camera synched up right away too. It's probably because I own nothing but cheap junk and therefore it is all industry standard, it knows how to talk to each other, and doesn't require any special cabling either.

Apple's going to have to adjust their cost structure or they're going to have to share more of the market.

What about the "tight user experience"? I've been told that most people (except for cheap assholes like me) are willing to pay for that.

That amazon tablet sounds interesting. I'm going to consider that at some point to replace the girls IPAD 1's.

[Partial]

And when Amazon convinces them that this is essentially the new kindle, but with all the features of an i-pad, you have an instant upgrade market combined with another market of people who didn't want an ipad because it was either too expense or because too it's gay. Amazon is it's own best advertiser and will plaster the tablet all over the front page, in banners, and recommendations. Oh, and it'll probably have a USB port, making it entirely more accessible to a lot more people for a larger variety of applications.

Apple's going to have to adjust their cost structure or they're going to have to share more of the market.

Long term yes. We'll see. I'm 110% with you that Amazon is a threat that the other companies are not. Competition is going to get fierce with Windows 8 too. We'll see what happens. Amazon is going to need to sell a lot of content to make this a profitable endeavor though. They're either going to be breaking even or losing money on every tablet. That's okay, that's common in video game hardware and consoles are cash cows.

[Deputy Nutz]

Dorks

[mraynrand]

Ten years from now these companies will be handing out the tablets for free, and all we'll be paying for is the content via the cloud. (Thus, the irony of the thread title - the cloud is on everyone's horizon).

edit: We'll be paying for content and Harlan will get it free as a 'basic human right.'

[mraynrand]

Dorks

Meanie

[Partial]

http://www.bgr.com/2011/09/27/sa-app...-market-in-q2/

Strategy Analytics: Apple iPad Captured 80 Percent of North America Tablet Market in Q2 2011

Boston, MA – September 27, 2011 – According to the latest research from Strategy Analytics, the Apple iPad captured 80 percent share of tablet shipments in North America during the second quarter of 2011. Apple has a tight grip on the American tablet market that Amazon and others will find hard, but not impossible, to break.

Alex Spektor, Senior Analyst at Strategy Analytics, said, “Apple completely dominates the North American tablet market, capturing 80 percent share of 7.5 million shipments during Q2 2011. Apple remains a long way ahead of its main rivals such as Motorola, Samsung, RIM, Asus and HTC. A combination of cool branding, user-friendly hardware, entertaining services and savvy retail distribution has made Apple a formidable market leader.”

Neil Mawston, Director at Strategy Analytics, added, “Provided the pricing, screen size and hardware design are right, Amazon can be one of the main challengers to Apple’s dominance. Like Apple, Amazon has a strong brand, compelling content, sophisticated billing systems and widespread distribution. In effect, Amazon’s new tablet product represents a good opportunity to place an Amazon shopping cart in the hands of American consumers, offering optimized access to purchasing digital content or physical goods from the Amazon online store.”

The full report, Global Tablet Vendor Market Share by Region: Q2 2011, is published by the Strategy Analytics Tablet & Touchscreen (TTS) service, details of which can be found here: http://tinyurl.com/3zs57yr.

I personally think 7.5M total tablets shipped is very low. We'll see on October 18th when Apple does earnings. I think they'll have doubled that number themselves. Apple sold ~10M last quarter, and that was every single iPad they could build since suppliers were having production issues. Those issues being cleared up + back to school sales = 15M is my guess.

[Partial]

Looks like Apple is only going to sell 14M instead of 15M. Surely not 25% cut, but a sizable cut indeed. As Goldman Sachs points out, it likely has nothing to do with demand, more to do with building up for the forthcoming holiday rush.

http://www.bgr.com/2011/09/27/apple-...dly-confirmed/

Claims that surfaced on Monday suggesting Apple had cut iPad 2 orders for the fourth quarter have reportedly been confirmed. JP Morgan analysts Mark Moskowitz and Gokul Hariharan wrote in a note to investors on Monday that Apple had reduced its fourth-quarter iPad 2 orders from 17 million to 13 million units, suggesting that demand for Apple’s market-leading iPad might finally be waning. Some speculated that a portion of iPad production may have moved to Foxconn’s new factory in Brazil while others suggested that the report was not accurate, and JP Morgan’s Moskowitz would later issue a second note backtracking on the firm’s earlier statements. But should he have been so quick to fold? Read on for more.

Goldman Sachs analysts Liang-chun Lin and Bill Shope each claim to have independently confirmed the fourth-quarter production cuts for Apple’s slate. Channel checks performed separately by each of the analysts indicate that iPad shipments in the fourth quarter are now expected to fall between 13 million and 14 million units, below the firm’s earlier estimate of 15.4 million. ”Overall, the data points suggest some slack iPad supply, at both the production and component level,” Lin wrote.

The production cuts suggest a possible decrease in end user demand, however Goldman’s Shope believes that is an unlikely scenario. Instead, the analyst thinks Apple likely increased orders dramatically ahead of the holiday season and is now dropping production down to normal levels. Shope also suggested that Apple may instead be controlling iPad 2 manufacturing very closely in preparation for an iPad 3 launch in early 2012. The firm still sees Apple shipping between 28 million and 30 million iPads in the second half of 2011.

“We believe a demand-centric bear case on Apple’s stock will quickly disintegrate in the face of multiple October product catalysts (next gen iPhone, iOS5, and iCloud), remarkably strong September quarter results, and what we expect to be solid iPad, Mac and iPhone momentum in the December quarter,” Shope wrote in his note. Goldman Sachs reiterated its $520 price target on Apple stock with a Conviction Buy rating.

On the plus side, a 520 target price and a 'conviction buy' rating from a global thought leader is about as good as it gets. Time to buy.

Earnings are going to be very interesting October 18th. I have to wonder how many iPhones they'll actually have sold after tempering the enthusiasm after the previous earnings citing a "product transition". They set the expectations much lower for this quarter after having a hall-of-fame type quarter preceding. The 16 month old iPhone is still the best selling phone. That's a little bit crazy as it's well under-powered by todays standard. Having said that, it's still a faster/better user experience then the competition so I'm not too surprised. I have to imagine the margins are ridiculously high right now as the components are all pretty outdated now. That would be sweet if Apple is making 500-550 per phone that they sell to carriers for 650.

[Deputy Nutz]

NERDS!!!

[MJZiggy]

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011...o-its-defense/

Not according to the Wall Street Journal. I'm not worried. Apple stock has already rebounded, which means that this news is pretty much bunk. Amazon tablet is a non-factor right now. We'll have to see, they're trying to undercut the iPhone 5 announcement, but they aren't releasing until early next year I've read. That means iPad 2 is the only game in town for the holiday season and they will sell a lot of iPads.

The big rumor is not that they cut 25% of production, but that they shifted it to Foxconn Brazil over human rights concerns. I think that's far more likely than Apple's demand slowing down... they still can barely keep up with iPad demand.

I cannot reiterate that to consumers the amazon tablet is a non-factor right now. Those people who are interested in reading a lot already have the 70 dollar kindle.

Having said that, it will be a stronger competitor long term than HTC, Sammy, etc on the tablet front because they offer a set of services similar to Apple (music store, video store, app store, etc). Proprietary or not, people want a refined, tight user experience. You can't get this with Google. Amazon, like Apple will be able to offer this.

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...ectations.html

edit: Just read Skin's link. 3 million tablets is it for 2012? Apple is going to sell 100+ million. #NotWorried

edit 2: Same article. #NotWorried

Interesting. PC World seems to think that the Amazon Kindle Fire, which comes out Wednesday, is a little bit more than a new reader. Combined with the iPad reduction, someone should be #Worried.

http://www.pcworld.com/article/24065..._steroids.html

[Partial]

Interesting. PC World seems to think that the Amazon Kindle Fire, which comes out Wednesday, is a little bit more than a new reader. Combined with the iPad reduction, someone should be #Worried.

http://www.pcworld.com/article/24065..._steroids.html

It gets announced Wednesday. It doesn't come out Wednesday.

iPads are not really getting reduced according to Goldman Sachs. They're exceeding everyone's wildest expectations. The Goldman Sachs article said, and I quote, "The production cuts suggest a possible decrease in end user demand, however Goldman’s Shope believes that is an unlikely scenario". No sense in debating this. We might as well just wait until October 18th and hear all about the iPad sales. My guess is they'll shatter expectations.

I agree that Amazon is the chief competitor right now and Apple should be a little worried. I love Amazon, so I'm glad they're entering the fray because it'll push technology forward. Having said that, if competitors are having a very hard time meeting Apple's 500 dollar price point and remaining profitable, it's quite likely that Amazon is either A) losing 250$ per tablet or B) making more of a Nook (as mentioned in your article) then a full-blown tablet. If it's the prior, that's a risky move to make as the Android ecosystem doesn't support buying content. Android app developers don't make very much money at all compared to iOs counterparts. If it's the latter, I think it'll mollywomp the Nook and dominate the hybrid poor mans tablet/reader space.

Finally, as I've said several times, Apple doesn't need to be a market leader in this space to continue being extremely profitable and seeing growth. Even if their market share drops to 40%, with the way the space itself is blowing up, Apple will come along for the ride.

There are not clouds for AAPL in the near future beyond iCloud and the benefits that will provide to users and shareholders alike.

FWIW, JP Morgan redacted their statement. The companies stance does not agree with that particular analysts.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...witz-says.html

NERDS!!!

Pretty much spot on.

[Partial]

Seeking Alpha, a stock trading website, just published an article about how mathematically Apple is the most undervalued stock in the world right now. They also make a notion to a 10% jump coming very soon. W00t w00t!

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2958...wrenching-drop

Apple remains the single most undervalued stock out there.

Here's another excerpt from
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2954...ive-valuations

Apple Inc. (AAPL) – AAPL's stock price has been in an upward trend since 2009. Now, the stock is being traded around $382. Also, the stock has traded in a 52-week range between $265.52 and $404.50.

Apple's return on invested capital (ROIC) is more than 200% versus its WACC of around 8%. This means that Apple is a great allocator of capital. The profit margin of the company is 23.53%. AAPL stock has price-to-earnings ratio of 15.12 and a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.84. Again, price-earnings-to-growth ratio is 0.64, demonstrating a lower value than it should be. Shares could maintain a PEG closer to 1.

Further analysis of price-to-earnings ratio and price-earnings-to-growth ratio is possible to demonstrate the stock is even cheaper than meets the eye. Subtracting cash and marketable securities per share from its price, the stock is more attractive at an adjusted price-to-earnings ratio and price-earnings-to-growth ratio around 9.0 and 0.41, respectively.

However, it’s clear that AAPL stock is cheaper than Google (GOOG) stock. Also, price-to-sales ratio is lower and stronger than Google's stock at 3.51. Its earnings-per-share is $25.28 currently compared with Google's at $27.72. I strongly recommend AAPL stock as a buy and hold, especially for long-term investors such as retirees.

This article lists 20 stocks that are fantastic "value" investments mathematically. Not surprisingly, Apple is in the middle of the road of the top 20.

Bretsky and Patler alert! Bretsky and Patler alert! Bretsky and Patler alert! Bretsky and Patler alert!

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2957...-off-right-now

Here is Yahoo!'s financial analyst breakdown on the stock value. As you can see, every Analyst they have says it's either a great time to Buy, Strong Buy, or Hold.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=AAPL+Analyst+Opinion

On the MSN Finance page for AAPl, they rate it as a 10/10 Strong Buy right now.

I'd say the future looks good by all accounts from the professionals.


Update: Read this note from JP Morgan about expecting the next iPhone Big Bang. China and pre-paid penetration are the focus.
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/09/...organ/?iid=EAL