Another boring money post

[Upnorth]

You don't keep text msgs? Pics? Contacts? Emails? Why do you have a smart phone, then?

Jeez, why the snide remark when I'm trying to save you from having your personal info ripped?? It's really rude. I'll refrain from trying to help you in the future. Hopefully, getting your life hijacked will teach you to be a little nicer and more respectful to those who are trying to help you.

If security is that important you must use a blackberry then. Good choice.

[retailguy]

If security is that important you must use a blackberry then. Good choice.

Actually, he uses a 1st generation Palm Pre. I use a blackberry and he ridicules me about it all the time. I know, it makes no sense, but you catch on quick.

[3irty1]

Security on a phone is a serious issue and one that I think people overlook. Its all too easy to crack bluetooth and get a phonebook and pictures--everything a bastard kid needs to potentially blackmail you.

[Partial]

Extremely underwhelmed by the decision to keep the same enclosure for the iPhone 4S. Bad move. Aluminum is much better.

The new camera looks amazing. By far the best camera ever in a smart phone. Should rival point and shoots from a few years ago with it's advanced backlit sensor. It really is about time someone has leveraged gyroscopes/accelerometers to do stabilization.

The software looks incredible. iOs 5 looks awesome. The siri stuff is really quite scary to me. It's ridiculously cool technology much like IBM's Watson with it's natural language processing. Having said that, it's a little frightening and terminator like.

It's the best smart phone still, certainly the fastest, but c'mon, really, still a 3.5" screen? You could easily fit a 4" screen on that enclosure with the size of the bezel. That would have been a HUGE improvement. As I've said before, I do not care for the glass back on the iPhone 4. Why would they keep that when it's susceptible to cracks? Aluminum!!!!

[Upnorth]

Extremely underwhelmed by the decision to keep the same enclosure for the iPhone 4S. Bad move. Aluminum is much better.

The new camera looks amazing. By far the best camera ever in a smart phone. Should rival point and shoots from a few years ago with it's advanced backlit sensor. It really is about time someone has leveraged gyroscopes/accelerometers to do stabilization.

The software looks incredible. iOs 5 looks awesome. The siri stuff is really quite scary to me. It's ridiculously cool technology much like IBM's Watson with it's natural language processing. Having said that, it's a little frightening and terminator like.

It's the best smart phone still, certainly the fastest, but c'mon, really, still a 3.5" screen? You could easily fit a 4" screen on that enclosure with the size of the bezel. That would have been a HUGE improvement. As I've said before, I do not care for the glass back on the iPhone 4. Why would they keep that when it's susceptible to cracks? Aluminum!!!!

Does the security have cracks like the case???

[Partial]

Does the security have cracks like the case???

No, that's Android. iOs and it's sandboxed nature is inherently more secure.

[Partial]

Just called Sprint. My SERO premium (40$) account will work evidently with a subsidized iPhone!

Unlimited everything for 40$ and a 199$ 16GB iPhone 4S.

*Happy Dance!*
*Happy Dance!*
*Happy Dance!*
*Happy Dance!*
*Happy Dance!*
*Happy Dance!*

[easy cheesy]

We'll say that I'm careful with my data. Phones can be stolen. If someone wants a pic of my cat that badly, let 'em have at it, but you won't find pics of my kid. After a rash of car thefts several years ago where the car thieves used the navigation to go rob the people's houses, trying to get to my home will take you to my kid's old elementary school. We don't have a texting plan because we, you know, call each other and I don't use people's full names in my contact list. You'd have to know who they are for the list to do you any good. Good luck hijacking my life from my phone. I have a smart phone for navigation & maps and finding coffee shops and for scanning random bar codes, identifying songs, reading and entertaining myself when I have a few minutes and no knitting with me. Oh and for music when I need it. And by the way, if you read this post, you'll realize that my post was completely serious. Unlike all your replies when I've tried to help you out in your life.

DAYUM!... You're good!... ... I'm "wired" just like you (a bit literally and a little bit more so figuratively) and exercise the same due dilligence in doing what I can to prevent "issues" with regards to the potential dispersion of personal info... like not including the last names of my contacts etc...

[Partial]

This Forbes article is interesting.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenw...of-the-iphone/

Having said that, I think the choice is clear. Apple is a hardware company. Period. They'll never stop making innovative, high end high margin devices for consumers as long as Steve is with us.

[Partial]

Steve Jobs has passed away. Rest in peace, Steve.

[woodbuck27]

Security on a phone is a serious issue and one that I think people overlook. Its all too easy to crack bluetooth and get a phonebook and pictures--everything a bastard kid needs to potentially blackmail you.

What's 'a Packer Fan' need to hide?

[Patler]

AAPL. Just saw a 12 month estimate at 610 USD. It's at 385 right now.

You may have just gotten lucky, Pat, I have no idea. Historical annual yields are what, less than 10%. 100% in 2 years when I should be earning 18-20% if spectacular. Sure, some stocks may do better, others may do worse. If I make a 300% profit in 4 years, which mathematically will likely happen, that's downright unbelievable. Regardless of your stocks may have done, it's foolish to say that AAPL has been anything less than a dream stock.

AAPL is recession proof right now. It's unbelievably safe. The PEG ratio is fantastic. People are not going to stop buying iPhones and iPads anytime soon. Apple has this market by the balls and the strangle hold will only continue to get stronger while the total size of the market increases. 150M iPhones in one year at 400 profit per phone?? RIDICULOUS!!

It's not foolish to love a stock that is recession proof, has gone up >100% in two years, and is likely to hit 1000 within a few years, giving me a >500% return. Yes, I know, when the market would have made me ~50% in 5 years, I've been busy making 500%. 10x market pace IS priceless!

I don't agree with this. It's risky, yes, but it's a calculated risk. It's not playing blackjack. There is sound math and historical evidence behind it.

Apple is about as recession proof as it gets, imo. There margins are 40-50%. If they need to temporarily cut the cost of goods to sell them, they'll be able to do so and still be quite profitable.

Obviously there are inherit risks with investing. I'm really big into applying math principals into them. Lots of people look at PE, but I like the much less commonly used PEG because it accounts for growth. PEG ratio is a phenomenal indication for purchasing stocks. Something like 94% of stocks perform according to what the ratio dictates I've read. That's a pretty strong indication, in my opinion.

FWIW, AAPL has the biggest market capitalization of any company in the world. There's nothing tinkertoy about it.

Patler, I completely agree with you that obviously there are stocks that are going to do better and worse. I know you obviously like AAPL, who wouldn't when they own it , my point is saying that while there may be some better stocks out there, AAPL is pretty outrageously good. Lots of financial analysts that are quoted on appleinsider.com are saying that 600 is the new 12 month price, and that it's only going to keep going up. I've read some say that is it the best stock to buy right now. We both know it's ridiculously under valued. Eventually the market has a way of correcting itself and putting it's PE in line with other very large companies (which will make it very, very valuable). IMO, it's very safe, and it's something that I know very well and follow closely. Part of the reason I'm such a strong advocate for it is because I follow Apple as closely as anyone. It would be foolish for me to invest in some other companies that I don't follow and aren't particularly interested in supporting, because I won't know when the time is right to buy in or get out.

RG hit the nail on the head when he said a few years back to only invest in something you fully understand. For me, that's AAPL and that's why I'm such a strong advocate of it.

Analysts could be wrong, but their livelihood depends on them being right.

"RBC Capital Markets sees Apple earning $110 billion in revenue in fiscal 2011, growing to $140 billion in revenue the following year, and $167 billion by fiscal 2013. It has a $500 price target for AAPL stock."

167 billion at 25-30% operating margin is just incredible. The race to $1000 continues!

Partial;

Big day for AAPL tomrrow, could be awful for their share price.

Estimates for AAPL were $7.296 quarterly earnings per share, and they reported $7.05 today after the close. Their first "miss" in about 5 years.

Could trigger a massive sell-off of AAPL as those with "paper profits" earned over the last 2 years seek to lock them in. A drop of $40-$50/share (about 10%) will probably happen. Maybe even a lot more than that.

It appears the analysts were, in fact, wrong, at least in their quarterly estimates.

They key factor now is if this causes FY2012 revisions downward; or if the delay in releasing the new iphone is simply pushing sales back.

AAPL share price could take a double hit as investors ruminate over not only the first quarterly "miss" in forever, but also what the death of Steve Jobs will mean to the company.

[Patler]

The analysts "could be wrong"? Do you realize that good analysts and investing systems ARE wrong about 45% of the time? They make their money on the 10% differential, being right 55% of the time and wrong 45% of the time. That, and limiting the losses when they are wrong.

There is a saying among analysts that, in the long term, the market is never wrong. What they mean is that the market determines the share price, regardless of what analysts think the price should be. So the market is never wrong, but analysts often are wrong.

So far, over the last two years or so, AAPL has climbed steadily, and that is a good thing. Momentum is a good thing. But, AAPL has missed the analysts share price targets continually. In spite of significant "beats" on earning estimates, the stock has moved upward more slowly than analysts have predicted, and that is a bad thing, because analysts' share price estimates are based on their earnings estimates. While AAPL has exceeding the analysts earnings estimates significantly, the share price has not hit the analysts targets.

In other words, the market has been less impressed with AAPL's performance than the analysts have been. That makes AAPL a stock that should be watched closely. If they ever barely beat the consensus earnings estimates, or miss it, the stock could top out. In short, the market may determine the "correct" P/E for AAPL to be far different than analysts think it should be.

The outlandish sales estimates like what you quoted give me concern as an investor. The more aggressive the analysts become in their sales estimates, the more likely it will be that AAPL will miss one. A miss from a company that has routinely beaten estimates by a lot will stop the share price momentum dead in its tracks.

I agree completely, and the sad part is that as unreliable as P/E is for the reasons you gave, it is the most reliable component of PEG. The "G" part is predicted growth (either over 3 or 5 years) and historically the estimates aren't close.

A study was done by the Penn State business school covering all published estimates from Wall Street analysts over a 20 year period. Their average annual growth from their 5 year estimates was 14.9% growth. Actual growth for those companies was 9.1% That was based on a 20 year comprehensive study. They weren't much more accurate on the shorter term one year estimates. Their average annual growth from 1 year predictions was 13.8% and the actual growth was 9.8%

Their estimates miss by 50%.

PEG is like any other predictive tool, it should be used in conjunction with other factors and tools to look for consistency or inconsistency in the results. It shouldn't be relied on too heavily in and of itself.

Little did I realize that when I said AAPL would eventually have a quarterly "miss" that it would be the very next one.

[mraynrand]

AAPL share price could take a double hit as investors ruminate over not only the first quarterly "miss" in forever, but also what the death of Steve Jobs will mean to the company.

[Patler]

Estimates for AAPL were $7.296 quarterly earnings per share, and they reported $7.05 today after the close. Their first "miss" in about 5 years.

They key factor now is if this causes FY2012 revisions downward; or if the delay in releasing the new iphone is simply pushing sales back.

So far, analysts seem to be perceiving the miss as the result of sales movement, not lost sales, as customers postponed iPhone purchases to wait for the new model. Their projections for 2012 are up about 4% from previous projections.

AAPL shares down about 5%.