Another boring money post

[Patler]

AAPL. Just saw a 12 month estimate at 610 USD. It's at 385 right now.

You may have just gotten lucky, Pat, I have no idea. Historical annual yields are what, less than 10%. 100% in 2 years when I should be earning 18-20% if spectacular. Sure, some stocks may do better, others may do worse. If I make a 300% profit in 4 years, which mathematically will likely happen, that's downright unbelievable. Regardless of your stocks may have done, it's foolish to say that AAPL has been anything less than a dream stock.

AAPL is recession proof right now. It's unbelievably safe. The PEG ratio is fantastic. People are not going to stop buying iPhones and iPads anytime soon. Apple has this market by the balls and the strangle hold will only continue to get stronger while the total size of the market increases. 150M iPhones in one year at 400 profit per phone?? RIDICULOUS!!

It's not foolish to love a stock that is recession proof, has gone up >100% in two years, and is likely to hit 1000 within a few years, giving me a >500% return. Yes, I know, when the market would have made me ~50% in 5 years, I've been busy making 500%. 10x market pace IS priceless!

I don't agree with this. It's risky, yes, but it's a calculated risk. It's not playing blackjack. There is sound math and historical evidence behind it.

Apple is about as recession proof as it gets, imo. There margins are 40-50%. If they need to temporarily cut the cost of goods to sell them, they'll be able to do so and still be quite profitable.

Obviously there are inherit risks with investing. I'm really big into applying math principals into them. Lots of people look at PE, but I like the much less commonly used PEG because it accounts for growth. PEG ratio is a phenomenal indication for purchasing stocks. Something like 94% of stocks perform according to what the ratio dictates I've read. That's a pretty strong indication, in my opinion.

FWIW, AAPL has the biggest market capitalization of any company in the world. There's nothing tinkertoy about it.

Patler, I completely agree with you that obviously there are stocks that are going to do better and worse. I know you obviously like AAPL, who wouldn't when they own it , my point is saying that while there may be some better stocks out there, AAPL is pretty outrageously good. Lots of financial analysts that are quoted on appleinsider.com are saying that 600 is the new 12 month price, and that it's only going to keep going up. I've read some say that is it the best stock to buy right now. We both know it's ridiculously under valued. Eventually the market has a way of correcting itself and putting it's PE in line with other very large companies (which will make it very, very valuable). IMO, it's very safe, and it's something that I know very well and follow closely. Part of the reason I'm such a strong advocate for it is because I follow Apple as closely as anyone. It would be foolish for me to invest in some other companies that I don't follow and aren't particularly interested in supporting, because I won't know when the time is right to buy in or get out.

RG hit the nail on the head when he said a few years back to only invest in something you fully understand. For me, that's AAPL and that's why I'm such a strong advocate of it.

Analysts could be wrong, but their livelihood depends on them being right.

"RBC Capital Markets sees Apple earning $110 billion in revenue in fiscal 2011, growing to $140 billion in revenue the following year, and $167 billion by fiscal 2013. It has a $500 price target for AAPL stock."

167 billion at 25-30% operating margin is just incredible. The race to $1000 continues!

Partial;

Big day for AAPL tomrrow, could be awful for their share price.

Estimates for AAPL were $7.296 quarterly earnings per share, and they reported $7.05 today after the close. Their first "miss" in about 5 years.

Could trigger a massive sell-off of AAPL as those with "paper profits" earned over the last 2 years seek to lock them in. A drop of $40-$50/share (about 10%) will probably happen. Maybe even a lot more than that.

It appears the analysts were, in fact, wrong, at least in their quarterly estimates.

They key factor now is if this causes FY2012 revisions downward; or if the delay in releasing the new iphone is simply pushing sales back.

AAPL share price could take a double hit as investors ruminate over not only the first quarterly "miss" in forever, but also what the death of Steve Jobs will mean to the company.