Another boring money post

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Don't less than half of cell phone users have smartphones? How are they essential to the average consumer? This Apple lovefest is predictably disconnected with the realities of the company, the economy, and the fundamentals of the stock market.

I believe they finally passed 50%. It's GROWING. Read quotes from CEOs like Motorola Mobility, Google, Apple, etc. This is a post PC era. Within 5 years people won't have notebooks at work, they'll have smart phones with a dock for a keyboard and external display. This is happening now. Who's leading the charge?? Apple.

Realities of the company? What does this even mean?

The economy? Apple has blown up as much as anyone in a down economy. People need computers, and in the post-PC era, people "need" smart phones. This isn't going to change. It's naive to expect the explosive growth of smart phones to stop or even slow. Simply ridiculous, in my opinion. This train isn't stopping anytime soon.

Fundamentals of the stock market?? What does this even mean? I can only assume that you don't expect AAPL to continue to blow up. I would bet my bottom dollars Apple hits 1000 soon. It's price is ridiculously out of sync with what it should be for a company of it's size, profitability, growth, revenue, etc. It is crazy under-valued.

You're only going to be able to get a smart phone soon. Perhaps the smart phones of today will be the dumb phones of tomorrow. I don't see how using an iPhone is any more challenging than using a dumb phone. I can absolutely see how using an Android phone is like using linux on a computer aka a horrible experience for the user.

[SkinBasket]

There isn't a better device for a toddler than an iPad.

Oh lord.

[SkinBasket]

An essential part of life? For someone without a job, or with reduced income? For someone who has to take a lower paying job while putting food on the table for a family?

To be honest, I can't think of anyone for whom a smartphone really is essential.

Haven't you seen the masses of dead poor people in the street? Sad, really. They had plenty of food, free health care, shelter... hell even free cable TV converter boxes. But alas, they had no smartphones.

[Freak Out]

FUCK YEA!

[mraynrand]

I think I am going to kill myself for buying a smart phone. Just because I feel like a total asshole for getting duped into paying outrageous surcharges and federal taxes.

[MJZiggy]

Don't less than half of cell phone users have smartphones? How are they essential to the average consumer? This Apple lovefest is predictably disconnected with the realities of the company, the economy, and the fundamentals of the stock market.

P is forgetting that I AM the average consumer. And I just bought an Android...I will never buy an iPad and will use my laptop (non-Mac) until the day it dies. Oh, and P? About your price articles? There's this thing. It's called the store. If you go in one and look, you'll find out that I didn't buy an Apple because that number on the thing called the price tag was way bigger than the one below my current laptop. Like by a lot. I am average. I don't have money to toss away on more expensive products. And, quite frankly, I trust my source of pricing information more than yours.

An iPad for a toddler? Ya wanna know what the best devices are for toddlers? A book read in while cuddled up in Mama's lap and a set of building blocks. And maybe a baby gate or some cabinet locks or something. Jesus.

[SkinBasket]

A book read in while cuddled up in Mama's lap and a set of building blocks.

Excuse me?

[MJZiggy]

Excuse me?

My apologies. Edit to: "loving caregiver's"

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P is forgetting that I AM the average consumer. And I just bought an Android...I will never buy an iPad and will use my laptop (non-Mac) until the day it dies. Oh, and P? About your price articles? There's this thing. It's called the store. If you go in one and look, you'll find out that I didn't buy an Apple because that number on the thing called the price tag was way bigger than the one below my current laptop. Like by a lot. I am average. I don't have money to toss away on more expensive products. And, quite frankly, I trust my source of pricing information more than yours.

An iPad for a toddler? Ya wanna know what the best devices are for toddlers? A book read in while cuddled up in Mama's lap and a set of building blocks. And maybe a baby gate or some cabinet locks or something. Jesus.

Ziggy, why do you try to argue about F'in everything. You have no idea what you are talking about. Tits or wheels, I guess.

You are an average consumer. Sure. That doesn't mean you're every consumer. You're one of almost seven billion consumers. This is evidence by millions of people buying iPads and millions more buying iPhones. At one point, the iPad was the fastest adopted consumer electronics product ever. EVER.

You're factually incorrect about the notion of Apple products being more expensive. Look at any computer that pays a lick of attention to build quality, having quality graphics, latest processors, etc, and you'll find that Apple computers are priced modestly. Furthermore, iPad and iPhone are both extremely competitively priced. Note that the Samsung Epic is 250 dollars on contract when it came out, where as the iPhone 4, a better, faster phone, was 200. Also note that the Motorola XOOM was originally priced more than the iPad. Pretty much every tablet company has had to cut their margins to near nothing to match the iPad. This is why HP got out of this industry. So, please explain to me again how these things were overpriced.

See some links putting the moronic price claims you're making to bed.

http://macdailynews.com/2011/07/29/p...th-ultrabooks/
http://www.isuppli.com/teardowns/new...dvantages.aspx
http://www.engadget.com/2011/01/22/m...h-at-best-buy/
http://www.hardwarezone.com/tech-new...e-revised-s599
http://hothardware.com/News/Samsungs...0-On-Contract/
http://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/...ista,1985.html

"The biggest complaints about Apple are its lock down of Mac OS X to Apple hardware, and its prices. We put the price myth about its systems to rest, but Apple needs to take a long hard look at its upgrade options for customers — upgrades that are priced outside the realm of common sense."

So, Tom's hardware, a nonpartisan third party who is far more informed than you, says the only thing that Apple gouges people on is BTO upgrades. Most people either A) do these themselves, or B) pay a lot. I don't have a problem with this because it interferes with Apple's streamlined supply chain. Having said that, as an extremely demanding user, I have never once had to use a BTO option for a Mac or a PC that I've purchased from the vendor of the computer.

In the latest Tom's hardware post, about halfway down the page, there is an excellent cost comparison between Dell and Apple. When you don't get the POS Dell's, the Dell's are actually more expensive then the Macs, despite being slower, less feature rich machines that are 2x as thick and weigh 2x as much. What say you about this, Ziggy? There is also a comparison of Voodoo PC, a hardware company that HP bought and pretty much ruined.

It's not fair to compare a 10 lbs, 3" thick plastic inspiron with a celeron processor, loads of bloatware, crappy keyboards/trackpads/power cords/no resale value/etc to a 2 lbs, .5" anodized aluminum MBA with a bleeding edge process, no bloat ware, backlit keyboards, glass trackpads, magnetic power cords, high resale value, etc. It's comparing a 1995 Chevy Cavalier to a 2011 Ferrari. Stop. Doing. It.

Just because it's more expensive than your current computer, doesn't mean it's more expensive than similarly spec'd systems. The last american companies in the computer hardware industry are going to be Apple and Dell within the next year. There isn't money to be made on consumers like you who like buying POS systems, that's why HP is getting out of that game. Consumers who want something to last, take college students and engineers, buy Apple. Apple is by far and away the most popular consumer electronics company with college students.

I'm done debating with you. You're too uninformed for it to be worth it. You're absolutely naive if you don't think the iPad is the learning device of the future. Interactive content, baby!

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/05/ed...pagewanted=all
http://www.fastcompany.com/1733662/h...room-education
http://blog.stratepedia.org/2010/01/...d-go-together/
http://www.parentdish.com/2010/04/20...-screen-its-w/
http://www.pbs.org/teacherline/blog/...nge-education/
http://thejournal.com/articles/2010/...education.aspx

[MJZiggy]

It was more expensive than almost all of them. Try closing the blog and look in a STORE. You know where you BUY stuff. For, like PRICES. Preferably, make it a store that sells both and compare. I did that. I walked into the STORE and I looked at the PRICES. Trust me, if the Apples were cheaper, they might have had a chance. I consider the STORE to be a really good source of information on PRICES. As a matter of fact, I think stores are the best pricing sources available. I don't compare computers by weight. I compare them by what they do. Apple is way expensive for what it can do. My laptop does everything that the Apple could have for several hundred dollars less. SEVERAL HUNDRED. On the PRICE TAG in the STORE. That's all the information I need, thanks.

Remember, at one point IBM ruled the computing world. They were untouchable...

Oh, and if you'd ever paid ANY attention to educational learning besides what the Apple PR team tells you, you'd realize that the best educational toy bar none is a set of basic Lego blocks. An iPad will never develop fine motor skills in toddlers and that will never change despite what software you load it with. Stand up son and remove that Apple branded dildo from your ass. It's quite unattractive.

[Patler]

...
You're factually incorrect about the notion of Apple products being more expensive.
...

I didn't want to quote the whole post, but what your post really says is that Apples are not more expensive than other really expensive computers. It misses the point. Apples are way more expensive than what most people really need to spend on their computers. They don't need the other really expensive computers either.

Kind of like cars. One really expensive car is not more expensive than other really expensive cars, but they are more expensive than what people really require to satisfy their transportation needs.

[Upnorth]

For myself, I am all about the Blackberry. Its all I will use due to security in the industry I am in. Price is the same as Apple ipad. It has less app's than the ipud, but I don't use apps.
Apple is trendy, but so were bellbottoms. Apple is cyclical, the question is where are they on the cycle?

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I didn't want to quote the whole post, but what your post really says is that Apples are not more expensive than other really expensive computers. It misses the point. Apples are way more expensive than what most people really need to spend on their computers. They don't need the other really expensive computers either.

Kind of like cars. One really expensive car is not more expensive than other really expensive cars, but they are more expensive than what people really require to satisfy their transportation needs.

Apple computers aren't more expensive than other high end computers. They're more expensive than a 10 lbs crap dell inspiron, sure. I wouldn't buy a Chevy Cavalier, and I wouldn't buy a Dell Inspiron either. The Mac isn't the BMW that people so often use in the comparison, it's the Honda Civic. It costs a little more, but is by far and away better than the Chevy. It's the little things like the dashboard layout, the engine, the design, the attention to detail, and the overall quality of the machine.

American companies are getting out of the low end PC business because there isn't money to be made. Nobody wins on 2% profit margin.

Apple recognized that with wicked fast flash memory getting cheaper and mobile chips getting faster, we don't need these big computers. By strategically investing years ago, Apple has huge supply chain cost advantages in the ~500 dollar computing device range. They're making an iPad that is faster to the end user (albeit less powerful) that is a much better user experience than the ~500 dollar 10x heavier, 10x slower booting, 10x less focused device. They also found a way to make 40% profit on it where as Dell is making 2-3%. They're making 20x more money on these machines then Dell, and the consumer likes them infinitely more as the user experience is king. That's pretty amazing, isn't it?

I don't necessarily agree that computers are fast enough in general. People want 1080P video today, and soon that'll be 4k video. People want to push 3d graphics to the limit, something that Macs can do that Ziggy's crap 500 dollar laptop won't do (cheap integrated graphics). They have bleeding edge processors for cpu intensive tasks like editing photos, editing video, etc.

Honestly, every single day, I find myself longing for a faster computer. My MBP isn't fast enough for what I do. No laptop is yet. I'm very anxiously awaiting an 8 core system with 8GB ram. I'll pair that with an SSD and finally will be able to fly in my work flow. Then again, I'm a software developer so I'm constantly pushing my system to the limit.

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For myself, I am all about the Blackberry. Its all I will use due to security in the industry I am in. Price is the same as Apple ipad. It has less app's than the ipud, but I don't use apps.
Apple is trendy, but so were bellbottoms. Apple is cyclical, the question is where are they on the cycle?

You bought a Playbook? I think it's you and about 19 other people Boy oh boy did that thing ever not sell well. I'm actually shocked it hasn't gotten the same treatment as the HP Touchpad yet. I really like the user experience of the UI with QNX. I think it has a lot of potential. Having said that, having it developer in Adobe Air (slow as heck) is a poor decision in my opinion.

[MJZiggy]

I don't necessarily agree that computers are fast enough in general. People want 1080P video today, and soon that'll be 4k video. People want to push 3d graphics to the limit, something that Macs can do that Ziggy's crap 500 dollar laptop won't do (cheap integrated graphics). They have bleeding edge processors for cpu intensive tasks like editing photos, editing video, etc.

Honestly, every single day, I find myself longing for a faster computer. My MBP isn't fast enough for what I do. No laptop is yet. I'm very anxiously awaiting an 8 core system with 8GB ram. I'll pair that with an SSD and finally will be able to fly in my work flow. Then again, I'm a software developer so I'm constantly pushing my system to the limit.

Again you fail to understand the perspective of others when it doesn't match your own. First, you don't know what kind of computer I own or how much it's worth. That said, it doesn't matter when you look at the predictions of Apple's future performance. Upnorth is right. Apple is a trend. How many other trends have there been? Palm. Any others?

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"RBC Capital Markets sees Apple earning $110 billion in revenue in fiscal 2011, growing to $140 billion in revenue the following year, and $167 billion by fiscal 2013. It has a $500 price target for AAPL stock."

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...ne_4_hype.html

167 billion at 25-30% operating margin is just incredible. The race to $1000 continues!

[3irty1]

I believe they finally passed 50%. It's GROWING. Read quotes from CEOs like Motorola Mobility, Google, Apple, etc. This is a post PC era. Within 5 years people won't have notebooks at work, they'll have smart phones with a dock for a keyboard and external display. This is happening now. Who's leading the charge?? Apple.

Well I googled for it and the number I saw was 40%. I'm sure it is growing but by no stretch of even your imagination could a smartphone be considered "essential to the average consumer" nor should their manufacturers be labeled as "recession proof." As for all your futurist stuff, we'll see but the prediction that iphones will replace the windows PC's and laptops currently used in business within 5 years reeks of typical fanboy none sense.

Realities of the company? What does this even mean?

Apple ever being undervalued is about as likely as ever getting good superbowl odds on the Dallas Cowboys--the fan bases of each make it impossible. All financial institutions that I know of are based on the idea that humans are always logical with their money. Humans of course are actually human with their money and the stock market is a way to capitalize on such. Apple has such an unparalleled following of loyal fans that the stock will always be extra risky just because of that. If its not a bubble already it is virtually guaranteed to become one eventually. You're citing stock information that you got off of appleinsider.com for beltsakes... you understand the conflict of interest there right?

The economy? Apple has blown up as much as anyone in a down economy. People need computers, and in the post-PC era, people "need" smart phones. This isn't going to change. It's naive to expect the explosive growth of smart phones to stop or even slow. Simply ridiculous, in my opinion. This train isn't stopping anytime soon.

I'd buy too if I seriously thought that iphones and ipads were going to replace all phones, all educational and buisness computing devices, and all pants. The main problem I have with that is that it's insane. Almost as insane as saying an expensive and luxurious cell phone is essential to most people. I'm sure in the Dutch Golden age people probably said stuff like this:

"The economy? Tulips have blown up as much as anything in a down economy. People need tulips, and in the post-war era, people "need" multi-colored tulips. This isn't going to change. It's naive to expect the explosive growth of tulips to stop or even slow. Simply ridiculous, in my opinion. This boat isn't stopping anytime soon."

Fundamentals of the stock market?? What does this even mean? I can only assume that you don't expect AAPL to continue to blow up. I would bet my bottom dollars Apple hits 1000 soon. It's price is ridiculously out of sync with what it should be for a company of it's size, profitability, growth, revenue, etc. It is crazy under-valued.

To make a killing the likes of which you are predicting in the market a company has to do better than the vast majority thinks it will. I do expect apple to continue to blow up, then I expect it to pop. Go ahead and bet your bottom dollar on it and ride it to prosperity, just watch it closely and get out before appleinsider.com tells you to.

You're only going to be able to get a smart phone soon. Perhaps the smart phones of today will be the dumb phones of tomorrow. I don't see how using an iPhone is any more challenging than using a dumb phone. I can absolutely see how using an Android phone is like using linux on a computer aka a horrible experience for the user.

Not sure what you mean by soon but as long as there are people who will only pay between $15 and $40 per month for a phone there will be dumb phones. Right now that number is over half of the population. I've never used an android phone but you know that linux is my jam so that last sentence is probably lost on me. Linux is a pretty big umbrella to label all of it as a "horrible experience on a computer." My girlfriend and 3.5 year old neighbor girl both use ubuntu 11.04 without complaints.

[Patler]

"RBC Capital Markets sees Apple earning $110 billion in revenue in fiscal 2011, growing to $140 billion in revenue the following year, and $167 billion by fiscal 2013. It has a $500 price target for AAPL stock."

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...ne_4_hype.html

167 billion at 25-30% operating margin is just incredible. The race to $1000 continues!

There is a saying among analysts that, in the long term, the market is never wrong. What they mean is that the market determines the share price, regardless of what analysts think the price should be. So the market is never wrong, but analysts often are wrong.

So far, over the last two years or so, AAPL has climbed steadily, and that is a good thing. Momentum is a good thing. But, AAPL has missed the analysts share price targets continually. In spite of significant "beats" on earning estimates, the stock has moved upward more slowly than analysts have predicted, and that is a bad thing, because analysts' share price estimates are based on their earnings estimates. While AAPL has exceeding the analysts earnings estimates significantly, the share price has not hit the analysts targets.

In other words, the market has been less impressed with AAPL's performance than the analysts have been. That makes AAPL a stock that should be watched closely. If they ever barely beat the consensus earnings estimates, or miss it, the stock could top out. In short, the market may determine the "correct" P/E for AAPL to be far different than analysts think it should be.

The outlandish sales estimates like what you quoted give me concern as an investor. The more aggressive the analysts become in their sales estimates, the more likely it will be that AAPL will miss one. A miss from a company that has routinely beaten estimates by a lot will stop the share price momentum dead in its tracks.

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Well I googled for it and the number I saw was 40%. I'm sure it is growing but by no stretch of even your imagination could a smartphone be considered "essential to the average consumer" nor should their manufacturers be labeled as "recession proof." As for all your futurist stuff, we'll see but the prediction that iphones will replace the windows PC's and laptops currently used in business within 5 years reeks of typical fanboy none sense.

I have no idea if it will be an iPhone. It probably won't be. 10 years is a long way away. One thing is for sure, though: It will be a smart phone in a dock. That one you can write in ink. That's happening.

Apple ever being undervalued is about as likely as ever getting good superbowl odds on the Dallas Cowboys--the fan bases of each make it impossible. All financial institutions that I know of are based on the idea that humans are always logical with their money. Humans of course are actually human with their money and the stock market is a way to capitalize on such. Apple has such an unparalleled following of loyal fans that the stock will always be extra risky just because of that. If its not a bubble already it is virtually guaranteed to become one eventually. You're citing stock information that you got off of appleinsider.com for beltsakes... you understand the conflict of interest there right?

Go to finance.yahoo.com and look at the PE. Look at the PEG. Look at the articles they link to analysts. You'll see 12 month estimates in the 600s. Those are conservative in my opinion. My love of Apple products makes it a smart decision to consider investing. My knowledge of basic math and economics makes it a smart decision to invest. I wouldn't invest in something just because I like their products. I have to see the value in it. Let's say hypothetical I was a staunch Windows supporter... I would still think that AAPL is a great investment because the math behind it makes sense. The PE and PEG are so out of whack and their forecasts are simply awesome. If it weren't for AAPL, I would have a ton of money in GE because it is extremely undervalued right now as well when you factor in their dividends. That is a fantastic investment now.

I'd buy too if I seriously thought that iphones and ipads were going to replace all phones, all educational and buisness computing devices, and all pants. The main problem I have with that is that it's insane. Almost as insane as saying an expensive and luxurious cell phone is essential to most people. I'm sure in the Dutch Golden age people probably said stuff like this:

iPad is going to own education. You wait and see. It's already happening. Smart phones are quickly killing the feature phone. 5 years from now, the low end feature phone will be a smart phone of today.

You're not looking forward. You're looking at today and the past. This technology is evolving FAST. You should follow some of the execs of these companies on Twitter. Rahul Sood @rahulsood is an excellent example. He's an exec from MS that gets it. An excellent follow on general business/technology stuff. He's a change agent who gets it. This is a post PC world. Companies are either going to evolve or die. NOW is the time to act, not 5 years from now when the wheels are too far in motion.

"The economy? Tulips have blown up as much as anything in a down economy. People need tulips, and in the post-war era, people "need" multi-colored tulips. This isn't going to change. It's naive to expect the explosive growth of tulips to stop or even slow. Simply ridiculous, in my opinion. This boat isn't stopping anytime soon."

What?

To make a killing the likes of which you are predicting in the market a company has to do better than the vast majority thinks it will. I do expect apple to continue to blow up, then I expect it to pop. Go ahead and bet your bottom dollar on it and ride it to prosperity, just watch it closely and get out before appleinsider.com tells you to.

Well obviously, everything that goes up comes down. That doesn't mean it's happening today or tomorrow. They have this market by the balls and are so far ahead of the competition they will kick ass for at least 3-4 more years. AAPL is gonna hit 1000. It's a very safe bet for the next few years. Google doesn't understand user experience, so they don't have a chance long term.... Microsoft is Apple's biggest threat in this space because Windows Phone 7 and Windows 8 are beautiful and innovative. Google has made the new beige box. Crazy to think that MS gets it before Google, but then again they have visionary execs like Rahul Sood who understand that user experience is king.

Not sure what you mean by soon but as long as there are people who will only pay between $15 and $40 per month for a phone there will be dumb phones. Right now that number is over half of the population. I've never used an android phone but you know that linux is my jam so that last sentence is probably lost on me. Linux is a pretty big umbrella to label all of it as a "horrible experience on a computer." My girlfriend and 3.5 year old neighbor girl both use ubuntu 11.04 without complaints.

Ubuntu is still a disaster for the average consumer. The user experience isn't there. To be fair, I haven't used it since Jaunty Jackalope, so perhaps you know longer have to use apt-get and what not to install stuff.

Steve Jobs was right in his assessment that file systems and computers in general are too hard. Of course, we're tech savvy so we understand it, and are capable of using them just fine. That doesn't mean that they're designed in the right way, that means that they're designed in a way that we are familiar with and can use. The Post-PC world is changing this game. App stores and sandboxed applications are changing this game. iCloud, automatic document synching, etc are changing this game. In OS 10.7, you don't even have to save documents. It's pretty wild, but the OS just handles it for you. When you think about it, why wasn't it like this the entire time?? The game is changing man. The age of user experience is upon us. MS and Apple get it. Windows 8 looks incredible when you run things in the Metro UI skin. Hopefully most applications can run in it.

Data plans are a rip right now, I agree. Wireless broadband internet is going to surpass wired broadband soon, and prices will come down and competition and new technology adoption occurs. LTE is cheaper to provide than 3G, for example. By 2015 mobile internet use will surpass wired. http://www.bgr.com/2011/09/12/u-s-to...2015-idc-says/

Dumb phones are going to go away. You can be assured of that.

Crazy times we're living in. The world is changing more rapidly then ever. Technology is in a renaissance and it's a great thing. I was reading a blog post about how we've entered a time where technology is fast enough now that what differentiates between the products is user experience. While I don't agree that tech is adequately fast (Hardware constantly needs to be improved, this is something that I love about Apple, there mobile chips smoke the competition - this pushes tech forward), it's pretty crazy to think that we've entered a time where everyone can essentially be on a level playing field in terms of hardware speed and reasonably close on price, and we'll see who succeeds based on who can provide the best experience to the user. Ultimately, I think this is going to be a problem with Android. I don't think people want a Tron UI (honeycomb), and I don't think people should have to use advanced task manager to manage there memory. With WP7 and iOs, the OS provides a clean, fast interface and gets out of the way. It's a beautiful thing.

Patty, I agree about the expectations and the market dictating the price. The market will correct itself, though, and that's when we'll make our big time money. GE and Apple's PE is all out of whack right now. Anybody with a pair of eyes with the names of large, successful companies can see this easily.

[mraynrand]

I have no idea if it will be an iPhone. It probably won't be. 10 years is a long way away. One thing is for sure, though: It will be a smart phone in a dock. That one you can write in ink. That's happening.

The faster that happens the better. However, with my experiences with rate and tax and sur charges, I'm not looking forward to the day that everything is in the cloud and pay-for-service. I think they are going to gouge the hell out of us. And then, much like ATMs, credit cards, and bank fees, they will legislate it so that the ants pay for the locusts.