Another boring money post

[mraynrand]

I am going to make my own Gardasil and sell it for 50% off. Step 1: Isolate the live virus from my herpes sores.

[mraynrand]

Holy Jesus that hurt. Step 2: Now to culture those bastards on foreskin-derived keratinocytes. OUCH!

[swede]

Holy Jesus that hurt. Step 2: Now to culture those bastards on foreskin-derived keratinocytes. OUCH!

If any of that stuff is going to be stored in your fridge I'm taking a pass on the homemade salsa dip come Sunday. There's no way of knowing what's been in your Tupperware.

[mraynrand]

If any of that stuff is going to be stored in your fridge I'm taking a pass on the homemade salsa dip come Sunday. There's no way of knowing what's been in your Tupperware.

No, No! I have the dedicated 37C incubator for this stuff. The minifridge is for the attenuated virus once I grow it up. What you have to worry about is the chicken room where I make up the antibodies. Don't worry though, when I make up the chicken wings with the left-over carcasses after harvesting the antibodies, they are cooked long enough to kill the viruses - mostly.

[3irty1]

What a thread.

[mraynrand]

I'm conflicted about the way I grow chickens. I have them set up double decker. Problem is the guys upstairs crap on the guys downstairs. Now, my costs are lowered, because I can house more chickens per square foot in my basement laboratory, but I have to deal with chicken crap on half my animals. I can't afford more dropping pans, because of the economy. Oh well, I suppose I'd better get back to bleeding those chickens for more antibodies.

[MJZiggy]

I'm conflicted about the way I grow chickens. I have them set up double decker. Problem is the guys upstairs crap on the guys downstairs. Now, my costs are lowered, because I can house more chickens per square foot in my basement laboratory, but I have to deal with chicken crap on half my animals. I can't afford more dropping pans, because of the economy. Oh well, I suppose I'd better get back to bleeding those chickens for more antibodies.

You could always go free range.

[Patler]

I'm conflicted about the way I grow chickens. I have them set up double decker. Problem is the guys upstairs crap on the guys downstairs. Now, my costs are lowered, because I can house more chickens per square foot in my basement laboratory, but I have to deal with chicken crap on half my animals. I can't afford more dropping pans, because of the economy. Oh well, I suppose I'd better get back to bleeding those chickens for more antibodies.

Easy solution - use pens narrow enough that the damn things can't move in them. Perhaps you already use these. Offset the top pens about 2" from the bottom tier, with their buts overhanging the void below.

Simple, with minimal extra space needed. Heck, you can even add a third tier, offset by two inches from the middle tier. In just over 4" of floor space you can collect three tiers of chicken shit.

[mraynrand]

Easy solution - use pens narrow enough that the damn things can't move in them. Perhaps you already use these. Offset the top pens about 2" from the bottom tier, with their buts overhanging the void below.

Simple, with minimal extra space needed. Heck, you can even add a third tier, offset by two inches from the middle tier. In just over 4" of floor space you can collect three tiers of chicken shit.

Awesome idea. You know, I sell that chicken shit as fertilizer. Want some?

[Patler]

Partial,

Everything I have read seems to show that while Iphone may be the single largest in phone sales, Android is clearly the most popular system, and growing faster than AAPL's.

This reminds me of the Beta/VHS battle years ago.
- the one manufacturer with the most sales used Beta.
- Beta was exclusive to the one manufacturer.
- VHS was openly licensed to anyone.
- everyone else used VHS.
- For many reasons, the techies preferred Beta, were convinced that it was superior and believed it was only a matter of time until it made VHS disappear.

But, VHS was offered in many cheaper, inferior products which allowed it to penetrate the very large market of people who wanted something but couldn't afford the more expensive products with Beta.

The smartphone battle seems to be history repeating itself. It may not end well for AAPL years from now.

[superfan]

Partial,

Everything I have read seems to show that while Iphone may be the single largest in phone sales, Android is clearly the most popular system, and growing faster than AAPL's.

This reminds me of the Beta/VHS battle years ago.
- the one manufacturer with the most sales used Beta.
- Beta was exclusive to the one manufacturer.
- VHS was openly licensed to anyone.
- everyone else used VHS.
- For many reasons, the techies preferred Beta, were convinced that it was superior and believed it was only a matter of time until it made VHS disappear.

But, VHS was offered in many cheaper, inferior products which allowed it to penetrate the very large market of people who wanted something but couldn't afford the more expensive products with Beta.

The smartphone battle seems to be history repeating itself. It may not end well for AAPL years from now.

Excellent analogy. There are countless other examples where technologically superior products have failed to be successful due to a variety of reasons.

One thing the iPhone may have in its favor compared to predecessors is that the most common reasons those products failed were that they were either under-marketed or poorly marketed. I can't imagine anyone would claim that Apple has insufficiently promoted the iPhone.

[Partial]

Partial,

Everything I have read seems to show that while Iphone may be the single largest in phone sales, Android is clearly the most popular system, and growing faster than AAPL's.

This reminds me of the Beta/VHS battle years ago.
- the one manufacturer with the most sales used Beta.
- Beta was exclusive to the one manufacturer.
- VHS was openly licensed to anyone.
- everyone else used VHS.
- For many reasons, the techies preferred Beta, were convinced that it was superior and believed it was only a matter of time until it made VHS disappear.

But, VHS was offered in many cheaper, inferior products which allowed it to penetrate the very large market of people who wanted something but couldn't afford the more expensive products with Beta.

The smartphone battle seems to be history repeating itself. It may not end well for AAPL years from now.

Patrick,

Android is the most popular system because of the iPhones carrier restriction. All statistics I've read point to it crushing the competition on a per carrier basis. See data that it's the most popular smartphone on both ATT and Verizon by a mile. A crystal clear indicator of this is the iPad. It has, what, 70% market share despite being out what, 6 months longer than the competition (if that)?

Steve said that he won't make the mistake again of going for margins instead of market share. Due to Apple's superior supply chain, plethora of patents (which are BS in my opinion), etc, they are producing higher quality handsets (John Ive design) for as much money as the competition, so the issue isn't supply chain and licensing. This time around, once they're on all carriers, they'll compete head to head on level playing ground with Android and win. Does anyone really think that Android is a more polished user experience? You're kidding yourself if this is the case?? Apple understand what is it at stake monetarily and won't lose to the competition (previously Microsoft) again.

I have no doubt that Android is a high priority for Google and something they thing is mission critical to future success. Having said that, as good as Google search is, I think that Google, in general, misses on user experience. Android is not at all user friendly. It has serious issues with malware, bloatware on stock devices, fragmentation, allocation of limited resources, etc. The fact that the rom community and rooting is so common is a testament to how big of a "nerd" device it is.

The Beta/VHS comparisons are moot because you aren't looking at UX, which is the single most important factor in my professional opinion. My other professional thought is that Windows Phone 7 is the competition, not Android. Microsoft has their toe in way too much commercial software not to get into the thick of things, and their UX is incredible for WP7.

[MJZiggy]

XXXXXXX,

Android is the most popular system because of the iPhones carrier restriction. All statistics I've read point to it crushing the competition on a per carrier basis. See data that it's the most popular smartphone on both ATT and Verizon by a mile. A crystal clear indicator of this is the iPad. It has, what, 70% market share despite being out what, 6 months longer than the competition (if that)?

Steve said that he won't make the mistake again of going for margins instead of market share. Due to Apple's superior supply chain, plethora of patents (which are BS in my opinion), etc, they are producing higher quality handsets (John Ive design) for as much money as the competition, so the issue isn't supply chain and licensing. This time around, once they're on all carriers, they'll compete head to head on level playing ground with Android and win. Does anyone really think that Android is a more polished user experience? You're kidding yourself if this is the case?? Apple understand what is it at stake monetarily and won't lose to the competition (previously Microsoft) again.

I have no doubt that Android is a high priority for Google and something they thing is mission critical to future success. Having said that, as good as Google search is, I think that Google, in general, misses on user experience. Android is not at all user friendly. It has serious issues with malware, bloatware on stock devices, fragmentation, allocation of limited resources, etc. The fact that the rom community and rooting is so common is a testament to how big of a "nerd" device it is.

The Beta/VHS comparisons are moot because you aren't looking at UX, which is the single most important factor in my professional opinion. My other professional thought is that Windows Phone 7 is the competition, not Android. Microsoft has their toe in way too much commercial software not to get into the thick of things, and their UX is incredible for WP7.

Are you trying to get banned again?

[Patler]

Patrick,

Android is the most popular system because of the iPhones carrier restriction. All statistics I've read point to it crushing the competition on a per carrier basis. See data that it's the most popular smartphone on both ATT and Verizon by a mile. A crystal clear indicator of this is the iPad. It has, what, 70% market share despite being out what, 6 months longer than the competition (if that)?

Steve said that he won't make the mistake again of going for margins instead of market share. Due to Apple's superior supply chain, plethora of patents (which are BS in my opinion), etc, they are producing higher quality handsets (John Ive design) for as much money as the competition, so the issue isn't supply chain and licensing. This time around, once they're on all carriers, they'll compete head to head on level playing ground with Android and win. Does anyone really think that Android is a more polished user experience? You're kidding yourself if this is the case?? Apple understand what is it at stake monetarily and won't lose to the competition (previously Microsoft) again.

I have no doubt that Android is a high priority for Google and something they thing is mission critical to future success. Having said that, as good as Google search is, I think that Google, in general, misses on user experience. Android is not at all user friendly. It has serious issues with malware, bloatware on stock devices, fragmentation, allocation of limited resources, etc. The fact that the rom community and rooting is so common is a testament to how big of a "nerd" device it is.

The Beta/VHS comparisons are moot because you aren't looking at UX, which is the single most important factor in my professional opinion. My other professional thought is that Windows Phone 7 is the competition, not Android. Microsoft has their toe in way too much commercial software not to get into the thick of things, and their UX is incredible for WP7.

You fail to understand what went on during the Beta/VHS war. Sony created the home video recording market when people didn't even know they wanted such a thing (sound familiar to Apple?) They had the first consumer targeted VTR, and quickly followed it with the first VCR. Many of the first new features came from Sony, things like paused recording, recording one channel while watching another, thinner and narrower tapes making for compact size, slow motion, indexing, etc.. Initially, picture quality was better on Beta. All very similar to what you now proclaim to be the unsurpassable advantage held by Apple. Sony had better features, provided a better user experience and a far superior visual package because it was much smaller and lighter.

However, the fact that multiple competitors went to the VHS format lead to competition between them, and ultimately new and more rapid development of the VHS format than the Beta format. Most importantly, VHS became cheaper. For a long time features were better on Beta, but not everyone could afford to pay for all of those features. They wanted a cheaper option with the most basic features, so they bought VHS models. Eventually, the shear volume of VHS from multiple providers simply buried Beta.

I could see the smartphone wars going the same way as VCRs. It doesn't matter if Android is the one, or something else. If one competitor is selling one thing, and most others are selling something different, the one competitor can easily lose the battle for a consumer based product.

For the time being at least, AAPL remains a very good investment opportunity. They climbed back to just above $400 yesterday, just short of their previous high of $404. I expect they will surpass that leading into their next quarterly.

[MJZiggy]

You fail to understand what went on during the Beta/VHS war. Sony created the home video recording market when people didn't even know they wanted such a thing (sound familiar to Apple?) They had the first consumer targeted VTR, and quickly followed it with the first VCR. Many of the first new features came from Sony, things like paused recording, recording one channel while watching another, thinner and narrower tapes making for compact size, slow motion, indexing, etc.. Initially, picture quality was better on Beta. All very similar to what you now proclaim to be the unsurpassable advantage held by Apple. Sony had better features, provided a better user experience and a far superior visual package because it was much smaller and lighter.

However, the fact that multiple competitors went to the VHS format lead to competition between them, and ultimately new and more rapid development of the VHS format than the Beta format. Most importantly, VHS became cheaper. For a long time features were better on Beta, but not everyone could afford to pay for all of those features. They wanted a cheaper option with the most basic features, so they bought VHS models. Eventually, the shear volume of VHS from multiple providers simply buried Beta.

I could see the smartphone wars going the same way as VCRs. It doesn't matter if Android is the one, or something else. If one competitor is selling one thing, and most others are selling something different, the one competitor can easily lose the battle for a consumer based product.

For the time being at least, AAPL remains a very good investment opportunity. They climbed back to just above $400 yesterday, just short of their previous high of $404. I expect they will surpass that leading into their next quarterly.

Sony was the hot commodity that I was searching for. Remember how hot the Walkman was? Damn Sony was on the cutting edge, weren't they.

[Patler]

Sony was the hot commodity that I was searching for. Remember how hot the Walkman was? Damn Sony was on the cutting edge, weren't they.

Ya, there was a time when Sony was the consumer electronics god. Sony TV's were widely viewed as a cut above the rest for a long time, too. Sony audio systems for quality and price as a combination. Sony gadgets too.

[Little Whiskey]

Sony was the hot commodity that I was searching for. Remember how hot the Walkman was? Damn Sony was on the cutting edge, weren't they.

bleeding edge

[Scott Campbell]

Patrick,

Android is the most popular system because of the iPhones carrier restriction.

Except that's only one factor. Just as big a factor is that lots of manufacturers are free to build Android phones. And thus, Android provides many more choices in phones, as well as carriers.


Sony didn't license beta. VHS won.

Apple didn't license the Mac OS. Windows won.


There might be a pattern here.

[Patler]

Except that's only one factor. Just as big a factor is that lots of manufacturers are free to build Android phones. And thus, Android provides many more choices in phones, as well as carriers.


Sony didn't license beta. VHS won.

Apple didn't license the Mac OS. Windows won.


There might be a pattern here.

Sure looks like one to me!

[Partial]

Except that's only one factor. Just as big a factor is that lots of manufacturers are free to build Android phones. And thus, Android provides many more choices in phones, as well as carriers.

To a degree, yes. I think you'd have a hard time telling HTC that it's free to build Android devices. They're being sued into oblivion. The Motorola Mobility patent profile is weak evidently and analysts don't expect it to help much. In addition to that, HTC pays a hefty licensing fee to Microsoft for patents in every handset they sell.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11217...sing-fees.html

Google is also in some seriously hot water for not licensing java properly. Oracle won't back down.

Having said that, I think this is ridiculous. Patent law is so backwards in software. I would love it if Google really could distribute it for free. Hopefully they will be able to soon. To clarify, Android's presence is good. Android as a consumer piece of software is a nightmare.

Sony didn't license beta. VHS won.

Apple didn't license the Mac OS. Windows won.

There might be a pattern here.

Did MS really win? Apple makes more money and is worth more today. I agree that marketshare is hugely important and Windows clearly dominates this. At the end of the day, though, the goal of the business is to make money, so shouldn't this be the merit we choose the winner on? By that merit, Apple is currently winning.

http://articles.businessinsider.com/...crosoft-profit


Scott, what do you have to say about the tablet market where we have a wide variety of competitors and a slew of Android tablets. Adoption rate of tablets has been as fast as any consumer electronic ever developed and Androids adoption rate/market share is actually decreasing instead of increasing in this space. The same principals of being free to use and a wide variety of Android tablets exist. How do you explain this?

What is the difference between smart phones and tablets? Is there a big difference in quality of the user experience between the iPhone and the iPad? Is the level of competition different? What about the quality of the versions of Android between the two?

To me, the big difference is the middle man (the carriers). This soon won't be an issue for iPhone.

Pat, to me, AAPL has a few more good years in it before the growth will slow down. They simply cannot keep doubling in sales every year for much longer. Having said that, I think they can continue to grow rapidly for two more years at least.

It is refreshing to discuss with intellectuals, fellas. Keep it up. It would be great if the likes of RG/Ziggy would bring something besides sarcasm and ass-hattery to the table if they wished to continue to discuss.

edit:

I cannot stress enough how we are now in the age of software. Software is what will define the two technologies. With the vhs stuff, we're looking at hardware. Both had roughly equivalent user experiences, did they not? Maybe one had technical superiority, I don't know. In my opinion, this battle will be won in software. If the iPhone never existed and Android gingerbread was the standard, we'd think it was incredible. Having said that, iOs does exist and it's a much more pleasant user experience. Smartphones are so paramount in your typical person's day (email, calendar, calls, communication, etc) that the user wants the best possible experience.

Android has some unique characteristics that are good, such as their notification system that Apple blatantly ripped off. It seems to be that basically all of the complaints/reasons people would go with Android today are going to be moot with the iPhone 5.

"Android phones have bigger screens" - iPhone 5 will have a beautiful 4" display (which is still the highest res display) which in my opinion is really the sweet spot on screen size. The original galaxy phones nailed the screen.

"I can't get an iPhone on my carrier and I'm on a family plan" - Not anymore, iPhone will be available on all of the major players according to the rumors. I really hope this is true.

The iCloud stuff breaking the cord from iTunes will really help. The iTunes infrastructure with music, videos, etc is great, but the notion of plugging in to load some on my device seems so archaic to me. This is late 2011, after all.

Users are going to be wowed when they snap photos on their iPhone and they automatically on their computer. Who doesn't hate synching photos? I know I do!

Little things like the photo synching things just make your life as a user better. Now this is obviously a super small chunk of the equation, but the user experience is made up of the sum of (the small) parts.