PIMPING STOCKS

[call_me_ishmael]

Bobble what do you think of SQ from the outside? I am torn on selling on vest vs holding. My stock grant is at 67 a share so I am down about 10% right now, but I would be okay with that if I didn't think there was a reasonable chance that Square improves fundamentals and goes up 20-30% in the next couple years. I don't really need the money so no need to sell right now. I am also presently holding as a hedge against getting laid off. If SQ does a layoff that impacts me, the stock will shoot up 20% probably so I am offset lost wages that way.

[bobblehead]

Bobble what do you think of SQ from the outside? I am torn on selling on vest vs holding. My stock grant is at 67 a share so I am down about 10% right now, but I would be okay with that if I didn't think there was a reasonable chance that Square improves fundamentals and goes up 20-30% in the next couple years. I don't really need the money so no need to sell right now. I am also presently holding as a hedge against getting laid off. If SQ does a layoff that impacts me, the stock will shoot up 20% probably so I am offset lost wages that way.

Hard to say with such a small player. You SHOULD have way better insight than anything I can come up with since you are on the inside (if you can be unbiased). Do you see anything to make you think that a small company can overcome headwinds placed in front of it by large competitors? Some proprietary advantage? I simply don't invest in any company that small. I also don't have enough idea of what they are all about to have a clue if they are a buyout candidate. My advice to you would go like this. If the stock option is worth less than 3% of your net worth you should hold it IF you believe the company will become a player or be bought out. If its more than 3% then I think you should liquidate down to 3% no matter what then return to my first option. I just think there are so many safe options that will almost (depending on overall economy and market) certainly get you 30% + over the next few years that I wouldn't tie up capital in such a small and risky company.

[bobblehead]

Thought I would revisit this thread. So, outside of Amazon (which we all agreed on) everything else has sold off with the market since I joined in. SRC is being bought out by O so its actually outperformed as well (the one I put the big write up in and noted I left out the part about it being a takeover target).

The stocks that pay the really big dividends but don't grow much have done exactly that. (the BDCs and Preferred fund).

I'm still mega bullish on Amazon and its over 5% of my portfolio and my only non dividend stock. I have made a little cash off of $140 options and currently have Nov 17th $160s I hope expire (but hopefully get CLOSE to exercising). Some of my faves like LNC have not improved. USB has moved mostly sideways. I didn't mention TFC which I got bullish on and opened a position in right after we died down. Its done well and pays a 7+ dividend.

[bobblehead]

Thought I would revisit this thread. So, outside of Amazon (which we all agreed on) everything else has sold off with the market since I joined in. SRC is being bought out by O so its actually outperformed as well (the one I put the big write up in and noted I left out the part about it being a takeover target).

The stocks that pay the really big dividends but don't grow much have done exactly that. (the BDCs and Preferred fund).

I'm still mega bullish on Amazon and its over 5% of my portfolio and my only non dividend stock. I have made a little cash off of $140 options and currently have Nov 17th $160s I hope expire (but hopefully get CLOSE to exercising). Some of my faves like LNC have not improved. USB has moved mostly sideways. I didn't mention TFC which I got bullish on and opened a position in right after we died down. Its done well and pays a 7+ dividend.

Since this, TFC is up about 30%, LNC 15%, USB 30%. Overall my portfolio popped over 10% not including the dividends I draw. It would have gone up more, but I have about 40% of the portfolio in income generation stocks that don't sink or rally as hard.

[call_me_ishmael]

A lot of my growth stocks are doing really well right now. Who knows if it will continue. I just sold 100K of SQ because I am up ~10% on it and I want to take some risk off the table. We are in the market for a house so going to move it to my 5% wealthfront account. I HATE doing that right now SO much. But I absolutely refuse to get F'd and get stuck with a 7-8% mortgage.

[call_me_ishmael]

Jeff Bezos is obviously on TRT but he's gotta be on some other stuff too. His voice is an octave lower now than it was during his many, many, many previous interviews. He was on Lex Fridman the other day. Pretty interesting stuff.

[call_me_ishmael]

Why is TFC down so much from 2019? Long way to go back up still. ~60% movement to get back to mid-50s where it was in 2019.

The 30K I bought in COIN about 18 months ago turned into like ~120K awfully quick. Nice!

My current stock holdings remain:

FB, AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, SOFI, PLTR, PYPL, SQ, HOOD. Probably a couple small holdings too. I think AAPL is likely overvalued, NVDA too. NVDA likely has some more growth for a year or so, but then I expect it to come back to earth. Everything else is a major growth play for me and I feel very good about them all going way up as long as we don't go into recession. I am fairly convinced there isn't a recession imminent.

I am thinking about buying a large position of AMD. I have a long thesis on this if anyone is interested. But the tl;dr is the reason NVDA is dominant right now is two fold: A) AI is everywhere, and B) they're the only game in town in CUDA. Every major AI player is trying to break CUDA, and the second they do all the other chip makers will pop. AMD will be the main beneficiary IMO.

[Freak Out]

Nvidia is going to rake it in bro.

[call_me_ishmael]

I have made a lot on them but IDK about that long term. If the space grows by 10x then yes they all will grow because high tide lifts all boats but I don't see the monopoly lasting. Do you? FB, OpenAI, etc don't want to pay big bucks to Nvidia when they could build their own for 20% of the price, but alas, CUDA is the monopoly.

CUDA is the singular thing keeping Nvidia a monopoly in AI.

[MadtownPacker]

How come Partial makes all this moola but said he couldn’t spend on game tickets.

[call_me_ishmael]

Bitch boy I said I got you. I didn’t make moola when I was like 21 in college.

[MadtownPacker]

Lies! You janky spit swirler you couldn’t go to any games. What good is the $ when your boss (wife) won’t let you go.

I apologize if she is monitoring your online activity. I don’t want to get you in trouble for speaking up for yourself.

[call_me_ishmael]

SOFI up 20% today. I believe that it could 5x in 3-4 years. I think it's pretty undervalued still. I appreciate how conservative their leadership team is so they always exceed expectations.

[Bretsky]

good week to own Sqaure and Nvidia

Not sure I'd buy Nvidia here but wow great stock

[call_me_ishmael]

My current holdings that I'm excited about are:

NVDA - I bought in in like 2021 at a high price and got corrected on it, but now it exploded so I am up 1200% or something like that. I sold 30K of it the other day to lighten my holdings and take out my principle and then some. Gonna let the rest ride for a year then sell. I don't think they're a 10T business but maybe 4T.
PYPL - Undervalued, will eventually correct and return 2-3x
SQ - I get it from work and think it's undervalued, although the company is very poorly run. Getting better with Jack back in the big chair though. A lot of folks think a 120 price target in 2025 is doable. IDK about that but if that happens I will be a very happy person since my grant price is 66$ a share and I have held a good amount of it so far.
HOOD - Bought at 12.20, think it's going to hit ~20 this year maybe
SOFI - Could 4x in the next two years. Very undervalued relative to peers.
ETH - My stock guy on Twitter tells me ETH could 5x over the next year or two, ETFs are about to get approved
BTC - Same as above although lesser, ETFs just got approved and the race to replace gold is on
CLSK - The best of the bitcoit miners, should get outsized return relative to BTC
AMZN - Perpetually undervalued
AAPL - I made so much money on this over the years I simply can't sell it all, although I do believe they don't have a clear growth story right now. Likely will drop a bit.
PLTR - I dunno that theyre gonna grow much right now but I hold because they're a good American defense company so I support that.

Overall right now I am swinging for the fences right now. I think there is a lot of good businesses out there that are still very undervalued.

[Patler]

I first bought NVDA in 2016 and have owned it continuously since then, selling and buying at various times, but always owning some. I have been very fortunate to have played their swings very well, selling near highs and buying back near subsequent lows numerous times, doubling the growth of the dollars invested in the swings. I have been playing with "house money" since 2019. For an old, retired couple NVDA is an uncomfortably high % of our portfolio right now, so will have to sell some....but not yet!

My biggest regret with NVDA is having sold a fair amount of it in late 2021 and early 2022, but not buying back in during the current run. I missed the start of the run, and it got away from me.

[bobblehead]

I first bought NVDA in 2016 and have owned it continuously since then, selling and buying at various times, but always owning some. I have been very fortunate to have played their swings very well, selling near highs and buying back near subsequent lows numerous times, doubling the growth of the dollars invested in the swings. I have been playing with "house money" since 2019. For an old, retired couple NVDA is an uncomfortably high % of our portfolio right now, so will have to sell some....but not yet!

My biggest regret with NVDA is having sold a fair amount of it in late 2021 and early 2022, but not buying back in during the current run. I missed the start of the run, and it got away from me.

If you are investing well you should always lament buying too soon and selling too soon. If you aren't doing that you are lucky or making mistakes.

[call_me_ishmael]

I would think they're gonna continue to grow like crazy for a year or two since they have such a moat, but long term the chips will become a commodity. SOMEONE will crack CUDA. It _has_ to happen.

[Bretsky]

I WOULD LOVE to get some analysis/viewpoints of my stock holdings so I'm going to post all I own.

For a BIG of background, I had an old ROTH IRA with roughly 45G in in with Edward Jones. It was going good, but not great. I went through stages of trying to dip into some VERY high risk stocks, was got burned and that is partly why my returns haven't been great. But I also combined them with several stocks that have did very well. I did this about 2 years ago and currently the holdings are only valued at about 68G. I am wanting high growth; if I'd lose every penny in this I would still be OK. so keep in mind, diversification isn't my real focus here. Anway's here I gol
With most of these stocks I invested about an average of 2,000 with the exception of AMD where I invested 4G and CrowdStrike with 3500.Those both paid off. Here are the list

THE LIST is in order of the most current market value, to the least

AMD
NVDA
CRWD (THE SCARY PART IS, I timed all of these pretty well and the three together are nearly 50% of the total balance of the ROTH IRA, but I still love all three stocks)

PANW (Palo Alto Networks)
MSFT
AMZN
DFKN (DraftKings)
GOOG
QCOM
FORD
DDOG (Datadog)
AAPL
PYPL


SO ROAST ME and/or GIVE ME SOME STRONG VIEWS on possible additions/subtractions at today's prices...etc

[Bretsky]

STOCKS ON MY WATCHLIST that I WOULD CONSIDER

TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor)
SOUN (really curious what others think of this one/Partial, surprises you are not all over this one already)
PATH
UBER
MSTR (Microstrategy)
SMCI (SUperMicroComputer)
CLSK (Partial, think this is a buy "NOW" ?



WOULD LOVE VIEWS ON THESE EITHER WAY TOO