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  1. #1
    Anti Homer Rat HOFer Bretsky's Avatar
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    LIFE IS ABOUT CHAMPIONSHIPS; I JUST REALIZED THIS. The MILWAUKEE BUCKS have won the same number of championships over the past 50 years as the Green Bay Packers. Ten years from now, who will have more championships, and who will be the fart in the wind ?

  2. #2
    Roadkill Rat HOFer mraynrand's Avatar
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    SodaStream (SODA) rebounded Thursday on speculation PepsiCo (PEP) could reach a deal with the in-home soft drink maker after Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) stunned the industry late Wednesday by announcing a deal with Coca-Cola (KO) to develop a cold beverage machine. Deutsche Bank's Bill Schmitz believes there is a "small possibility" PepsiCo will form a similar partnership with SodaStream. He kept his hold rating and $53 price target on the stock.

    Symbol: GMCR

    Trailing PE 33; Forward PE: 24

    PEG: 1.17

    Dividend: 1.20%

    Estimate Trend: UP

    Ransom Note Trendline: Buy Green Mountain Coffee
    "Never, never ever support a punk like mraynrand. Rather be as I am and feel real sympathy for his sickness." - Woodbuck

  3. #3
    Tom Demark sell sequential achieved in AAPL today. Not the best indicator, though, imo.

  4. #4
    Kinda forgot about it as I only have 8 shares but Peter told me to buy TSLA right around 120 after a pullback from 160. I did. Now it's at 200. Bam! I'm telling ya, this guy is the best on the internet.

  5. #5
    Anti Homer Rat HOFer Bretsky's Avatar
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    I think we should pick a date to start and list the prices of Apple as compared to a few of my faves in the high growth tech dept....say....YELP, WDAY, FB, and AAPL ?

    Logistically AAPL is WAY cheaper than these.....but it'd still be fun to track months down the road.
    LIFE IS ABOUT CHAMPIONSHIPS; I JUST REALIZED THIS. The MILWAUKEE BUCKS have won the same number of championships over the past 50 years as the Green Bay Packers. Ten years from now, who will have more championships, and who will be the fart in the wind ?

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Bretsky View Post
    I think we should pick a date to start and list the prices of Apple as compared to a few of my faves in the high growth tech dept....say....YELP, WDAY, FB, and AAPL ?

    Logistically AAPL is WAY cheaper than these.....but it'd still be fun to track months down the road.
    You could pick any number of high growth stocks and do better maybe. That's not what it's about. When it doubles a year or so from now, I will be more than happy with my 2x returns and next to no risk. Think of me as a Warren Buffett type. I don't gamble, I take calculated risks.

    Yours is a crap shoot. Those companies are not fundamentally sound. Most are houses of cards, if you will. While I think fundamentals mean jack shit on the 6 month timeline, they matter a lot of the 1-2 year timeline.

    The fact that Google is valued at more than AAPL now is just crazy. Look at cash flow. Google will be worth more in 10 years but they aren't even close to in the same ball park today.

    My gut feeling is this: Apple is aggressively buying back shares right now way ahead of schedule because they know the price is going to go up - way up.

    My big bold prediction is this: IF they win the glucose-through-skin race (it's a crap shoot at this point, but I guarantee they are paying more money to get it then just about anybody) AND they are still valued at a chump change PE (say... 6-9), they will start the process of taking the company private in 2-3 years. That's right. The world's richest company is so rich they will be able to begin the process of buying themselves shortly. Obviously they won't have 450B in cash but they will have 250-300B.

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    Fact Rat HOFer Patler's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by call_me_ishmael View Post
    You could pick any number of high growth stocks and do better maybe. That's not what it's about. When it doubles a year or so from now, I will be more than happy with my 2x returns and next to no risk. Think of me as a Warren Buffett type. I don't gamble, I take calculated risks.
    Huh??? Now you proclaim to be a value investor? Earlier in this thread you proclaimed to be a follower of a chart pattern trader. You also told us you are a frequent user of stops. Others of your posts seem to imply you are a momentum trader. Not much consistency in the way you describe yourself. That's OK, if you realize that you are simply feeling your way through investment philosophy education, looking for your own comfort zone. On the other hand, if you are simply bouncing from one hot hand to another hot hand, and justifying your reasons for low performance retrospectively, you could be following a dangerous path.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Patler View Post
    Huh??? Now you proclaim to be a value investor? Earlier in this thread you proclaimed to be a follower of a chart pattern trader. You also told us you are a frequent user of stops. Others of your posts seem to imply you are a momentum trader. Not much consistency in the way you describe yourself. That's OK, if you realize that you are simply feeling your way through investment philosophy education, looking for your own comfort zone. On the other hand, if you are simply bouncing from one hot hand to another hot hand, and justifying your reasons for low performance retrospectively, you could be following a dangerous path.
    Technical + fundamentals. Technicals short term, fundamentals long term. Don't bother with stocks that are not fundamentally sound. I only invest in stuff I follow extremely closely outside of the crazy idea to buy TSLA, where I did okay on my few shares.

  9. #9
    Creepy Rat HOFer SkinBasket's Avatar
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    I got $50 from a liquidated company burning a hole in my account. Any suggestions on a dangerous sub $2.00 position?

    Also, I've ridden MGM from $10 to $26. Should I stay on or jump off the boat?

    Looks like a picked the wrong supplier of outdated communications equipment. NSATF is languishing, although they just secured a MASSIVE $1.5 million (Canadian) deal. I'm sure that'll send it through the roof any time now.
    "You're all very smart, and I'm very dumb." - Partial

  10. #10
    Anti Homer Rat HOFer Bretsky's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkinBasket View Post
    I got $50 from a liquidated company burning a hole in my account. Any suggestions on a dangerous sub $2.00 position?

    Also, I've ridden MGM from $10 to $26. Should I stay on or jump off the boat?

    Looks like a picked the wrong supplier of outdated communications equipment. NSATF is languishing, although they just secured a MASSIVE $1.5 million (Canadian) deal. I'm sure that'll send it through the roof any time now.


    MGM...they've beat earnigns expectations the last four quarters and crushed them in December. If you find a new fun stock you like take half off the table and then what you have left in the stock is house money I'd probably run some more with MGM though. For what it's worth analysts expectations have improved the past six months and the growth looks impressive. In general...as long as a company keeps kicking the expectations ass I roll with it.
    LIFE IS ABOUT CHAMPIONSHIPS; I JUST REALIZED THIS. The MILWAUKEE BUCKS have won the same number of championships over the past 50 years as the Green Bay Packers. Ten years from now, who will have more championships, and who will be the fart in the wind ?

  11. #11
    Creepy Rat HOFer SkinBasket's Avatar
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    I'm considering dumping my $50 into SFBE and hoping they pick up a friend in government.
    "You're all very smart, and I'm very dumb." - Partial

  12. #12
    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2014/02/...A+Apple+2.0%29

    AAPL is the favorite stock of billionaires apparently.

  13. #13
    A fundamental difference Bretsky is you are playing with money you are okay with losing. I am not. I will walk away with 150K when AAPL hits 1000. Maybe more if I can convince my wife.

    Age plays a big factor. Every penny I earn right now is critically important. When I'm in my 40s, I hope it is less important because I will be more financially stable and comfortable.

  14. #14
    Anti Homer Rat HOFer Bretsky's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by call_me_ishmael View Post
    A fundamental difference Bretsky is you are playing with money you are okay with losing. I am not. I will walk away with 150K when AAPL hits 1000. Maybe more if I can convince my wife.

    Age plays a big factor. Every penny I earn right now is critically important. When I'm in my 40s, I hope it is less important because I will be more financially stable and comfortable.

    You are completely right here Partial
    In a sense my investments in stocks are my fun money
    I'm in mid 40's and am heavily vested in 401K's...etc....and am aggressively paying mtg off

    So I'm not looking for the low risk stock that doubles in 2-3 Years

    While I have a few stocks that are more established such as Yahoo and Applied Materials, the rest of my positions are high risk, high reward stocks that I'm hoping can be ten baggers someday.

    The hyper growth stocks I own are YELP, ZU (Zulily), ECOM (ChanelAdvisor.com), and UA (Under Armour)

    I also own WWAV (Whitewave Foods) and LOCK (Lifelock)
    and to be completely honest I'm not sure what category I'd put them in but they are both in early stages as a company


    ON A SIDENOTE.........another company I've really wanted to get a position in has been the cloud HR stock Workday (WDAY)

    I have a terrible feeling they are going to blow away earnings expectations tomorrow and take off from about 98 to 120. We'll see. My two big regrets in the past year have been not jumping in Facebook and Zillow.
    LIFE IS ABOUT CHAMPIONSHIPS; I JUST REALIZED THIS. The MILWAUKEE BUCKS have won the same number of championships over the past 50 years as the Green Bay Packers. Ten years from now, who will have more championships, and who will be the fart in the wind ?

  15. #15
    Fact Rat HOFer Patler's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bretsky View Post
    So I'm not looking for the low risk stock that doubles in 2-3 Years
    Low risk that will double in 2-3 years? Not asking for much, huh Bretsky?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bretsky View Post
    While I have a few stocks that are more established such as Yahoo and Applied Materials, the rest of my positions are high risk, high reward stocks that I'm hoping can be ten baggers someday.

    The hyper growth stocks I own are YELP, ZU (Zulily), ECOM (ChanelAdvisor.com), and UA (Under Armour)

    I also own WWAV (Whitewave Foods) and LOCK (Lifelock)
    and to be completely honest I'm not sure what category I'd put them in but they are both in early stages as a company


    ON A SIDENOTE.........another company I've really wanted to get a position in has been the cloud HR stock Workday (WDAY)

    I have a terrible feeling they are going to blow away earnings expectations tomorrow and take off from about 98 to 120. We'll see. My two big regrets in the past year have been not jumping in Facebook and Zillow.
    I bought FB in October at $48+. The big question now is, should I take some profits out, expecting the price to pull back at some point allowing me to buy back in?

    I bought Zillow in September at $87+. It has been a lot to a little lower ever since. I have to be patient with it. Seems like a business that could be wildly successful in the years ahead.

    My biggest regret the last couple years? Not leaving some of my investment ride in stocks that I made nice quick gains in. For example, GOOG bounced around above and below $600 for a while. I bought it and sold it a couple times as soon as it reversed directions, making about 10% in just a few weeks each time. The last time I sold it was the summer/fall of 2012 after buying it around $580 and seeing it go quickly to $750, then turn lower. I made a very nice quick gain, but never bought back in again because it never fell below $600. I should have only sold 50% each time and left the rest ride. That would have allowed me to take out some profit several times, yet still leave some in for the long haul. At $1220 now, I would have more than doubled.

    Even worse, I also did the same with YELP two years ago. Again, I made quick 10%-20% gains a couple times, but sold completely in September 2012 at $25. I felt pretty smart when it dropped to $17 just a couple months later, but not so smart now as it pushes toward $100.

    My last regret was AAPL at $400 last spring/summer. That seemed like a no brainer, but I didn't have cash available at the time. I thought about selling one of my smaller mutual funds that has been a laggard and making a strong investment in AAPL.

  16. #16
    Anti Homer Rat HOFer Bretsky's Avatar
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    OK....well maybe low risk that doubles in 2-3 years was a bad way to put it

    I would run with Facebook; it's always good to take some profits but I think they'll hit 100 before they hit 55. Just my view. Come on Man...jump back into da YELP

    Zillow is a very sore one for me; I'm in the dam industry and think it's a great company. I was watching it and nearly pulled the trigger in the high 20's but pussied out. Since then I've just watched it run. I'm too demoralized in the stock to get in anymore.

    I've read about Workday's earnings. To me it was a great report but I'll be curious how the market reacts to the report
    LIFE IS ABOUT CHAMPIONSHIPS; I JUST REALIZED THIS. The MILWAUKEE BUCKS have won the same number of championships over the past 50 years as the Green Bay Packers. Ten years from now, who will have more championships, and who will be the fart in the wind ?

  17. #17
    Fact Rat HOFer Patler's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bretsky View Post
    OK....well maybe low risk that doubles in 2-3 years was a bad way to put it

    I would run with Facebook; it's always good to take some profits but I think they'll hit 100 before they hit 55. Just my view. Come on Man...jump back into da YELP

    Zillow is a very sore one for me; I'm in the dam industry and think it's a great company. I was watching it and nearly pulled the trigger in the high 20's but pussied out. Since then I've just watched it run. I'm too demoralized in the stock to get in anymore.

    I've read about Workday's earnings. To me it was a great report but I'll be curious how the market reacts to the report
    Yelp is my sore point. After it started to take off, I "almost" bought back in several times, but always figured if I waited I could get a better price. Of course, that is a sign of a poor investor. If it's a good company for a long term investment, a few % points in stock price don't matter a great deal. It is impossible to buy the absolute low and sell the absolute high with any regularity. A little market timing is good, but sometimes I rely too much.

    I knew nothing about WDAY until you brought it up. It's been on a holy terror the last 6-8 mos, and has a great opening today (>10% up). Yet, an awful lot of advisors seem very down on it, with sell recommendations not even hold.

  18. #18
    Anti Homer Rat HOFer Bretsky's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patler View Post
    Yelp is my sore point. After it started to take off, I "almost" bought back in several times, but always figured if I waited I could get a better price. Of course, that is a sign of a poor investor. If it's a good company for a long term investment, a few % points in stock price don't matter a great deal. It is impossible to buy the absolute low and sell the absolute high with any regularity. A little market timing is good, but sometimes I rely too much.

    I knew nothing about WDAY until you brought it up. It's been on a holy terror the last 6-8 mos, and has a great opening today (>10% up). Yet, an awful lot of advisors seem very down on it, with sell recommendations not even hold.

    DAMMIT.......I can honestly say if I had cjhing to spare I'd have taken a small position in WDAY about 20% ago but I went with YELP, which to me was a bit more safe. WDAY is up 14 points today. Better then expected growth and less than expected loss. But you have to really buy into the story long term since that is what you are investing in...as opposed to the valuations...which are insane.

    Patler.....I'm on the Manhunt to find the next big things. On Mad Money about six months ago I watched highlights and many CEO interviews at the big Dreamforce Technology Conference in California. That is when I began my research on YELP, WDAY, ECOM, and even shortly after ZU.

    All of these are hyper growth stories. I'm forever in search of the next Salesforce that appreciated 1,000%. I fully understand I could loss my ass with this money.........but I'm intrigued by finding the youthful hyper growth stories and in doing so I'm always curious about new IPO's coming out as well.

    To me there are all good companies; if I diversify and just hit one or two big and the rest fail it will still be worth it. I might fail with them all...............and in the end........be left with just the Clothing Technology store...............UNDER ARMOUR
    LIFE IS ABOUT CHAMPIONSHIPS; I JUST REALIZED THIS. The MILWAUKEE BUCKS have won the same number of championships over the past 50 years as the Green Bay Packers. Ten years from now, who will have more championships, and who will be the fart in the wind ?

  19. #19
    Creepy Rat HOFer SkinBasket's Avatar
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    Thanks for the advice Bretsky. I don't read any of that complicated stuff. I just look at the line graphs. Only failed me once so far, but that company isn't dead... yet.
    "You're all very smart, and I'm very dumb." - Partial

  20. #20
    Anti Homer Rat HOFer Bretsky's Avatar
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    LIFE IS ABOUT CHAMPIONSHIPS; I JUST REALIZED THIS. The MILWAUKEE BUCKS have won the same number of championships over the past 50 years as the Green Bay Packers. Ten years from now, who will have more championships, and who will be the fart in the wind ?

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