Finley getting 57th opinion on his neck today

[woodbuck27]

Finley CAN do those things, but too often does not. He does not do them standing on the sidelines with yet another injury. It seemed to me that defenses were becoming less and less concerned about him as his problems with drops continued from one season to the next. He is an inconsistent blocker on top of the injury and drop issues. He is a veteran player going into his 7th season. Basically, he is a player that can not be relied on because of injuries, drops and inconsistent effort and technique in blocking. I don't expect any of that to change, but he still will do things to get people excited from time to time.

He is the Jeff George of tight ends. A guy who has ability to be much better than his actual performances for many reason, including injuries. Every time Jeff George was available, the press and fans went crazy, and every where he went, his actual performance failed to live up to their hopes and expectations.

Finley will continue to suffer from injuries. He will continue having issues with drops. He will continue to be an inconsistent blocker. The trick is determining what value he has apart from those things.

Keeping him in GB would, however, be quite interesting if he can be paired with a healthy and experienced Quarless, a focused Lyerla and an up and coming reliable Rodgers. It would allow Finley to focus on what he does best, while still presenting reasonable options in the passing game with the other TEs. In view of Finley's history, I juts don't want to see them risk a lot of cap dollars with Finley

Jermichael Finley wants to be "somewhere" AND "$$$$ in there $$$$".

[mraynrand]

Finley CAN do those things, but too often does not. He does not do them standing on the sidelines with yet another injury.

Injury Prone!

[Patler]

Injury Prone!

Finley is prone to many things, injuries being just one of them.

[pbmax]

Sometimes, he is just flat out prone.

[pbmax]

Nothing Has Changed

Blake Baratz ‏@blakebaratz 16m
Easier 2 answer every1 at once: @JermichaelF88 is making tremendous strides, is in the best shape of his life, & this is a process.#Patience

[HarveyWallbangers]

I'm not buying that. He draws little linebacker coverage, but even when its the 3/4 CB or a safety, its single coverage. No one rolls coverage to him. Captain crossing route hasn't made that kind of dent in a while. Not since the knee injury.

Changing how defenses cover us doesn't just mean he was getting double covered. Defenses having to put a safety on him changes how defenses cover us. It opens things up for other guys. Come on now. People act like the guy is average. I trust Ted Thompson thinks this guy makes more of a difference than some on here think or he wouldn't have given him all that money. The guy is a good player, and he'll be missed. Can we overcome the loss of him? Of course, outside of Rodgers, we can overcome the loss of any one player.

McCarthy reiterated his admiration for the matchup problems Finley poses for opponents. "When you look at Jermichael," McCarthy said, "and you go on the other side of the ball or you talk to any of the defensive guys that played against him, he's a matchup challenge for defenses. I think his best routes are when we're attacking the middle of the field with him. I think he's unique that way. Big target, excellent in the red zone."

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ext...-means-packers

The formation flexibility that Finley brought had the double reward of making the Packers unpredictable and the defense extra predictable. Often the way a defense responded to Finley’s alignment before the snap revealed whether the coverage was man or zone. And those coverages tended to be more basic because defensive coordinators were worried about whichever one of their linebackers, safeties or backup corners was caught on the wrong end of a mismatch.

[Brandon494]

What's the eye roll for? It wasn't a criticism of him, just a comment on the way his career has evolved, influenced more by injuries than anything.

At some point, and I would suggest with six seasons in the bank the point has come, it should be realized that is career trajectory is set. Can he possible still have a big year? Sure. But something will likely always get in the way of a truly fantastic season. First it was immaturity, then leg injuries, followed by a knee injury and surgery. Then, a concussion followed by the neck injury and another surgery. Drops have made him unreliable for long stretches, even when he was otherwise healthy.

He's never had an 800 yard season. He has had 3 games of 100 yards or more, the last in 2010. He has had four games of 80-100 yards, the last in 2011.

He seems to get press based on potential, because injuries and some of his own failings (drops) have suppressed his actual performance. But press based on potential for a skill position player entering his 7th season seems misplaced, in my opinion.

That said, I would like to see him back in GB, but not if it takes a big contract to get him there. I think that would be wasted money.

You were trying to downgrade him with that comment knowing he hasn't played a full 6 seasons and knowing how Rodgers likes to spread the ball around. Finley is still a top 8 TE in the league when healthy and the defense still has to account for him on the field. Now I've gone on the record and stated we should move on from Finley but to complain about him getting too much press about 2-3 short articles deserves an

[Brandon494]

Changing how defenses cover us doesn't just mean he was getting double covered. Defenses having to put a safety on him changes how defenses cover us. It opens things up for other guys. Come on now. People act like the guy is average. I trust Ted Thompson thinks this guy makes more of a difference than some on here think or he wouldn't have given him all that money. The guy is a good player, and he'll be missed. Can we overcome the loss of him? Of course, outside of Rodgers, we can overcome the loss of any one player.

OFT

[pbmax]

Changing how defenses cover us doesn't just mean he was getting double covered. Defenses having to put a safety on him changes how defenses cover us. It opens things up for other guys. Come on now. People act like the guy is average. I trust Ted Thompson thinks this guy makes more of a difference than some on here think or he wouldn't have given him all that money. The guy is a good player, and he'll be missed. Can we overcome the loss of him? Of course, outside of Rodgers, we can overcome the loss of any one player.



http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ext...-means-packers

Think about what you are suggesting. He is such a threat that a Defense responds to him like he is a 3rd or 4th WR. Disinclined to cover him with a LB. But no rolled over safety or double team. That is praise of his athletic gifts and height, but its not an alteration of coverage. It means he faces nickel and dime more often. Which makes him more of a benefit to the run game than the pass in matchup terms.

He is athletic enough to present a matchup problem to whoever has him singled in coverage, which is what I take McCarthy's statement to mean. But he is not enough of a threat to alter the scheme. If the Packers are satisfied to see more nickel and dime (which helps the run game) that is fine. But its faint praise of a TE. Tyrone Davis used to draw that coverage.

On the negative side of the ledger, he doesn't block well enough to be of much use in line, which would be a primary way he could take advantage of the D's answer to his matchup problem. He doesn't beat zone coverage enough to alleviate the team problem with Cover 2 man because he is ineffective in the deep middle.

He is only a threat if he can catch something short and break a long run.

My issue with him is that he is a shell of his former self. He might still be more of a threat than any other TE on the roster, which is more a condemnation of the roster than a commendation of Finley.

[Brandon494]

He is only a threat if he can catch something short and break a long run.

My issue with him is that he is a shell of his former self. He might still be more of a threat than any other TE on the roster, which is more a condemnation of the roster than a commendation of Finley.

[pbmax]

Well, you have succeeded in showing 2 of his three touchdowns and 3 of his 25 catches.

But where are the coverage changes? Each of those throws was within 5 yards of the LOS. If he was playing for Chip Kelly, they might design an offense for him on these routes. Or if he played for Kyle Shanahan, that would be the offense.

The Browns TD has a LB on him (in zone I think). The CB is with Boykin and a fake of a slant by Boykin keeps the safety deep. So in that video, Finley is an outlet receiver who benefits from D coordinators fear of Boykin. Now that is a game changer.

But he isn't helping altering the coverage as an outlet receiver. In fact, contrary to McCarthy's assertion, I bet each of the D coordinators would be happy to give up a reception to Rodgers and Co at that distance multiple times a game.

I think the whole Finley/Rodgers thing was over these routes. He didn't want to head deep into the teeth of cover 2 and wanted something short he could break. Its works for him here. I am not sure it works for the offense as a whole.

[mraynrand]

Sometimes, he is just flat out prone.

Jordy or James would have caught they ball! They NEVER dropped a pass.

Actually, Scott Wells never dropped a pass. BRING BLACK WELLS!!!

[HarveyWallbangers]

Think about what you are suggesting.

People more important than me (e.g. Mike McCarthy) are suggesting what I wrote. Like McCarthy said last year, nobody on the roster can replace what Finley gives them. There aren't that many guys around the league that can. Maybe 10 or so. It's why Thompson paid him $8M/year, and it's why Finley would have a lot of suitors if he was cleared to play.

You can cover average TEs with LBs. Guys like Finley exploit that. That alters coverage. Teams now have to move a safety over that player or tilt coverage towards that TE. That leaves better matchups for the likes of Nelson and Cobb (and Jennings, Driver, and Jones before that).

[Patler]

You were trying to downgrade him with that comment knowing he hasn't played a full 6 seasons and knowing how Rodgers likes to spread the ball around. Finley is still a top 8 TE in the league when healthy and the defense still has to account for him on the field. Now I've gone on the record and stated we should move on from Finley but to complain about him getting too much press about 2-3 short articles deserves an

Finley has played 6 seasons. Finley has played 70 games. No matter how you want to cut it, the result is the same. In six seasons he has achieved certain things.

I have reiterated over and over that his career has been altered by injuries. But no matter how you look at it, he is now entering his seventh season, the downside of a typical career. His career production is what it is, injuries or not. Part of an athletes impact for his team is his availability. A player has no impact standing on the sidelines. In judging any player's career, we can lament the fact that injuries were an overriding factor, but that does not change what his real impact was.

As pbmax pointed out, the Finley of 2011 - 2013 was nothing like the Finley we saw at the end of 2009 and the start of 2010. I think 2013 was a pivotal year for him. Defenses seemed to realize he was not the threat he looked like he might become. Sure, he had an impressive play from time to time; but he had as many excruciating drops. He was not reliable, and it was clear at times that Rodgers did not always have faith in him in crucial situations. In short, I don't think he impacted what defenses would do all that much anymore.

Yet, in March everything was a "twitter" for a few days about him signing with the Seahawks. In April, it was the Dolphins. Just a week ago it was the Vikings. Now the Packers. In each location fans become active, and sportswriters wrote as if it was important. If the past teaches us anything, it is that his impact will be muted, albeit with splashes of excitement.

[pbmax]

People more important than me (e.g. Mike McCarthy) are suggesting what I wrote. Like McCarthy said last year, nobody on the roster can replace what Finley gives them. There aren't that many guys around the league that can. Maybe 10 or so. It's why Thompson paid him $8M/year, and it's why Finley would have a lot of suitors if he was cleared to play.

You can cover average TEs with LBs. Guys like Finley exploit that. That alters coverage. Teams now have to move a safety over that player or tilt coverage towards that TE. That leaves better matchups for the likes of Nelson and Cobb (and Jennings, Driver, and Jones before that).

McCarthy has also said he doesn't pay attention to carries but YPC, also that sometimes just getting carries makes a difference more than YPC indicates, and that Allen Barbre looked great at tackle so your mileage may vary.

But in this specific case, I do not think he said what you said. McCarthy said he was a matchup problem. You said he changes how teams cover us. I say that he dictates less LB coverage and more DB coverage, which means more nickel and dime but no coverage changes. I have yet to see anyone roll coverage to or over him. And that the routes he is running don't help the other receivers like a deep middle threat would.

Finley is not pulling a safety from the middle of the field and leaving teams in Cover 1. Finley has played many games during the great Cover 2 Man crisis and hasn't yet broken teams of playing it. He does not make that difference anymore.

Like everything else with him, he should be doing it, but he isn't. And I was a true believer. Thought he would mature (and I think he has). Thought the drops would sort themselves out (he was better with it at the end of 2012 and most of 2013). Injury is tough because no one can tough out an ACL quickly.

But after that injury and even the year after the year of rehab, he no longer plays the same game.

[pbmax]

Serious question:

Brandon claimed Finley is a Top 8 TE when healthy. Harv thinks average TEs can be covered by a LB.

Where does Finley rank overall? Here are the Top 40 for the last two years according to Pro Football References' Approximate Value. This says nothing about their speed or athleticism, but focuses on their numbers compared to others in the League. Are there eight better than Jermichael? Are there 14 who don't see much linebacker coverage?

EDIT: I changed the filter to last 2 years and still active at TE. The first list, for 5 years, had a lot of old players on it and most of the good young TEs were at the bottom, at or below 40.

Here is the link if you think a different sample would be better: http://www.pro-football-reference.co...=Y#stats::none

                                                    Game  Game Misc Misc Misc Misc
Rk                  Player From   To Draft  Tm  Lg     G    GS  Yrs   PB  AP1   AV
1            Alfred Morris 2012 2013 6-173 WAS NFL    32    32    2    1    0   20
2             Jimmy Graham 2012 2013  3-95 NOR NFL    31    20    2    1    1   19
3            Tony Gonzalez 2012 2013  1-13 ATL NFL    32    32    2    2    1   17
4             Jason Witten 2012 2013  3-69 DAL NFL    32    32    2    2    0   16
5           William Beatty 2012 2013  2-60 NYG NFL    32    31    2    0    0   15
6               Greg Olsen 2012 2013  1-31 CAR NFL    32    32    2    0    0   15
7        Martellus Bennett 2012 2013  2-61 TOT NFL    32    31    2    0    0   14
8             Vernon Davis 2012 2013   1-6 SFO NFL    31    31    2    1    0   14
9              Riley Reiff 2012 2013  1-23 DET NFL    32    24    2    0    0   14
10          Rob Gronkowski 2012 2013  2-42 NWE NFL    18    17    2    1    0   13
11            Donnie Avery 2012 2013  2-33 TOT NFL    32    29    2    0    0   12
12           Charles Brown 2012 2013  2-64 NOR NFL    26    17    2    0    0   12
13           Antonio Gates 2012 2013       SDG NFL    31    30    2    0    0   12
14            Heath Miller 2012 2013  1-30 PIT NFL    29    29    2    1    0   12
15        Jermaine Gresham 2012 2013  1-21 CIN NFL    30    29    2    1    0   11
16          Scott Chandler 2012 2013 4-129 BUF NFL    31    20    2    0    0   10
17              Jared Cook 2012 2013  3-89 TOT NFL    29    18    2    0    0   10
18          Kelvin Beachum 2012 2013 7-248 PIT NFL    22    17    2    0    0    9
19             Brent Celek 2012 2013 5-162 PHI NFL    31    29    2    0    0    9
20       Jermichael Finley 2012 2013  3-91 GNB NFL    22    19    2    0    0    9
                                                   Games Games Misc Misc Misc Misc
Rk                  Player From   To Draft  Tm  Lg     G    GS  Yrs   PB  AP1   AV
21             Zach Miller 2012 2013  2-38 SEA NFL    30    27    2    0    0    9
22           Brandon Myers 2012 2013 6-202 TOT NFL    32    30    2    0    0    9
23              Mike Adams 2012 2013  2-56 PIT NFL    25    16    2    0    0    8
24             Jason Avant 2012 2013 4-109 PHI NFL    30    20    2    0    0    8
25          Jordan Cameron 2012 2013 4-102 CLE NFL    29    20    2    1    0    8
26             Gabe Carimi 2012 2013  1-29 TOT NFL    30    17    2    0    0    8
27            Charles Clay 2012 2013 6-174 MIA NFL    30    24    2    0    0    8
28            Coby Fleener 2012 2013  2-34 CLT NFL    28    22    2    0    0    8
29            Kyle Rudolph 2012 2013  2-43 MIN NFL    24    24    2    1    0    8
30           Julius Thomas 2012 2013 4-129 DEN NFL    18    14    2    1    0    8
31          Delanie Walker 2012 2013 6-175 TOT NFL    31    15    2    0    0    8
32            Owen Daniels 2012 2013  4-98 HTX NFL    20    19    2    1    0    7
33         Jeff Linkenbach 2012 2013       CLT NFL    28    13    2    0    0    7
34       Brandon Pettigrew 2012 2013  1-20 DET NFL    28    25    2    0    0    7
35            Dennis Pitta 2012 2013 4-114 RAV NFL    20     6    2    0    0    7
36       Donald Stephenson 2012 2013  3-74 KAN NFL    32    14    2    0    0    7
37             Jacob Tamme 2012 2013 4-127 DEN NFL    32     9    2    0    0    7
38       Terrance Williams 2013 2013  3-74 DAL NFL    16     8    1    0    0    7
39            Dallas Clark 2012 2013  1-24 TOT NFL    28     7    2    0    0    6
40             Rob Housler 2012 2013       CRD NFL    28    19    2    0    0    6

[mraynrand]

I think 2013 was a pivotal year for him. Defenses seemed to realize he was not the threat he looked like he might become. Sure, he had an impressive play from time to time; but he had as many excruciating drops.

He had only one impressive play?

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/

[Brandon494]

Well, you have succeeded in showing 2 of his three touchdowns and 3 of his 25 catches.

But where are the coverage changes? Each of those throws was within 5 yards of the LOS. If he was playing for Chip Kelly, they might design an offense for him on these routes. Or if he played for Kyle Shanahan, that would be the offense.

The Browns TD has a LB on him (in zone I think). The CB is with Boykin and a fake of a slant by Boykin keeps the safety deep. So in that video, Finley is an outlet receiver who benefits from D coordinators fear of Boykin. Now that is a game changer.

But he isn't helping altering the coverage as an outlet receiver. In fact, contrary to McCarthy's assertion, I bet each of the D coordinators would be happy to give up a reception to Rodgers and Co at that distance multiple times a game.

I think the whole Finley/Rodgers thing was over these routes. He didn't want to head deep into the teeth of cover 2 and wanted something short he could break. Its works for him here. I am not sure it works for the offense as a whole.

Did you not see what I highlighted in bold? You said he was a shell of himself which is not true.

[mraynrand]

PBmax: that ranking seems to be right on the money. I'd probably take Fin over Celek and Olsen, but maybe not Miller. Miller too suffered from unavailability.

[mraynrand]

Did you not see what I highlighted in bold? You said he was a shell of himself which is not true.

He might be NOW, but he sure as hell wasn't against Cleveland, right up to the injury.