Will Cobb earn the big contract many are expecting?

[pbmax]

For guys going into their final contract years and on the cusp of being pro-bowl types, I think the best chance to sign them perhaps at a bargain is before the season starts, or very early in the season. The risks change the second half of the season.

That said, if I'm Cobb and the Packers offer $9M/year for 3 years at any time during the season, I think I would sign it. $7M/year for three years, if it has a decent guarantee, I might sign now, but not in November if I am putting together a big season.

Exactly. When you sign them early, you take away risk from them and replace it not only with more compensation, but some form of guarantee.

The longer that contract plays out, the less risk the player faces. Unless he has a catastrophic year or an injury, his price will not go down as the season progresses.

But I have no feel for how much he will get. I underestimated Nelson's attractiveness to the Packers and slot guys are now more in demand than ever. But right now, he would need to climb another step for me to predict he will clear $9 mil per year.