Will Cobb earn the big contract many are expecting?

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

All depends on Cobb, but he seems to be level headed and sensible from the few times he's answered questions about his contract. For a soon to be 24 year old kid it would be hard to turn down 7 million dollars/year when you still haven't put together a 1,000 yard season and have an injury history. Fair for him and fair for the packers (based off his potential). I think only being a 3 year extension is a positive not a negative. A few more productive seasons in 2015 and 2016 and its right back to the negotiating table with only one year left on his deal.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Another factor not being discussed is Arron Rodgers. This is big leverage for the packers. If I was in Cobbs position I would take 1 or 2 million less/year to stay in GB and play with Rodgers in the prime of his career. I would consider it a long term investment as Rodgers will make me look better and will line me up for another big pay day at only 27 years old.

[RashanGary]

All depends on Cobb, but he seems to be level headed and sensible from the few times he's answered questions about his contract. For a soon to be 24 year old kid it would be hard to turn down 7 million dollars/year when you still haven't put together a 1,000 yard season and have an injury history. Fair for him and fair for the packers (based off his potential). I think only being a 3 year extension is a positive not a negative. A few more productive seasons in 2015 and 2016 and its right back to the negotiating table with only one year left on his deal.

It does depend on Cobb. Watching the 2010 tape, with Jennings in his prime, that little seam route that was so dominant that year..... Cobb hasnt been as good as Jennings was. If his head is right, a three year deal makes sense. Jennings contract stubbornness blowing up in his face really helped the packers in negotiations and i think that carries over into this one too. I think he'll stay, 3 years, makes sense.

[Patler]

All depends on Cobb, but he seems to be level headed and sensible from the few times he's answered questions about his contract. For a soon to be 24 year old kid it would be hard to turn down 7 million dollars/year when you still haven't put together a 1,000 yard season and have an injury history. Fair for him and fair for the packers (based off his potential). I think only being a 3 year extension is a positive not a negative. A few more productive seasons in 2015 and 2016 and its right back to the negotiating table with only one year left on his deal.

Or, a Finley-like injury could end it all. While I might be willing to sign the three year extension now, before the season starts, if I make it through the first 8 games or so putting together a big season, I think I would risk the next 8 against the next 40 to 56 games to sign the once-in-a-career big contract.

At some point in your career you have to go for the big one. If it is in sight with 8 games remaining, I would go for it.

[vince]

But to do that he has to play out his contract and risk a career-altering injury this year. Before the season starts I could see him getting something like a 3 year, $20 million extension with a pretty healthy signing bonus. At the end of the contract, he'd still only be 27 (he just turned 24), and be in line for one more big contract similar to what Jordy just got.

That sounds right to me too Joe. Seems like the ideal situation for everyone. Not too different from what Finley got (for 2 years I think his last deal was though) but I'd say Cobb's a better bet.

I wonder who's not on this path yet - Thompson or Cobb. I'm thinking Thompson at the moment... Cobb really hasn't earned that deal yet, but I think he's worth it and then some.

[pbmax]

I am always amazed at everyone's eagerness to turn down money for someone for "their own good".

If he can get $9 million per year and be substantially guaranteed to receive it, he would be foolish not to take it. It could backfire; he could have a problematic year like Jennings did. But it has to be a strong consideration because any deal or any route to a deal will entail risk on his part.

[red]

again with the talk of cobb being a big injury risk, or injury prone

is a-rod an injury risk? is jordy injury prone?

like i've said before, cobb has suffered one freak injury that would have injured anyone that got hit there. other then that he's missed 2 games in 2 years

jordy has missed 7 games in 6 years. does anyone think it was a risk to resign him?. a-rod missed half of last season, does he have to prove to the team he can stay healthy?

[Patler]

I am always amazed at everyone's eagerness to turn down money for someone for "their own good".

If he can get $9 million per year and be substantially guaranteed to receive it, he would be foolish not to take it. It could backfire; he could have a problematic year like Jennings did. But it has to be a strong consideration because any deal or any route to a deal will entail risk on his part.

For guys going into their final contract years and on the cusp of being pro-bowl types, I think the best chance to sign them perhaps at a bargain is before the season starts, or very early in the season. The risks change the second half of the season.

That said, if I'm Cobb and the Packers offer $9M/year for 3 years at any time during the season, I think I would sign it. $7M/year for three years, if it has a decent guarantee, I might sign now, but not in November if I am putting together a big season.

[pbmax]

For guys going into their final contract years and on the cusp of being pro-bowl types, I think the best chance to sign them perhaps at a bargain is before the season starts, or very early in the season. The risks change the second half of the season.

That said, if I'm Cobb and the Packers offer $9M/year for 3 years at any time during the season, I think I would sign it. $7M/year for three years, if it has a decent guarantee, I might sign now, but not in November if I am putting together a big season.

Exactly. When you sign them early, you take away risk from them and replace it not only with more compensation, but some form of guarantee.

The longer that contract plays out, the less risk the player faces. Unless he has a catastrophic year or an injury, his price will not go down as the season progresses.

But I have no feel for how much he will get. I underestimated Nelson's attractiveness to the Packers and slot guys are now more in demand than ever. But right now, he would need to climb another step for me to predict he will clear $9 mil per year.

[Patler]

again with the talk of cobb being a big injury risk, or injury prone

is a-rod an injury risk? is jordy injury prone?

like i've said before, cobb has suffered one freak injury that would have injured anyone that got hit there. other then that he's missed 2 games in 2 years

jordy has missed 7 games in 6 years. does anyone think it was a risk to resign him?. a-rod missed half of last season, does he have to prove to the team he can stay healthy?

Not that it is definitive, but Nelson looks like a guy who might miss a game or two here and there, and that is what he has been. He's bigger than most DBs. Cobb looks like a guy who can get broken in half. Except for his broken leg, he hasn't been that. Driver looked the same. So did Jennings. Hopefully, Cobb's career follows more like that of Drivers than Jennings.

No body expects a player to never be injured. If there is a warning sign for Cobb, it is that in three years he has missed at least a game every year, while playing less than full-time snaps. But, it's only three years, and a broken bone was the big one, and that can be a freak one.

If I am the Packers, I'm not all that worried about Cobbs' injuries. Anyone can break a bone. Anyone can tear up a knee, anyone can screw up his neck...at any time. Those are a team's biggest risks beyond a guy who is frail. If I am Cobb, my risk of a big injury that anyone can get is a factor in what $ I will sign for when, but that is the same for every player.

[Guiness]

Not that it is definitive, but Nelson looks like a guy who might miss a game or two here and there, and that is what he has been. He's bigger than most DBs. Cobb looks like a guy who can get broken in half. Except for his broken leg, he hasn't been that. Driver looked the same. So did Jennings. Hopefully, Cobb's career follows more like that of Drivers than Jennings.

No body expects a player to never be injured. If there is a warning sign for Cobb, it is that in three years he has missed at least a game every year, while playing less than full-time snaps. But, it's only three years, and a broken bone was the big one, and that can be a freak one.

If I am the Packers, I'm not all that worried about Cobbs' injuries. Anyone can break a bone. Anyone can tear up a knee, anyone can screw up his neck...at any time. Those are a team's biggest risks beyond a guy who is frail. If I am Cobb, my risk of a big injury that anyone can get is a factor in what $ I will sign for when, but that is the same for every player.

Remember Driver's scary injury, getting flipped over and landing straight down on his head? I remember thinking at the time it was possible he would never play again. Looking at his career statistics though, you can't even tell when that happened, the guy missed almost no time his entire career! He played 15 or 16 games 11 of 13 seasons (ignoring his rookie year). Took some looking, but it was week 1 vs the Vikings in 2003, and he missed only one game! Dude was made of rubber.

[gbgary]

cobb will get a great contract...period. one that reflects the market and his stats.

[Patler]

cobb will get a great contract...period. one that reflects the market and his stats.

But will he get a great contract from Green Bay? I'm not sure it makes good sense from a salary cap perspective to pay two WRs as much as Nelson. Sometimes, you have to accept giving up strength in one position to pay to keep it at another.

[gbgary]

But will he get a great contract from Green Bay? I'm not sure it makes good sense from a salary cap perspective to pay two WRs as much as Nelson. Sometimes, you have to accept giving up strength in one position to pay to keep it at another.

the Packers aren't even close to having cap issues so a great contract is no problem. he's worth it, Rodgers needs weapons, get it done when it's time. what other core player needs taken care of right now...or next year? if i remember right isn't the cap taking a big jump soon?

[red]

actually, its paying two top WR's that kind of money while you have a wealth of talent behind them on the depth chart, while also paying the guy who makes them all look good (a-rod) huge money, that quickly gets a team into cap hell

[Patler]

actually, its paying two top WR's that kind of money while you have a wealth of talent behind them on the depth chart, while also paying the guy who makes them all look good (a-rod) huge money, that quickly gets a team into cap hell

Exactly. Three years ago, some thought it would be a catastrophe if Jennings wasn't resigned. If they had paid Jennings two years ago when he reportedly turned down a sizable offer, would they have resigned Nelson this year? Signed Peppers? Had the money to think about signing Cobb? Could they have? Probably. Would they have? Probably not all of those things. Jennings is gone, but GB looks like they will be OK at WR anyway.

[gbgary]

"wealth of talent"? There isn't a guy behind Cobb that's half the player he is.

[3irty1]

I wouldn't mind shopping Cobb. For a guy like Cobb to get their yards he'd have to catch something on the order of 90 balls a year. He's certainly a nice weapon but something of a luxury for us while in another situation he could be a one man offense. With what the Vikings got for Harvin I'm curious what the offers would be for Cobb. Cobb isn't the elite athlete that Harvin is but has similar utility and is 10x the man.

[pbmax]

Two articles on Cobb and what the next contract might look like. Banks said it might be high enough that the Cobb deal could top Nelson's deal. His agent is Jimmy Sexton and Sexton usually gets good deals.

http://www.si.com/nfl/2014/11/20/ran...en-bay-packers

Demovsky says almost certainly Cobb won't get Nelson money and expects the Packers to keep the two together, sen though there are other FAs to sign.

http://espn.go.com/blog/green-bay-pa...n-duo-together

Slot guys have been getting deals more like #1 WRs as time has gone on. And the cap takes a jump next year. I don't think its impossible he gets to $9 mil per year anymore. However, there is a theory rolling around that WRs, regardless of cap situation, are about to experience a hair cut like RBs began to take a few years ago. We'll see. I hope we don't need to wait to see it play out.

[Tony Oday]

Sign him for the same as Jordy. Not a huge fan but he is showing up, add a TE and we will be terrifying to DCs around the NFL.