http://www.advancedfootballanalytics...medium=twitter

It turns out that, according to the simulation, it doesn't make sense to ever use the four-minute offense when up by four points. These results suggest it would be better to keep playing with a 'normal' mindset all the way to when it's time to kneel out the clock. For example, when the offense starts with the ball at 3 minutes to play and waits until 30 seconds left before going into their four-minute offense they win 90.0% of the time compared to 87.0% of the time when immediately going into it.

I won't bore you with graphs for the other score differences, but they're all very similar.