MVP debate: Who's most deserving? A.Rodgers - JJ Watt - T.Brady - P.Manning - D.Murray?

[Harlan Huckleby]

Right, the MVP award goes to best QB that makes playoffs.

I'm disagreeing with your theory that JJ Watt is not so great because his team didn't make playoffs.

[King Friday]

Right, the MVP award goes to best QB that makes playoffs.

I'm disagreeing with your theory that JJ Watt is not so great because his team didn't make playoffs.

I'm not so much dumping on the playoff miss...they were a Ravens loss away from making it.

I'm far more leaning toward the inferior schedule the Texans played in terms of facing experienced, elite QBs. Did Watt rack up this incredible season facing superior QB competition? Did he play in meaningful games against top talent? The answer is a resounding NO.

Did he face Tom Brady? No. Peyton Manning? No. Aaron Rodgers? No.

When the Texans did face an upper tier QB, they ALWAYS lost. Twice against Luck? Two losses. Once against Big Ben? Another loss. Once against Romo? Yet another loss.

In today's pass happy NFL, it is easier for QBs to put up numbers...and it is easier for DEs to rack up sacks. 20 sacks today is probably equal to 30+ just a generation ago. It isn't a stat that impresses me. Wins impress me. Wins over elite talent really impresses me. Watt did not have a win over elite talent. He had a great year. He's not the most valuable player in the league...not by a long shot.

[mraynrand]

I'm not so much dumping on the playoff miss...they were a Ravens loss away from making it.

I'm far more leaning toward the inferior schedule the Texans played in terms of facing experienced, elite QBs. Did Watt rack up this incredible season facing superior QB competition? Did he play in meaningful games against top talent? The answer is a resounding NO.

Did he face Tom Brady? No. Peyton Manning? No. Aaron Rodgers? No.

When the Texans did face an upper tier QB, they ALWAYS lost. Twice against Luck? Two losses. Once against Big Ben? Another loss. Once against Romo? Yet another loss.

In today's pass happy NFL, it is easier for QBs to put up numbers...and it is easier for DEs to rack up sacks. 20 sacks today is probably equal to 30+ just a generation ago. It isn't a stat that impresses me. Wins impress me. Wins over elite talent really impresses me. Watt did not have a win over elite talent. He had a great year. He's not the most valuable player in the league...not by a long shot.

This is a good post. Without biasing you with my view, would you do the same assessment for Rodgers - How do you think his stats/performances line up, especially against elite defenses/talent?

[King Friday]

This is a good post. Without biasing you with my view, would you do the same assessment for Rodgers - How do you think his stats/performances line up, especially against elite defenses/talent?

Aaron Rodgers certainly was more effective against poor defenses...that is expected. So let's throw out all the gaudy numbers he put up against piss poor defenses. He is supposed to toy with those units, and he did to a VAST extent.

However, Rodgers did face a fair number of very good to great defenses this season to test him. Using top 10 defenses...based on total yardage allowed over the season...Rodgers faced those units 6 times out of 16 games. Rodgers was .500 in those 6 games...he won the home games, lost the road games. He was not consistently dominant against elite defenses, but he held serve at home and had several big performances.

Seattle (#1) - Week #1 - Rodgers was mediocre in this game. Granted, it was the first game of the year...on the road...against the defending champs. He completed 70% of his passes, but wasn't impactful.
Jets (#6) - Week #2 - Rodgers and the offense was not firing on all cylinders here either, but in key situations Rodgers was good...QBR over 84. 7-14 on 3rd downs. 3 TD passes, including an 80 yarder to Jordy late in the 3rd quarter to give Green Bay the lead.
Detroit (#2) - Week #3 - Very tough start to the season facing the top 2 defenses in the league on the road! The Lions made things uncomfortable for Rodgers and he wasn't effective on the road.
Carolina (#10) - Week #7 - Rodgers dominated a good Panther defense. Only 3 incompletions. 94 QBR. 3 TD passes.
Buffalo (#4) - week #15 - Perhaps Rodgers' worst game ever. He certainly got no help from his receivers with 7 drops, but some of that was due to inaccuracy by Rodgers.
Detroit (#2) - week #17 - With a division title on the line and a nagging injury in cold temperatures, Rodgers posted a 97+ QBR against an elite defense in an epic performance.

In addition to those, Rodgers also had statement WINS over capable Patriots (#13) and Dolphins (#12) defenses.

The best offense JJ Watt can claim to have beaten this year...using the same yardage metric? Baltimore at #12.

Bottom line? Against better offenses, JJ Watt and his defense did not do enough to win games. It wasn't like Houston's offense was horrible either to the point they had to be overcome...they weren't great, but they were 14th in points scored in the league. If Watt was SO dominating and SO disruptive and SO much better than any defensive player since LT...why were they only 9-7 against a cupcake schedule?

Sorry...I do not see how any of that translates to an MVP award for Watt. If he put up the numbers he did and his team was 12-4 or 13-3...yeah, put him in the debate like LT was. However, you can't be valuable if your team doesn't get wins...because WINS are what ultimately determine value more than anything else. Rodgers got wins against elite competition and in big moments. Watt did not.

[Freak Out]

Good stuff King.

If Watt gets the MVP over Rodgers it will be a crime.

[mraynrand]

Aaron Rodgers certainly was more effective...Watt did not.

Nice post. I repped you. I don't agree with everything you write, but it's a decent argument. I forget who floated the argument that other teams elevate their play against Rodgers, but I 'd like to see (or do myself) that analysis, especially in light of the Jets' performance at Miami yesterday.

[pbmax]

Here are some numbers on Rodgers versus the best Defenses he has faced this season. He has not fared as well as he has done in the past and the author concludes its a result of a small sample size. But I blame this on the lack of a true third option in the passing game plus road protection woes. Adams/Quarless/Rodgers/Boykin only dominated in maybe 1 or 2 games this season (domination in the statistical sense, beating one on one coverage while attention was devoted elsewhere).

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/gam...-game-previews

The Packers have been beaten pretty easily in three games against those top-ten pass defenses, winning only against Miami with some late-game heroics. Fortunately for the Packers, there is little reason to think that Rodgers' inability to find more consistent success against the NFL's best pass defenses will continue. Over the last five years, Rodgers has fared well against top-ten pass defenses, and only a little worse than he has against the rest of the league. The four games from earlier this year look like a small-sample quirk.
In fact, most quarterbacks perform similarly against the top pass defenses and the rest of the league in terms of DYAR per game. That's not all that surprising since DYAR accounts for the opposing defense's strength.

[pbmax]

Carolina was a bad defense for a good portion of the season that came on at the end to finish medicare overall. They were just starting their upswing when the Packers faced them.

[mraynrand]

They were just starting their upswing when the Packers faced them.

Do you mean to say the fourth quarter of that game was their turning point? And to think I was there to see it!

[Harlan Huckleby]

Did Watt rack up this incredible season facing superior QB competition? Did he play in meaningful games against top talent? The answer is a resounding NO.

There are many ways to evaluate the greatness of a defensive lineman. Quality of opposing QBs is pretty low on that list. Stats don't tell the story either.

I think JJ Watt is the best player in the NFL. It is a subjective evaluation. I get that the MVP Award is reserved for QBs.

[woodbuck27]

Well Packerrats the latest news on the NFL MVP:

Maybe it isn't Aaron Rodgers?

The buzz is that huge support exists (It's all over twitter) Tony Romo and of course as we know ....JJ Watt.

Aaron Rodgers almost appears as the forgotten man.

"What in hell is going on around here?"



I support the obvious choice or Aaron Rodgers for NFL MVP for the 2014 Season.

[mraynrand]

I hope Rodgers doesn't get the MVP. Give it to Romo. a little extra motivation couldn't hurt.

[Harlan Huckleby]

Sorry...I do not see how any of that translates to an MVP award for Watt. If he put up the numbers he did and his team was 12-4 or 13-3...yeah, put him in the debate like LT was. However, you can't be valuable if your team doesn't get wins...because WINS are what ultimately determine value more than anything else. Rodgers got wins against elite competition and in big moments. Watt did not.

This is not basketball. There are about 35 critical players on each team that determine record, not to mention coaching. If anything, outstanding players on inferior teams have proven themselves more valuable than great players who benefit from talent around them.

The QB position is a little different in that it is so determinative But myself, I still would reward impact more so than the final team record.

I get what the MVP award has become - the coronation of the QB of a Super Bowl bound team. There certainly is plenty of logic to this system in a pass-happy league.
I prefer to pick who I think really is the best and most valuable player in the league. Why? Because I can.

[Maxie the Taxi]

I think the MVP should be the League's chief statistician. Without him, no one would know how good anyone really is.

[Cheesehead Craig]

But can Rodgers win with it being a close vote or when he wasn't the frontrunner?

[RashanGary]

The 2nd or third best QB is more valuable than any other player IMO. It's been that way for many, many years. I'd always give it to a Qb until something drastic changes in the NFL.

[woodbuck27]

But can Rodgers win with it being a close vote or when he wasn't the frontrunner?

I believe at some point if not for the balance of the season that Aaron Rodgers was a (if not the) front runner.

Recall what the talk was and NFL MVP before Tom Brady and the New England Patriots arrived in Green Bay?

Wasn't that at least partially billed as the battle between leading candidates?

[mraynrand]

If anything, outstanding players on inferior teams have proven themselves more valuable than great players who benefit from talent around them.

This reminds me of all those years George Cumby played in the shadows of a terrible team, with no one knowing how great he really was. sniff, sniff, sob....

[mraynrand]

I think the MVP should be the League's chief statistician. Without him, no one would know how good anyone really is.

According to sources, a tree may have just fallen in the woods, but there were no statisticians there to observe it. #neverhappened

[pbmax]

Well now this all sounds like the Heismann vote, and we will next be determining which regions will vote which way (Southwest for Romo/Watt, Midwest for Rodgers, East for Brady, West for Merlin Olson). Which means this is all a crock of crap.

Change it to the MOP for Pete Rozelle's sake.