Official Randall Cobb FA Thread

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The players know what risk is involved by playing out a contract. Look at what that did to Finley. Cobb won the gamble. Jennings lost the gamble.

I find the idea that the players wouldn't understand to be unconvincing. Someone could make a stink, but it would not be based on the logic of who incurred the greater risk/reward.

Nelson won his bet. He signed early twice and got two nice paydays in a timespan where many FAs only get one monster deal. He traded away one year in each of his deals for more money and more guarantees. Cobb, if he signs a mega-deal, might have to sign for enough years to get one shot at this.

nelson didn't gamble, either time

he took the sure thing both times when he would have made a lot more money if he would have gambled on himself

jordy lost because he didn't go all in

[pbmax]

i think "we" (you me and everyone else) tend to give way more credit to players then they deserve when it comes to the smarts department

how else can you explain all these guys signing "fake number" deals, or being pissed or shocked when they get cut in year 3 of their deal when their cap number jumps from 2 million a year to 17?

Agents couldn't survive in the market if they were lying to the players about the veracity of fake headline numbers. Those are for the agent to shop for media attention.

Agents and teams eventually schooled the media (and public), the last to learn this lesson, that the top line numbers of theses deals are not the important ones. Its guarantees and money in the first two or three years. You were making this very point last year about Shields versus other CB deals.

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Agents couldn't survive in the market if they were lying to the players about the veracity of fake headline numbers. Those are for the agent to shop for media attention.

Agents and teams eventually schooled the media (and public), the last to learn this lesson, that the top line numbers of theses deals are not the important ones. Its guarantees and money in the first two or three years. You were making this very point last year about Shields versus other CB deals.

yup i was

but that doesn't mean these players get it, and i know we discussed that point for quite a while

but ask yourself this

would a smart person speed down the road, with out of state plates, while you're carrying a pound a weed, a gun, and almost $200,000?

[call_me_ishmael]

nelson didn't gamble, either time

he took the sure thing both times when he would have made a lot more money if he would have gambled on himself

jordy lost because he didn't go all in

Hard to say a guy making 9M a year lost. He is doing just fine. He played it safe, though. Randall is gonna get overpaid by somebody. Hopefully not the Packers. I'd love him back at 7M. He's a 5'10" slot guy. My honest opinion: Reggie Bush could sign w/ the Pack for a fraction of the price and provide a lot of what Randall Cobb did.

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Agents couldn't survive in the market if they were lying to the players about the veracity of fake headline numbers. Those are for the agent to shop for media attention.

Agents and teams eventually schooled the media (and public), the last to learn this lesson, that the top line numbers of theses deals are not the important ones. Its guarantees and money in the first two or three years. You were making this very point last year about Shields versus other CB deals.

so he can use that headline to get the next guy to sign with him so he can get a 3 year 50 million dollar deal )that actually turns out to be a 2 year 7 million dollar deal

the agents advertise those numbers so they can sucker in the next guy

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Hard to say a guy making 9M a year lost. He is doing just fine. He played it safe, though. Randall is gonna get overpaid by somebody. Hopefully not the Packers. I'd love him back at 7M. He's a 5'10" slot guy. My honest opinion: Reggie Bush could sign w/ the Pack for a fraction of the price and provide a lot of what Randall Cobb did.

and like i just said

JORDY ISN"T MAKING 9 FUCKING MILLION A YEAR EITHER

[pbmax]

Nelson did gamble though. He eschewed a bigger payday a year later to take a smaller deal and another shot at FA before he was 30.

It paid off with his rise to the top of his profession and good health. Now, you might think his choice was the sounder of the two (versus Cobb or Jennings waiting until the last year of their deal) but it was still a risk.

[pbmax]

and like i just said

JORDY ISN"T MAKING 9 FUCKING MILLION A YEAR EITHER

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...-jordy-nelson/

$8.5 mpy considered as an extension. PFT had his down for $3.5 mil due to him in 2014.

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Nelson did gamble though. He eschewed a bigger payday a year later to take a smaller deal and another shot at FA before he was 30.

It paid off with his rise to the top of his profession and good health. Now, you might think his choice was the sounder of the two (versus Cobb or Jennings waiting until the last year of their deal) but it was still a risk.

isn't that kind of like saying you gambled by buying a snickers with your dollar bill (getting the sure thing) instead of buying the lottery ticket?

[pbmax]

isn't that kind of like saying you gambled by buying a snickers with your dollar bill (getting the sure thing) instead of buying the lottery ticket?

No, because the odds aren't tilted that unfavorably against the decision to wait.

Its more like spending your buck on a Snickers rather than waiting 6 months and getting 2 for $1.

A team will always do a deal for a player below market value if he still has value to them. Paying up front for future years is another matter entirely.

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http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...-jordy-nelson/

$8.5 mpy considered as an extension. PFT had his down for $3.5 mil due to him in 2014.

that numbers wrong, i think. it gives his cap number for 2014 which included .75 million in pro rated signing bonus from the previous deal, which i took out to get at my 2.75 number for 2014

either way, he's still well under 9 million

i'm bored, so if you go actual cash money, he made

2014- 14.25 million
2015- 2.3 million
2016- 6.5 million
2017- 9.25 million
2018- 10.25 million

or 8.51 million "cash", per year

[Patler]

Nelson has done it twice, both times he traded in the risk of the last year of a deal for new guaranteed money and a longer term deal. Nelson accomplished what many do when they take a shorter deal and hope to hit FA in their peak again (like Finley tried to do). Nelson did it by taking less, earlier.

I saw an interview with Nelson shortly after he signed the last one. He almost seemed embarrassed when they started talking about money. He was asked if this was a "fair" deal for him, in view of what other WRs had gotten. He went into a long discussion about how they are all paid way too much for what they do, that he had already made an awful lot of money just to play football, so, yes, to do what he does, this was fair. If it was low in eys of others, at least the Packers would have ability to sign team mates, etc.

I think Jordy will always seem like a bargain, because it didn't sound like he would ever have demands.

[Patler]

I find the idea that the players wouldn't understand to be unconvincing. Someone could make a stink, but it would not be based on the logic of who incurred the greater risk/reward.

Well, some of these geniuses can't seem to understand that their income isn't just their "salary", signing bonuses count, too. They hold out based on the unfairness of their salary, ignoring the fact they may have already received much, much more a few years earlier.