Quote Originally Posted by vince View Post
Wow that's a lot of work th. What's your thesis for this project?

You can make the argument that the one chink in Rodgers' armor is 4th quarter comebacks. I think it's a little overblown at this point. That first year puts him in a pretty big whole with a pretty small sample size to overcome. You can see how heavily weighted thse opportunities are to the beginning of his career. He's so good at everything and he's come up big in the fourth quarter of a lot of big games particularly in and since 2010.

Five years from now it might have more significance but it may also be a total non-issue by then too. He's pretty damn good - in every quarter.

Brady may go down as the best ever but I'd take Rodgers in any situation at any time of any game and be very happy about it.
Quote Originally Posted by vince View Post
I'm not sure what to make of the formula th. It might be better to say that Rodgers was successful in 17 of the 35 instances and unsuccessful in 18. So he's 17-18 or .485 (that don't make the playoffs). Only 6 of Rodgers' 17 successes and 13 of Rodgers' 18 failures came in his first three years. So he's had 11 successes and 5 failures since. That's .687 since 2010. That's selective obviously but it's where one trend breaks into the opposite direction. And when you look at 2010 the trend changed direction in the middle of the year. All the successes occurred at the end of that year and all the failures happened in the beginning of the year.

So it's only 4 of Rodgers' successes happened before the midway point of 2010 and 16 of his 18 failures. He's 13 and 2 in 4th quarter comebacks since the halfway point of 2010. .866. That's pretty damn good.

Brady is 45-23 (.661) for his career. That could be the best ever overall.
Thanks for the feedback!

I'd say the thesis is to take a closer look at 4th quarter comeback statistics and see if our prevailing perceptions make sense. The talking heads say that Rodgers can't get it done, but you're right - in the last few years, he has been rather good in this regard (and his defense has been delivering a lot more), but one oddity is that he still has no wins in overtime.

I wanted to see if a metric works that takes into account the type of comeback and failure. QBs get too much credit for "comebacks" that take place early in the 4th, that require defensive stops to maintain. And they receive too much blame when the defense ends up giving up a lead. So that's why I award the most points to a "last score" situation, where there is no time left, or it happens as the winning score in overtime. Next one down the tier would be a go-ahead score that needs one more defensive stop to maintain, and so on. QBs get no blame if they get the go-ahead or tying score, but the defense subsequently gives up a score with too little time left.

The way you're scoring it is fine, but it is shifting all credit to the QB for a defense doing its job, and then giving a QB credit for a "win" when the team lost, and thus maybe ought to be considered a "no decision". The weighting takes care of that.