Most people I've read are saying the top tier only goes to about 15 this year. Who knows what Ted's board looks like but it's not too often that he falls in love with a guy where he'll overspend or have a guy with so much value at the top he has to have him regardless of the roster makeup. Arod and Clay start and end that list I'd say.

Maybe Gurley/Gordon would be that guy or they're comfortable with Randy Gregory, but that would be out of character for Ted to take a guy who's not smart or disciplined enough to stay off the weed for a week and detox before the biggest drug test of his life.

With Arod and given Ted's track record with receiver picks, I can't see one bringing enough value over another choice and a later receiver to be worth the pick. History shows that most elite receivers end up being over-valued relative to their actual win contribution over other receivers. Ted don't buy flash. I think he'd try like hell to trade back if that happens.

Then there are so many guys in the range from the bottom of 1 to the end of 3 that it's impossible to hone in on who might be in a small second tier that he'd have to have for him to ignore fit/need. Plus there might be a guy they have in that second tier who fits need.

You don't see o-linemen who are thought to be sure things that are too good to pass up drop to that point, so it's hard to see that be the choice at 30. Tight end maybe but it doesn't seem like any of them jump off the charts/film enough for that. If Williams ran a 4.4 maybe but that didn't happen.

Gurley, Gordon, defense, or trade back I'd say. Bottom line is Ted's forgotten more about these guys than we know, and he knows the draft better than anyone so ITIT.