Air Your Grievances: Bob's Scout on the Packer Draft Needs

[pbmax]

So let me make sure I understand: If you have a guy rated as a fourth rounder and you get him in the fourth that's not a great "value" pick, but if you have a guy rated as a third rounder but you get him in the fourth that's a good pick?

And are guys who have great talent but off-field issues good "value" if you get, say, Becham, the receiver, at the top of the second?

First example, yes its not great value. But say for instance he is the last 4th round graded player left on your board and you get him, then that value might be "good enough". And its easy to take this too far. You could keep trading down and make value picks consecutively at the end of whatever round is loaded on your board, but you have reduced the chances of you getting a top tier talent in the early rounds.

Value in terms of just the draft (not the longer term payoff as Rand discusses in answer to you) is more about the pick and what it represents than the player itself. Did you use your 3rd round pick in a panic on the last safety and take a talent you rated for the fourth round? Do that a lot and you literally reduce the talent on your team over time. You could trade down and get a second fourth or fifth round talent.

Second example is good value but also collect additional risk.

[mraynrand]

Value in terms of just the draft (not the longer term payoff as Rand discusses in answer to you) is more about the pick and what it represents than the player itself. Did you use your 3rd round pick in a panic on the last safety and take a talent you rated for the fourth round? Do that a lot and you literally reduce the talent on your team over time. You could trade down and get a second fourth or fifth round talent.

Good explanation, but it all goes out the window if many guys from multiple rounds play well or, more likely, if can't play at all (see 2004 draft). Sometimes you don't have to wait 'over time' to see the talent of your team reduce!

[pbmax]

Good explanation, but it all goes out the window if many guys from multiple rounds play well or, more likely, if can't play at all (see 2004 draft). Sometimes you don't have to wait 'over time' to see the talent of your team reduce!

It never hurts to get it right.