Good explanation, but it all goes out the window if many guys from multiple rounds play well or, more likely, if can't play at all (see 2004 draft). Sometimes you don't have to wait 'over time' to see the talent of your team reduce!Originally Posted by pbmax
"Never, never ever support a punk like mraynrand. Rather be as I am and feel real sympathy for his sickness." - Woodbuck
It never hurts to get it right.
Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.
So in this example, Chad Clifton was a good pick but not a good value pick, correct?
This line from PB helps, too: "Value in terms of just the draft (not the longer term payoff as Rand discusses in answer to you) is more about the pick and what it represents than the player itself."
I kept wondering how the fugg you could determine "value" when you have little idea how a guy will end up performing. But now I think I understand better - "value" is not at all, really, about how good the player is - it's more about perceiving that you got a guy who's better than the place at which you drafted him.
I don't know what the term is, but the antithesis of this - I guess "anti-value" - would be Nick Collins. Most teams had him rated way, way down the board, but TT took him in the second round, shocking everyone and causing a lot of head-scratching (mine, too) - but in the end Ted nailed it, absolutely nailed it.
A lesser example might be Richard Rodgers. I think he was pegged as a fifth rounder or so, but TT took him in the third. So far, he seems to be worth that pick.
Kyri Thornton, not so much. But I am hoping that someone has lit a fire under his ass and he wakes up this year. But we'll see.
"The Devine era is actually worse than you remember if you go back and look at it."
KYPack
Yes to Clifton. And yes also to what PB is saying. There is a draft day value determination, and an "actual results in the field" evaluation. They are totally different.
"A lesser example might be Richard Rodgers. I think he was pegged as a fifth rounder or so, but TT took him in the third. So far, he seems to be worth that pick."
R. Rodgers was terrible value (draft day), but might end up being a reasonable third rounder by actual results.
"Never, never ever support a punk like mraynrand. Rather be as I am and feel real sympathy for his sickness." - Woodbuck
Right. That's what I was thinking. So while he's an "antivalue" pick, he could end up surpassing expectations.
"The Devine era is actually worse than you remember if you go back and look at it."
KYPack
I'm not really talking about value in the draft so much as value to the team. I'm saying that for 2015 (and probably the duration of a rookie contract), its a lot more likely you can improve the team with help at ILB or CB than you could at NT because of the nature of the position and the composition of the roster at the moment.
Draft value is still draft value but its not nearly as simple as trade charts make it seem. The value of the opportunities to draft players follows normal distribution (chart points) more than the players themselves do. There will be players you'll like better than anyone else. Maybe you trust your specific staff to fix their specific issues, maybe they are an especially great fit in your scheme or locker room. A great GM should be able to find value everywhere in the draft because they get guys who would be drafted much higher if the market consisted of teams exactly like theirs. Furthermore the contract situation complicates value. If the Seahawks had a time machine I think they'd find a way to get Russel Wilson in the first, even with the knowledge that he'd be there in the 3rd. The extra years on his rookie deal are worth the opportunity cost.
70% of the Earth is covered by water. The rest is covered by Al Harris.
uh oh
"Never, never ever support a punk like mraynrand. Rather be as I am and feel real sympathy for his sickness." - Woodbuck
Down the rabbit hole we go ...
Football Perspective's Draft Pick Value Chart and Calculator: http://www.footballperspective.com/i...ue-calculator/
Football Perspective's Draft Pick Value Calculator: http://www.footballperspective.com/d...ue-calculator/
Jimmy's Johnson's Chart: http://www.footballperspective.com/draft-value-chart/
Jimmy Johnson Draft Pick Trade Value Calculator: http://www.footballperspective.com/j...ue-calculator/
Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.
If you have a guy rated as the 11th best player in the draft, and you are trying to trade up into the 20th slot to select him, what are you paying for? The 20th slot or the 11th best player?
The answer, as it often is, is this: It depends.
You want the player and he represents good value at 20. But how much does it cost to go get it?If you have a guy rated as the 11th best player in the draft, and you are trying to trade up into the 20th slot to select him, what are you paying for? The 20th slot or the 11th best player?
The answer, as it often is, is this: It depends.
Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.
Depends on if the team at 20 agrees. If so, it takes more to get the pick from them, or they might not be willing to talk deal in the first place. If they don't agree, it's more Packer-friendly. Not that those things are part of the negotiation, just that they have a bearing on the perception of value of that 20th pick.
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