Anatomy of a Winner - Green Bay Packers

[vince]

Good Article

Ted Thompson hasn't done things the easy way, but it's hard to deny the he's done it the best way to maximize chances of success. His biggest and most impactful decisions have also been his most controversial, but he trusted his evaluations and pretty much nailed each one of them in the face of public pressure and criticism.

1) Trust Home Grown Talent

The Packers focus on finding and developing their talent. They hit on early round picks. They find contributors in the middle and late rounds. They find contributors off the scrap heap. The key is they want players they can bring up and develop in their own system and culture.

Thompson Saves Packers' Dollars for Home-Grown Talent

Thompson argues there is only so much money to go around, and when it's time to pay players like Rodgers, Matthews, B.J. Raji, Sam Shields and Randall Cobb, you want to have as much money as possible to keep them. Sometimes you choose not to pay as was the case with Greg Jennings, Scott Wells, Daryn Colledge and Nick Barnett.

"If you've done a good enough job of drafting and developing, you're going to have more of those at that stage than you can keep," Thompson said. "But that's, relatively speaking, a good problem to have. You have to try to make good decisions in every deal that you do.

2) Getting the Head Coach Right

One of the things I have found doing research is good teams are not swayed by popular opinion. They find the right fit, even if it does not appear to be a great move on the surface. Take Green Bay's hiring of Mike McCarthy as head coach in 2006.

McCarthy was coming off a one year stint as offensive coordinator of one of the least effective offenses in the league.
...
Yet it has worked. McCarthy has won 65% of his games, five division titles in nine years, and a Super Bowl to go with two additional trips to the NFC Championship Game. He has developed perhaps the best quarterback in the league and has assembled a staff that has implemented Thompson's vision. On good teams, finding unheralded talent by the front office and developing that talent with the coaching staff go hand in hand.

McCarthy totally buys into Thompson's program of largely forsaking free agency and focusing on developing the next set of great Packers.

3. Getting the Quarterback Right
Getting Aaron Rodgers

In 2005, we had approximately 20 players rated above the first-round line. When we arrived at our pick, at No. 24, the only name left above that line was Rodgers, who played the same position as one of the most durable players in NFL history: Brett Favre. (I always had a hard time signing a backup quarterback, as they wanted to have at least the possibility of playing.)

It is impossible to overstate how popular of a figure Favre was in Green Bay. The Packers decisively cut ties with him to go with an unknown in Rodgers because they were comfortable with what they had. They did not panic and release Favre to avoid a media circus. They acted deliberately and tried to get the best of all worlds, sending the legend out of the conference and getting a pick in return.

In this case, the Packers were taking the quarterback off a winning team for an unproven. These are the kinds of decisions that get front offices fired if they prove to be poor. It was another "trust the board" moment for the Packers. Their evaluation was that Rodgers could handle the job and play at a high level. Within three years, Rodgers delivered a championship.

The two decisions the Packers made with Rodgers were franchise-altering. They got both right because they didn't bow to pressure. They trusted their evaluations rather than playing it safe and letting outside forces dictate what they did.

4. Be Humble and Hedge Your Bets

NFL teams start out with seven Draft picks each year. In the eleven Drafts Thompson has run as Packers general manager Green Bay has finished selecting 11, 11, 11, 9, 8, 7, 10, 8, 11, 9, and 8 players respectively. If you are scoring at home, that makes it 10 out of 11 times Thompson has finished with more picks than he started and 0 out of 11 he has finished with less picks than he has started.

...in 14 overall [2nd round] picks, Thompson has picked 5 busts and 5 Pro Bowl players. With 36% in both categories, Thompson’s bust rate and Pro Bowl rate are significantly better than the NFL average, which again are 50%/20%.

That is impressive, but rate only matters so much. It is ultimately about the number of players a team gets. If I have two second round picks because I traded down, I only need to go 50% to get a player. If you only have one, you have to go 100%. At the end of the day, we end up in the same place. We both got one player. I just built in extra margin for error. Under the criteria they used, even though Thompson's average was an excellent 36%, he actually found a quality player 88% of the time of the second rounds in which he worked.

[Pugger]

I saw this linked on another Packers' forum and found it interesting to look at our team and how they do things from a perspective from someone who does not follow the club..

[pbmax]

Pelissero covers some of the same ground about keeping your own here: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...laga/71166482/

Since Thompson became the general manager in 2005, the best second-contract free agent to leave Green Bay on a multi-year deal is probably Daryn Colledge — a good, solid, but ultimately replaceable guard who got a five-year, $27.5 million deal with the Arizona Cardinals in 2011.

The Packers wanted to keep reserve cornerback Davon House this year, but not at the $6.125 million average he got from the Jacksonville Jaguars. The other eight players lost to multiyear second deals with new teams under Thompson weren't exactly stars: Bhawoh Jue, Paris Lenon, Colin Cole, Jason Spitz, Brandon Jackson, Korey Hall, Matt Flynn and Evan Dietrich-Smith.

[Guiness]

Pelissero covers some of the same ground about keeping your own here: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...laga/71166482/

That's pretty interesting. For perspective, I'd like to see how other teams fared.

The Lions lost more than the Pack on their DL alone as they went to their 2nd contract. Besides Suh there was Cliff Avril, Nick Failey and Willie Young.

[Fritz]

I think Thompson has built a really good system - he sticks by what he believes, and it works. I suppose Matt Millen stuck to what he believed, but that didn't work out so well.

[Tony Oday]

Who has gone to another team and really excelled?

[Guiness]

Favre - he had a good half season with the Jets, and his first year with Minny was damn good, but I can't think of anyone else off the top of my head. Sharper was on his watch, wasn't he? But when all was said and done, I don't think anyone is upset he got away!

[Patler]

Favre - he had a good half season with the Jets, and his first year with Minny was damn good, but I can't think of anyone else off the top of my head. Sharper was on his watch, wasn't he? But when all was said and done, I don't think anyone is upset he got away!

Are we discussing any FA lost, or just guys going into their second contracts?

[Fritz]

I think both - any player whom Thompson has "let" get away.

In other words, where might he have made a mistake in letting a guy go too early?

I think the board and time have answered that regarding Scott Wells, at least.

[Patler]

I think both - any player whom Thompson has "let" get away.

In other words, where might he have made a mistake in letting a guy go too early?

I think the board and time have answered that regarding Scott Wells, at least.

His hand was pretty-well forced with Sharper and Wahle by the contracts Sherman saddled him with. Wahle was All-Pro the year he left, but his career was ended after three years due to a shoulder injury. Good players lost under TT, but he had few options at the time two months after being hired.

Perhaps his biggest mistake on the player front was releasing Jon Ryan. They floundered with punters until Masthay was found, and now he is a question mark himself.

[Guiness]

Are we discussing any FA lost, or just guys going into their second contracts?

Good point, actually. 2nd contract time is decision making time, are the players worth retaining on a non-rookie wage rate? The Packers seem quite good at making that decision, but I'd still like to see how other teams fare.

[Fritz]

His hand was pretty-well forced with Sharper and Wahle by the contracts Sherman saddled him with. Wahle was All-Pro the year he left, but his career was ended after three years due to a shoulder injury. Good players lost under TT, but he had few options at the time two months after being hired.

Perhaps his biggest mistake on the player front was releasing Jon Ryan. They floundered with punters until Masthay was found, and now he is a question mark himself.

Like his mentor, who let Craig Hentrich get away. Why won't they pay a punter, for crying out loud? They don't make that much.

[TravisWilliams23]

Like his mentor, who let Craig Hentrich get away. Why won't they pay a punter, for crying out loud? They don't make that much.

If I recall that infamous decision correctly, they cut Ryan just after the last preseason game and picked up Derrick Frost from Wash. Ryan was averaging around 48 yards per punt in the preseason and was liked by Crosby as a holder.
I think Slocum wanted him gone for some reason or another. My fading memory thinks it was about "inconsistency" with his punts.
Even if Slocum had TT's ear on the matter, it was still TT who listened to that POS and released Ryan.

[Fritz]

If I recall that infamous decision correctly, they cut Ryan just after the last preseason game and picked up Derrick Frost from Wash. Ryan was averaging around 48 yards per punt in the preseason and was liked by Crosby as a holder.
I think Slocum wanted him gone for some reason or another. My fading memory thinks it was about "inconsistency" with his punts.
Even if Slocum had TT's ear on the matter, it was still TT who listened to that POS and released Ryan.

So it was all Slocum's fault! And before that, it was Kurt Schottenheimer's fault.

[pbmax]

Because directional punting was the problem with the ST units.

[Guiness]

If I recall that infamous decision correctly, they cut Ryan just after the last preseason game and picked up Derrick Frost from Wash. Ryan was averaging around 48 yards per punt in the preseason and was liked by Crosby as a holder.
I think Slocum wanted him gone for some reason or another. My fading memory thinks it was about "inconsistency" with his punts.
Even if Slocum had TT's ear on the matter, it was still TT who listened to that POS and released Ryan.

Oh oh oh, I know what happened! He punched Slocum in the face!

[sharpe1027]

Oh oh oh, I know what happened! He punched Slocum in the face!

No, someone had to have been dating a coach's daughter.

[Patler]

Ryan was let go the day after an exhibition game in which he ran 10 or 15 yards on a fake punt, getting a first down by inches. Problem was, the fake was called on the sideline before the punt team went in, with the fake automatically called off if the receiving team showed something. They did, and 10 of 11 guys were correctly playing for the ball to be punted, only Ryan missed it. No one blocked for him, he broke a bunch of tackles, and barely got it. Slocum and MM were not happy, wondering how a bunch of rookies correctly understood the situation and their "veteran" punter did not.

I thought that more than anything else led to his release. They didn't feel they could trust him.

I saw a lot of irony in his fake during the NFCCG.

[Guiness]

Ryan was let go the day after an exhibition game in which he ran 10 or 15 yards on a fake punt, getting a first down by inches. Problem was, the fake was called on the sideline before the punt team went in, with the fake automatically called off if the receiving team showed something. They did, and 10 of 11 guys were correctly playing for the ball to be punted, only Ryan missed it. No one blocked for him, he broke a bunch of tackles, and barely got it. Slocum and MM were not happy, wondering how a bunch of rookies correctly understood the situation and their "veteran" punter did not.

I thought that more than anything else led to his release. They didn't feel they could trust him.

I saw a lot of irony in his fake during the NFCCG.

To summarize: he Rubley'd, and they let him go.

aside: he's a damn good runner

[Oscar]

I'm thinking Mike Stock was the mastermind behind the Jon Ryan release. Has some past connection with Frosty the punter..