QBs

[Harlan Huckleby]

ESPN Insider's 2015 quarterback rankings, voted by 35 NFL coaches/evaluators

(age this fall)
Tier 1
T-1. Aaron Rodgers (31)
T-1. Tom Brady (38)
3. Andrew Luck (26)
4. Ben Roethlisberger (33)
5. Peyton Manning (39)
6. Drew Brees (36)

Tier 2
7. Philip Rivers
8. Russell Wilson
9. Tony Romo
10. Joe Flacco
11. Matt Ryan
T-12. Eli Manning
T-12. Matthew Stafford
14. Cam Newton

Tier 3
15. Carson Palmer
16. Alex Smith
17. Ryan Tannehill
T-18. Colin Kaepernick
T-18. Andy Dalton
T-20. Derek Carr
T-20. Jay Cutler
22. Nick Foles
T-23. Sam Bradford
T-23. Teddy Bridgewater

Tier 4
25. Marcus Mariota
26. Jameis Winston
27. Blake Bortles
28. Robert Griffin III
29. Josh McCown
30. Brian Hoyer
31. Matt Cassel
32. Geno Smith

Among top QBs, only Rodgers & Luck are not in decline, IMO.

[HarveyWallbangers]

ESPN Insider's 2015 quarterback rankings, voted by 35 NFL coaches/evaluators

(age this fall)
Tier 1
T-1. Aaron Rodgers (31)
T-1. Tom Brady (38)
3. Andrew Luck (26)
4. Ben Roethlisberger (33)
5. Peyton Manning (39)
6. Drew Brees (36)

Tier 2
7. Philip Rivers
8. Russell Wilson
9. Tony Romo
10. Joe Flacco
11. Matt Ryan
T-12. Eli Manning
T-12. Matthew Stafford
14. Cam Newton

Tier 3
15. Carson Palmer
16. Alex Smith
17. Ryan Tannehill
T-18. Colin Kaepernick
T-18. Andy Dalton
T-20. Derek Carr
T-20. Jay Cutler
22. Nick Foles
T-23. Sam Bradford
T-23. Teddy Bridgewater

Tier 4
25. Marcus Mariota
26. Jameis Winston
27. Blake Bortles
28. Robert Griffin III
29. Josh McCown
30. Brian Hoyer
31. Matt Cassel
32. Geno Smith

Among top QBs, only Rodgers & Luck are not in decline, IMO.

I think Big Ben has several more good years.

[Harlan Huckleby]

Oh ya, Brees has got more excellent years too. I don't know what stats say, but I think they both peaked already.

The reason I sold BR short is he takes so many hits, and he is a statue now. Fuck, I don't really know.

[mraynrand]

Tier 3
T-18. Colin Kaepernick
T-18. Andy Dalton

hee hee

[pbmax]

Advanced NFL Stats originator, Brian Burke was bought out by ESPN this year. Here is his version of those groupings. He grouped based on similarities to the others in the group so the cutoff lines were less arbitrary. Using two years of data hurts A-A-Ron.

Brian Burke ‏@bburkeESPN 11h11 hours ago
Here's the 4 tiers of 32 starting QBs based on last 2yrs of QBR using a cluster algorithm that min w/in cluster diffs

[KYPack]

Manning #1?

He looked like a one legged statue at the end of last season.

[King Friday]

Tier 3
T-18. Colin Kaepernick
T-18. Andy Dalton

hee hee

T-20. Jay Cutler

LMAO

[Joemailman]

Manning #1?

He looked like a one legged statue at the end of last season.

It's based on 2 years of statistics. That helps Manning and Kaepernick. Hurts Rodgers and Romo.

[KYPack]

It's based on 2 years of statistics. That helps Manning and Kaepernick. Hurts Rodgers and Romo.

OIC.

2 yrs, that's ironic, I doubt PM has 2 yrs left.

Decent thread, Harlan.

[Fritz]

Advanced NFL Stats originator, Brian Burke was bought out by ESPN this year. Here is his version of those groupings. He grouped based on similarities to the others in the group so the cutoff lines were less arbitrary. Using two years of data hurts A-A-Ron.

Brian Burke ‏@bburkeESPN 11h11 hours ago
Here's the 4 tiers of 32 starting QBs based on last 2yrs of QBR using a cluster algorithm that min w/in cluster diffs

Wait, so is this list suggesting that Rodgers is a tier two QB, and so is Krappernick?

[Patler]

Wait, so is this list suggesting that Rodgers is a tier two QB, and so is Krappernick?

Seems right. I doubt many NFL D-coordinators see much difference between Rodgers and Kaepernick, or Palmer, or Dalton, or Newton; but they all lose sleep overnight thinking about P. Manning.

And Brady? Just another third tier hack.

I don't know what all went into their ranking, but sometime they come up with lists that make no sense because they use a "factor" that is either irrelevant or situation/condition dependent, and it throws off everything.

Sometime you can carry statistics too far...............

[pbmax]

Well there is some underlying logic to the numbers over two years. Peyton has a very bad year for him last year as his offense started to melt down late. But it was an extraordinary year for anyone not named Rodges, Brady or Brees. His previous year was stratospheric.

Rodgers had a rough year in 2013 obviously, and was severely limited by the end of this season. But 2014 was good enough for MVP and good enough to keep him 2nd.

Brady had a brutal start to 2013 with his bunch of no namers at WR and injured Gronk. His start in 2014 wasn't much better and Gronk was limited early in '14 as well, starting slowly.

No idea about Kapernick.

And Burke's list is only backward looking, so the DC in Patler's post isn't going to be worried about these two years of past performance when facing the very good vet QBs. His post was about using a different tool to group the performances into 4 sections. #2 isn't going to be the same QB as #9, even if both were 2nd group.

[Patler]

There is always some underlying logic, its the details leading to the final result that can be the problem.