Brady 4 Game Suspension Upheld

[pbmax]

PB, after reading the text messages and in view of the odd behavior before the game, do you think it is more likely that McNally tampered with the balls, or do you think it was more likely that there was no tampering?

The thing I can't work out is the disappearance of the balls before the refs would normally take them out. The Head Ref (Walt Anderson) said he had never seen them disappear early before. If the Patriots regularly did this, you would have had more reports of that because you can bet they asked around.

So disappearing into that closet looks suspicious. But it also doesn't make sense that it was the first time.

I almost want to say they were tampering to get a 12.5 reading after ref inspection, but this wasn't when they did it. This was just a weird deal. I would bet they were leaking air on the sidelines.

[sharpe1027]

So, do you think on that day, it was more likely that McNally tampered with some balls, or that he did not tamper with any?

[pbmax]

So, do you think on that day, it was more likely that McNally tampered with some balls, or that he did not tamper with any?

More likely they did not tamper, based on available evidence, mostly the pressure of the balls.

All the other evidence points to them being ready to tamper if the refs re-inflate them.

[sharpe1027]

More likely they did not tamper, based on available evidence, mostly the pressure of the balls.

All the other evidence points to them being ready to tamper if the refs re-inflate them.

Fair enough, I would come down on the other side here.

The scientific evidence makes the drop in pressure unlikely, but within the realm of possibility. It doesn't sway me too much in either direction, but I think that there is enough evidence that it is more likely that some air was let out. The text messages are pretty bad. While I agree with you that they were jokes, they read like jokes about what they were already doing and planning to do in the future. If all McNally was doing was setting the balls to 12.5 lbs, he would not be under pressure, expecting a huge signing day or cash, or joking about going to ESPN. The manner in which the balls were taken and the missing time on the cameras really clinches the deal.

We have clear motive.
We have them (arguably) discussing the act.
We have opportunity.
We have evidence of tampering (arguably).
We have destruction of evidence after-the-fact.
We have a growing history of misconduct with this particular organization.

It's enough to shift the needle of probability for me. While I can understand that others don't think the evidence is there, there is no requirement to convince everyone. It is just a few individuals making the decision. There will always be people that disagree on any outcome. On the extreme end, people still deny the moon landing.