I agree that smart money is on 11, but when I look at the schedule, I just don't see the losses. For a first place schedule, it doesn't look so bad, helped by the Seahawks taking a step back, and the Cowboys not looking terribly scary, and, well, Carolina being the other division winner.

Put down loses to Broncos, Cards, @Vikings, and the fourth, Chargers or Chiefs? A couple of those games are pretty winable, and I think this is the year the wheels fall off in Denver *shrug*

I went with 12.