The stats are clear, the extended passing play is dead in GB

[Patler]

For Rodgers, a different quarterback with a different skill group at a different stage in his career, the ideal balance between staying within the offense’s framework and extending plays has flipped. When the Packers extended plays in 2011, Rodgers’ passer rating increased 17.69 points. This season, it’s decreased 25.73.

Yet the Packers are extending plays more frequently than even during his best season.

This quote is from one of the best articles about the Packers that I have read in a long time:

https://www.greenbaypressgazette.com...ys/2795997001/

Sorry, it is behind a subscription wall. Ryan Wood timed every Rodgers pass attempt in 2019 and 2011, catalogued them in half-second intervals, then grouped them as:

2 seconds or less (quick passes)
2.01 to 4.0 seconds (multiple progressions)
Over 4.0 seconds (extended plays)

He included an interactive graph to look at the primary passing statistical categories, comparing the two seasons statistics in each group, and each group as part of the overall passing game.

I don't agree with every conclusion he made, but the effort put into the data collection and presentation is impressive.

[run pMc]

I don't have access to the article, but I assume it doesn't go into why the plays were extended. I suppose you'd have to put Rodgers through a long film session and give him truth serum.

He has a quick mind and a good arm, so I'd prefer to see more quick throws and less extended plays, even if that means 7 yard dump offs to Lazard or Graham. Consistently hitting those should be enough to (mostly) avoid 3rd down and move down the field to scoring position.

[Joemailman]

It's also available to those who have JSO subscription.

The lack of production on extended plays is stunning. 2 TD's on 91 throws! His passer rating excluding extended plays is just under 100.

If the overall decline from 2011 to 2019 can be attributed primarily to declining skills by Rodgers, it would seem the decline would continue. If, on the other hand, the decline is due to less talent at the WR position, perhaps we can expect some improvement. Lazard is getting more established, and there should be an opportunity for the Packers to draft a really good WR for the 1st time since they drafted Adams. And St. Brown will be back. He may well have ended up as the #2 WR this year if he had been healthy.

In the meantime, is there a way to get Rodgers to reduce the number of extended plays, which are so unproductive?

[Anti-Polar Bear]

2011: Jennings, Driver, Jones, Nelson, Cobb, J-Mike

2019: Adams, Lazard, Sloth, MVS, Kum, (past-his-prime) Graham

Scrambling ain't dead. Most of the rock-catchers suck.

[pbmax]

2011: Jennings, Driver, Jones, Nelson, Cobb, J-Mike

2019: Adams, Lazard, Sloth, MVS, Kum, (past-his-prime) Graham

Scrambling ain't dead. Most of the rock-catchers suck.

I agree this is most of the issue. However, given that the extended offense is not based on The Flowers offense and more practice time is devoted to the running game, I wonder if this offense simply exists in Rodgers and Adams head.

[RashanGary]

Different offense. Rodgers has evolved into a better field general and less of a gun slinger

I like this offense

[Anti-Polar Bear]

I agree this is most of the issue. However, given that the extended offense is not based on The Flowers offense and more practice time is devoted to the running game, I wonder if this offense simply exists in Rodgers and Adams head.

Packers are still running alotta the stuff McCarthy ran. Rodgers is still holding onto the rock longer than it takes Bob Dole to play a round of golf. Problems are, MVS and Kum don't know how to get open during scramble drill. Sloth CAN'T get open during the drill; just ain't the kung-fu gangsta Jones was. Adams just ain't as quick as Jennings, Cobb and Driver; quickness is important in finding open space. Lazard is not as smart, football-wise, as Nelson, even though the Lizard is half white. J-Mike was a match up nightmare, which Graham no longer is.

Seattle also incorporate the scramble drill into their offense. Metcalf is a rookie, yet he has no problem connecting with Wilson. Metcalf has speed and smarts: perfect for scrambling. Gee, who took a fucking center over Metcalf?

[beveaux1]

This quote is from one of the best articles about the Packers that I have read in a long time:

https://www.greenbaypressgazette.com...ys/2795997001/

Sorry, it is behind a subscription wall. Ryan Wood timed every Rodgers pass attempt in 2019 and 2011, catalogued them in half-second intervals, then grouped them as:

2 seconds or less (quick passes)
2.01 to 4.0 seconds (multiple progressions)
Over 4.0 seconds (extended plays)

He included an interactive graph to look at the primary passing statistical categories, comparing the two seasons statistics in each group, and each group as part of the overall passing game.

I don't agree with every conclusion he made, but the effort put into the data collection and presentation is impressive.

It was a well-researched article. The numbers show what many on this board have seen for the past few years, a tremendous drop-off in the skill that made Rodgers the best QB in the league over an eight year period.

Rodgers believes that the main reason for the massive decline is the WR corps not knowing how to extend their routes, although he does say that he is not physically the same QB as his 28 year old self.
It could also be the change from McCarthy's offense to MLF's offense, but the decline started a few years ago, which appears to somewhat nullify that theory.

One thing it does show. If Rodgers were able to reduce the number of pass plays taking over 4 sec (extended plays), his overall passer rating would rise significantly.

Another thing the article leaves out, does Rodgers extend plays significantly more than other teams? If this is the case, a better WR corps could reduce those attempts due to their ability to get open earlier.

[pbmax]

I haven’t read the article yet, but my sense from watching is that the >4 second offense has been declining as this year has gone along.

But the Rodgers offense, adjustments to routes based on coverages that aren’t in the playbook, is something he is still looking for. He mentioned it two weeks ago about guys running the correct route right into coverage.

[Zool]

If the WRs can’t run the offense, who’s fault is it that it keeps happening? Rodgers should just throw quick and short if that’s what the WRs are good at. Maybe the WRs will just magically get better at something if they keep trying.

[pbmax]

Quick and short only work for so long before the D adjusts, just as they did with Jones as a receiver.

If you are the Chiefs, you overcome this with speed. Not even Adams has that kind of speed.

So far, the big receiver offense has been a mess.

[beveaux1]

Quick and short only work for so long before the D adjusts, just as they did with Jones as a receiver.

If you are the Chiefs, you overcome this with speed. Not even Adams has that kind of speed.

So far, the big receiver offense has been a mess.

The big receiver offense could work, but there still has to be someone besides Adams with the quickness to get in and out of breaks.
Big, long-striding receivers can't get open quickly. MVS, Allison, Kumerow, and Lazard don't have any suddenness. I still wonder why Grant isn't active.

[Zool]

Quick and short only work for so long before the D adjusts, just as they did with Jones as a receiver.

If you are the Chiefs, you overcome this with speed. Not even Adams has that kind of speed.

So far, the big receiver offense has been a mess.

So you blame Glutes.

[pbmax]

So you blame Glutes.

Maybe. Probably. A mismatch between coordinator and GM maybe? Similar to Ted and Capers?

Still don’t know who’s bright idea the large slot receiver was.

However, Pettine had a year to work out what he needed on D and got it.

So we will see.

[Zool]

Maybe. Probably. A mismatch between coordinator and GM maybe? Similar to Ted and Capers?

Still don’t know who’s bright idea the large slot receiver was.

However, Pettine had a year to work out what he needed on D and got it.

So we will see.

I blame either Rodgers, M4, or a combo. Whomever is calling all 7, 8, or 9 on the route tree for all receivers on a given play. So many times an underneath route would be open if they would just call it.

[pbmax]

I blame either Rodgers, M4, or a combo. Whomever is calling all 7, 8, or 9 on the route tree for all receivers on a given play. So many times an underneath route would be open if they would just call it.

I think that has changed over the course of the year. Rodgers almost sounds as if he wants to stop those routes. LaFleur talked about the Lions game like deep was part of the plan.

[texaspackerbacker]

blame? sheeeeesh, we are 13-3 for crying out loud.

[call_me_ishmael]

Different offense. Rodgers has evolved into a better field general and less of a gun slinger

I like this offense

But the numbers suggest he is running the offense *less* than in years past. Too many non-effective extended plays.

[call_me_ishmael]

Still don’t know who’s bright idea the large slot receiver was.

Heh, I've been wondering this for a couple years now. What's with the infatuation with big 6'3"+ receivers? I, personally, prefer smaller, quicker guys. Why? I dunno, just do. I hope we can add a few wideouts that can win on skill and technique of excellent route running vs physical size/gifts.

[Joemailman]

Heh, I've been wondering this for a couple years now. What's with the infatuation with big 6'3"+ receivers? I, personally, prefer smaller, quicker guys. Why? I dunno, just do. I hope we can add a few wideouts that can win on skill and technique of excellent route running vs physical size/gifts.

I think you'll see this. A first year coach has to pretty much coach the guys he's got. I think you'll see Gutey draft a couple quicker guys. It's why I've been pushing Jalen Reagor of TCU.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles...mock-draft-4.0

30.

Packers
Jalen Reagor
WR, TCU
The Green Bay Packers have plenty of size at wide receiver and offer some notable speed as well. But what about short-area quickness and run after catch skills? Jalen Reagor offers a different dynamic to the Packers' offense and will help further stress opposing defenses in trying to contain Matt LeFleur's passing attack in the NFC North.