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Thread: 2016 Draft

  1. #161
    Moose Rat HOFer woodbuck27's Avatar
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    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-all-the-moves

    2016 NFL Draft trade tracker: Details of all the moves

    NFL.com

    Published: April 28, 2016 at 06:31 p.m. Updated: April 30, 2016 at 07:12 p.m.

    711 Likes | 35 Comments
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  2. #162
    This is total nerd stuff, but I thought it would be fun to see how my rankings did compared to CBS, Scott Wright's Draft Countdown, Todd McShay, Mel Kiper, and Bob McGinn. I wanted to focus on the positions where I watched at least three game films of every prospect, where possible (some guys didn't have three games of film for me to watch, so I had to go off highlights). I did this at QB, RB, WR, and TE. I watched quite a few games where draftable OL went up against draftable DL (for example, I watched Ronnie Stanley against Clemson and Ohio State; Jason Spriggs vs. Ohio State and Michigan State) and a few games where draftable WRs went up against draftable CBs (for example, I watched William Jackson vs. Temple and Robby Anderson; Eric Murray and Briean Boddy-Calhoun vs. TCU). With a 10 day trip to Kenya this month, I didn't have time to concentrate on LBs and safeties much. I did read multiple scouting reports on every player I evaluated and had their testing numbers, but it's not the same as actually being able to watch the film.

    What I did is took every player drafted and took the difference between what number they were drafted at for their position vs. where each had the player ranked. The final results:

    Me (392), Consensus (441), CBS (442), Mel Kiper (454), Todd McShay (477), Scott Wright (522)

    To be fair, McGinn beat me at quite a few positions, but he didn't rank enough WRs for me to include him in this sample. Across all of the positions that McGinn ranked enough players (all but WR and CB) the final rankings were:

    Consensus (500), Bob McGinn (504), me (529), CBS (542), Scott Wright (547), Mel Kiper (571), Todd McShay (586)

    Taking McGinn out, across all positions the final results were:

    Consensus (992), me (997), Mel Kiper (1064), CBS (1074), Scott Wright (1086), Todd McShay (1113)

    I had it won until I got to CB, but I did terrible with my CB rankings. Maurice Canady and Kalan Reed were two guys I liked, but they got drafted late and it ruined my score. Wish I could have gotten to all of the positions because it would have been fun to see how this shook out.

    At each position:

    QB: Consensus (28), Bob McGinn (30), me (35), Mel Kiper (37), CBS (38), Scott Wright (39), Todd McShay (41)
    RB: Bob McGinn (63), me (70), CBS (72), Mel Kiper (74), Consensus (74), Todd McShay (74), Scott Wright (87)
    WR: Me (253), CBS (295), Mel Kiper (299), Consensus (306), Todd McShay (322), Scott Wright (358)
    TE: Bob McGinn (28), Consensus (33), me (34), CBS (37), Scott Wright (38), Todd McShay (40), Mel Kiper (44)
    OL: Bob McGinn (97), Consensus (97), Scott Wright (104), me (107), Mel Kiper (107), CBS (108), Todd McShay (120)
    DL: Scott Wright (70), Consensus (77), me (86), Todd McShay (87), CBS (94), Bob McGinn (97), Mel Kiper (97)
    LB: Bob McGinn (134), Consensus (135), CBS (140), Todd McShay (140), me (145), Mel Kiper (146), Scott Wright (147)
    CB: Scott Wright (181), Consensus (186), Mel Kiper (194), Todd McShay (205), me (215), CBS (237) -- no Bob McGinn, this killed me and there were a lot of points to be had here
    S: Me (52), CBS (53), Consensus (56), Bob McGinn (56), Scott Wright (62), Mel Kiper (66), Todd McShay (84)
    Last edited by HarveyWallbangers; 05-01-2016 at 02:00 AM.
    "There's a lot of interest in the draft. It's great. But quite frankly, most of the people that are commenting on it don't know anything about what they are talking about."--Ted Thompson

  3. #163
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  4. #164
    Roadkill Rat HOFer mraynrand's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HarveyWallbangers View Post
    With a 10 day trip to Kenya this month, ...
    You teach any advanced competitive game theory?

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  5. #165
    Moose Rat HOFer woodbuck27's Avatar
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    Mike McCarthy recaps Green Bay Packers draft

    Brian Jones - Apr 30, 5:41 PM

    http://gnb.247sports.com/Bolt/Mike-M...raft--45109383

    " ...Green Bay Packers head coach Mike McCarthy was available to the media as soon as the 2016 NFL Draft was done, and one of the things that stood out for him was the additions of two offensive tackles Jason Spriggs and Kyle Murphy.

    “There's a desire to get bigger,” McCarthy said via Lori Nickel of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. “We've accomplished that. I look at the draft board like a game plan - you need to stick to it. Stay true to the board - but you can never have enough big men. It's a big man's game. Challenges during the season, you have to make sure you take care of things up front.” .."


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  6. #166
    Neo Rat HOFer Fritz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by woodbuck27 View Post
    Mike McCarthy recaps Green Bay Packers draft

    Brian Jones - Apr 30, 5:41 PM

    http://gnb.247sports.com/Bolt/Mike-M...raft--45109383

    " ...Green Bay Packers head coach Mike McCarthy was available to the media as soon as the 2016 NFL Draft was done, and one of the things that stood out for him was the additions of two offensive tackles Jason Spriggs and Kyle Murphy.

    “There's a desire to get bigger,” McCarthy said
    via Lori Nickel of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. “We've accomplished that. I look at the draft board like a game plan - you need to stick to it. Stay true to the board - but you can never have enough big men. It's a big man's game. Challenges during the season, you have to make sure you take care of things up front.” .."


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  7. #167
    Andrew Luck ‏@FauxAndyLuck 58m58 minutes ago

    Beth,

    There was a draft. President Grigson added many large infantrymen, but my kidneys still ache.

    Your obedient servant,
    Andrew


    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  8. #168
    Trouble by the oxford comma and possibly with math.

    JS Comments ‏@JSComments 2h2 hours ago
    Letting Hayward go, not signing Mike Neal and keeping Nick Perry is just one of the reason this team will never sniff a Super Bowl under TT
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  9. #169
    Though I'd look back and throw out what the draft would have looked like for the Packers if I were running it. I tried to exclude hindsight as much as I could.

    Round 1 (27) - DT Vernon Butler, Louisiana Tech (went #31). I had Jarran Reed, Vernon Butler, and Kenny Clark ranked similarly, but for what I thought the Packers needed I would have gone with Butler.
    Round 2 (48) - OT Jason Spriggs, Indiana (48). He was the top player on my board, and I did have an end of round 1 value on him, so I would have endorsed the trade up.
    Round 3 (88) - ILB Joshua Perry, Ohio State (102)
    Round 4 (131) - RB Devontae Booker, Utah (136)
    Round 4 (137) - OG Connor McGovern, Missouri (144)
    Round 5 (163) - TE Jerrell Adams, South Carolina (184)
    Round 6 (200) - CB Maurice Canady, Virginia (209)
    "There's a lot of interest in the draft. It's great. But quite frankly, most of the people that are commenting on it don't know anything about what they are talking about."--Ted Thompson

  10. #170
    Opa Rat HOFer Freak Out's Avatar
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    I'd be good with that. Really like Booker.
    C.H.U.D.

  11. #171
    Skeptical Rat HOFer wist43's Avatar
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    I've been hemming and hawing on this draft... don't know what to think of it. Guess I'll give it a C b/c I'm not much committed either way.

    The best pick is Spriggs... he's not strong enough now, but I think a year or two in an NFL training program and he'll be fine. He's got great feet, and pretty good hands. He as to solve that inside counter move - he'll need a lot of coaching to get over that.

    I think Martinez has a chance to be our nickel and dime ILB... not b/c he's a super athlete and can get sideline to sideline, but b/c he's got a high football IQ, and very good instincts. Combine that with okay speed, certainly not great, but okay, and I think he'll be a big improvement over Ryan and Barrington - neither of whom should be on the field in subpackages.

    I like Davis and Murphy as projects. Murphy will definitely make the roster... not sure about Davis with the numbers game, but he has speed and that is something we desperately need.

    Have no idea what to do with Lowry and Fackrell. Lowry can be a rotation guy at DE; and I don't think Fackrell is going to make anyone forget about Peppers when he leaves after next season.

    Don't think Clark has enough athleticism to have any impact on passing downs - unless it's just cleaning up with garbage sacks when the QB is forced to step up. He should be okay against the run.

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    This draft doesn't do much to help us this year, except that Spriggs will probably be the first one off the bench when an OL goes down, and Martinez will hopefully make the mess at ILB a little less messy. The rest of the guys are developmental guys, rolls players, etc... no impact players.

    I doubt we will be the favorite to win the division, we didn't win it last year, and the Vikings definitely had a better offseason than we did. I seriously doubt we'll make a serious push for the SB. Tick-tock.
    wist

  12. #172
    Roadkill Rat HOFer mraynrand's Avatar
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  13. #173
    Analytics and the Draft: What they think we should know https://statsbylopez.com/2016/05/02/...stand-in-2016/

    1. In an efficient market, trading of draft picks would yield similar value. In fact, the team that trades down and gets more picks is more successful. Lesson: don't trade up, trade down.

    2. Top picks in the draft are more expensive but yield less ROI. Best spot is end of first, beginning of second. Though new CBA has lessened this.

    3. Success in drafting players is not sustained year over year. Meaning its largely luck and guesswork.

    4. Sunk cost fallacy makes evaluation of results problematic. Round 1 picks receive much more playing time than other players, regardless of performance. However, some positions (O Line) are tough to measure.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

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