Quote Originally Posted by Maxie the Taxi View Post
It has everything to do with judgement and, if they are picked in the 1st round, there are no guarantees regarding performance.
It is not quite that much of a crapshoot. Not only are the odds better of getting a better player the higher you go, several other things happen.

You get reps in practice and games much earlier and have a longer term contract. As problematic as that can be for players who outperform it early, it also means a player gets a minimum of four years to demonstrate he was worth the pick. The contract can also crowd out competition at the position.

All these things add up to an increased likelihood of success.

But as you say, the first round is still 50/50 and not many have cracked to code to beat that number unless you draft in the top 15 several years in a row (49ers).