2016 Draft

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nm

[woodbuck27]

Here's something I found that's kind of interesting. Granted it's based on a small sample size, (Drafts between 2000 and 2007) and it involves players making the Pro-Bowl which can be bullshit because of players being selected based on name or team recognition.

Average number of Pro Bowl selections per year by round drafted from 2000 - 2007 (8 yrs.)

1st Rd. - 12.5 per year
2nd Rd. - 5.5 per year
3rd Rd. - 2.0 per year
4th Rd. - 2.375 per year
5th Rd. - 1.625 per year
6th Rd. - 1.5 per year
7th Rd. - 0.75 per year

UDFA's - 4.125 per year

UDFA's - 4.125 per year = Impressive and surprizing !

I hope the Packer Scouting Dept. is busting it's ass ....scouting.

[Upnorth]

The pro bowl is pointless for a measure of success since fans are allowed to vote now. Plus I have 12 QB's could say they were selected for the pb in 2015.

[SMBASS]

The pro bowl is pointless for a measure of success since fans are allowed to vote now. Plus I have 12 QB's could say they were selected for the pb in 2015.

Yep...absolutely agree. Not sure what the objective measuring stick for, "success" would be anymore. Hall of Fame players is far too small of a sample size and, "starts" doesn't mean much because a lot of marginal players rack up starts on pretty crappy teams.

[esoxx]

The NFL All Pro team is the measuring stick.

[Maxie the Taxi]

It is not quite that much of a crapshoot. Not only are the odds better of getting a better player the higher you go, several other things happen.

You get reps in practice and games much earlier and have a longer term contract. As problematic as that can be for players who outperform it early, it also means a player gets a minimum of four years to demonstrate he was worth the pick. The contract can also crowd out competition at the position.

All these things add up to an increased likelihood of success.

But as you say, the first round is still 50/50 and not many have cracked to code to beat that number unless you draft in the top 15 several years in a row (49ers).

All true.

I guess my point is there is really no objective criteria. It's all judgement of team GM's and such. So in that sense there is no guarantee.

[pbmax]

The NFL All Pro team is the measuring stick.

Its too restrictive. So few players get on the team that its useless for most players in the League. And its useless for most players in the draft, though you could probably use it to track success in rounds over time.

The Pro-Football-Reference AV measurement uses Pro Bowls but adds other factors. And the pick value chart I linked to earlier uses those values to tell people how valuable each pick yet.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=466

[Patler]

Here's something I found that's kind of interesting. Granted it's based on a small sample size, (Drafts between 2000 and 2007) and it involves players making the Pro-Bowl which can be bullshit because of players being selected based on name or team recognition.

Average number of Pro Bowl selections per year by round drafted from 2000 - 2007 (8 yrs.)

1st Rd. - 12.5 per year
2nd Rd. - 5.5 per year
3rd Rd. - 2.0 per year
4th Rd. - 2.375 per year
5th Rd. - 1.625 per year
6th Rd. - 1.5 per year
7th Rd. - 0.75 per year

UDFA's - 4.125 per year

UDFA's - 4.125 per year = Impressive and surprizing !

I hope the Packer Scouting Dept. is busting it's ass ....scouting.

Not real surprising about the undrafted players. Even with compensatory picks, the 3-7th rounds include an average of less than 40 players each. League wide, there might be 4-500 undrafted players each year that come to camp.

[SMBASS]

Not real surprising about the undrafted players. Even with compensatory picks, the 3-7th rounds include an average of less than 40 players each. League wide, there might be 4-500 undrafted players each year that come to camp.

You're right Patler. With the sheer number of UDFA's that are invited to camps some of them are bound to be overlooked during the 7 round draft process and then stick with a team once they put the pads on and have an opportunity to prove that they're real football players. I just think it proves that some players have attributes and intangibles that the evaluators simply can't pin down or they would have been taken during the draft by someone. I also think it shows how inexact the evaluation process is once you get past most of the obviously good players in the first couple of rounds.

[Patler]

Your right Patler. With the sheer number of UDFA's that are invited to camps some of them are bound to be overlooked during the 7 round draft process and then stick with a team once they put the pads on and have an opportunity to prove that they're real football players. I just think it proves that some players have attributes and intangibles that the evaluators simply can't pin down or they would have been taken during the draft by someone. I also think it shows how inexact the evaluation process is once you get past most of the obviously good players in the first couple of rounds.

Agreed. I've never thought there was a lot of difference between the better undrafted players, and the 6-7th round. The last few rounds are useful in making sure you get a couple that you are most interested in, perhaps at positions of greater need. With the undrafted players, you often have competition for their signature on a contract. There are hundreds of relatively similarly talented players, and it is impossible to accurately predict which will adapt, mature, develop the best once they hit the NFL.

[woodbuck27]

The NFL All Pro team is the measuring stick.

Yup......and I'd add playoff experience.

How often does a player contribute to his teams overall success.

[pbmax]

Mockup of all the mocks, with percentages. Updated through today, with mocks from March 21 to April 17. So some of this data is a month old.
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-dra...encies-experts

1. Rams - Wentz, Lynch, Treadwell, Goff (in descending order of percentage, 10% threshold after first 3)

2. Browns - Goff, Wentz, Ramsey

3. Chargers - Ramsey, Tunsil, Buckner

4. Cowboys - Bosa, Ramsey, Jack

5. Jags - Jack, Ramsey, Bosa

6. Ravens - Buckner, Bosa, Stanley, Tunsil/Jack

7. 49ers - Goff, Buckner, Wentz, Lynch

8. Eagles - Elliot, Hargreaves, Stanley

9. Tampa - Hargreaves, Lawson, Buckner, Bosa

10. Giants - Stanley, Elliot, Hargreaves/Conklin

11. Bears - Floyd, Stanley, Lawson (literally everyone is listed for the Bears)

12. Saints - Rankins, Robinson, Lawson

13. Dolphins - Elliot, Jackson, Hargreaves, Lee/Apple, Alexander

14. Raiders - Apple, Ragland, Conklin

15. Tennessee - Tunsil, Conklin, Decker

16. Lions - Decker/Treadwell, Conklin (Other leads with over 20%)

[pbmax]

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-dra...encies-experts

17. Falcons - Lee, Lawson, Ragland, Floyd

18. Colts - Decker, Spence, Kelly, Conklin

19. Bills - Nkemdiche, Spence/Reed

20. Jets - Floyd, Lynch, Spence/Lee

21. Washington - Reed, Ragland/Billings, Robinson

22. Texans - Coleman, Doctson, Fuller, Treadwell

23. Vikings - Doctson, Treadwell, Fuller, Coleman

24. Bengals - Coleman, Doctson, Fuller

25. Steelers - Jackson, Alexander, Apple

26. Seahawks - Others (37%), Spriggs, Decker, Ifedi

27. Packers - Others (25%), Reed, Ragland, Billings

28. Chiefs - Others (37%), Jackson, Alexander, Apple

29. Cardinals - Others (38%), Kelly, Spence/Nkemdiche

30. Panthers - Others (25%), Ogbah, Spriggs, Dodd

31. Broncos - Others (27%), Lynch, Cook, Nkemdiche

Huh. No Patriots pick. Wonder what happened?

[pbmax]

Kiper at ESPN for the Packers: http://espn.go.com/blog/green-bay-pa...ft-for-packers

Here are his picks for the Packers:

First round (No. 27 overall): Kamalei Correa, OLB, Boise State

Second round (No. 57): Jerell Adams, TE, South Carolina

Third round (No. 88): Maurice Canady, CB, Virginia

[pbmax]

McShay: http://espn.go.com/blog/green-bay-pa...-packers-draft

Round 1 (No. 27 overall): Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech

Round 2 (No. 57): Nick Vannett, TE, Ohio State

Round 3 (No. 88): B.J. Goodson, ILB, Clemson


He has the TE even though this mock is post FA signing Cook.

[Carolina_Packer]

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-dra...encies-experts

Huh. No Patriots pick. Wonder what happened?

O2 Brute!

[Maxie the Taxi]

McShay: http://espn.go.com/blog/green-bay-pa...-packers-draft

Round 1 (No. 27 overall): Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech

Round 2 (No. 57): Nick Vannett, TE, Ohio State

Round 3 (No. 88): B.J. Goodson, ILB, Clemson


He has the TE even though this mock is post FA signing Cook.

McShay's picks are crazy, with the exception of Butler. Kiper's picks are shocking. Not even close IMO (even given the TT bizarro factor.)

[pbmax]

Does this represent the best path forward, or does it just demonstrate the desperate desire to improve a team short term?




Scott Kacsmar ‏@FO_ScottKacsmar 14h14 hours ago
Give me the group on the left every time. @Cianaf

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Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet 3m3 minutes ago
#Panthers GM Dave Gettleman: "I don't subscribe to the window theory. I don't subscribe to the one-player-away theory."

On releasing Josh Norman.

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Brian Burke ‏@bburkeESPN 8m8 minutes ago
I'm often asked what is the NFL's equivalent of undervalued assets, a la high-OBA batters in Moneyball. Answer is *future* draft picks.