2020 NFL DRAFT WIDE RECEIVER TIERS

[Deputy Nutz]

Why Tiers?
Player tiers is a way to group players at the same position with similar production. Putting players into tiers could be one of the most useful techniques used to understand player value. Tiers give you a sense of how many players are available for a particular position, and at what level. Simply put I am not splitting hairs on how I think is better or high ranked.

Wide Receiver Tiers - After reading about 100 analysis on receivers the biggest negative you will always see is how they handle press coverage. I find it ironic as you also see negatives on the players at the corners spot for not being able to play press at the college level. Anyways, all rookies will basically struggle against press their rookie year. The ones that figure it out the fastest will have the best chance to contribute in a big way in 2020.

Tier 1: The Elites - First round of the 2020 Draft.
I had a few guys in this tier last year that fell into the second round, but regardless this group in 2019 produced in the NFL. The 2020 group has remained pretty consistent since the college football season ended. After the draft I was waiting for someone to jump into this tier.

Henry Ruggs III Alabama, 5’11” 188 - He offers something that nobody else in this tier or any other tier has, and that is elite, top of the food chain speed. He doesn’t have the frame or size of some but he is explosive with a 42” vertical jump at the Combine. What I like about Ruggs is his ability to use his speed on crossing routes by creating the separation in man coverage and by also out running the zone across the middle of the field. Large hands are on display while catching the ball in traffic and away from his body. Ruggs will have to get better fighting off press coverage and breaking free of physical corners.

CeeDee Lamb Oklahoma, 6’2” 198 - Lamb could be the complete package in the NFL. Some might think he will slip in the draft because of his average 40 time, but in reality it shouldn’t impact his status as one of the elite receivers in this draft. He is a threat at all three receiver positions and has the experience and has crafted his skills to attack all levels of the football field. He does a good job at working back to the QB on broken plays and finding the soft spots in the zone. Lamb could struggle adjusting to an NFL offense and playing against the elite of the elites in the NFL, as the Big 12 is not known for defense. He will have to refine his game and take away the wasted motion in his route running.

Jerry Jeudy Alabama 6’1” 193 - Jeudy is a polished receiver that works his routes extremely well, to the point where he is at the top of this draft class in his ability to run all his routes with polish and speed. Quick acceleration helps him create seperation from even the best college corners. Juedy could become a viable All Pro type receiver at the next level if he adds some muscle mass to his frame while keeping his quickness. If Jeudy improves his ability to go after deep balls he should be an elite threat at every level of the field.

Justin Jefferson LSU 6’2” 202 - Better than the rest at contested catches and in 50/50 balls than the other three receivers, but might not be as polish of a route runner as the others in the top tier. It might be a stretch to list Jefferson in the top tier but his production in his last year at LSU can’t be overlooked. The all out spread attack that LSU implemented this year might have been part of his offensive explosion. His combine answered some questions about his athletic ability and speed.

[Deputy Nutz]

Tier 2 - Possible 1st round through second round in 2020 NFL Draft. This group has it’s base in consistency. These are quality kids that might just be lacking either a touch of that elite athleticism or production to be considered a sure fire first round pick.

Denzel Mims Baylor, 6’3” 205 - One of the most dynamic and biggest athletes at the wide receiver position in this draft. Mims has in most scenarios moved himself into the first with a fantastic combine. The biggest question mark of Mims’s game is the offense that he played in at Baylor. He caught a lot of quick screens and jailbreak screens in this offense where they utilized Mims big play ability in open space. He has the size, speed and jumping ability to attack defensive backs and put them in conflict. Mims could be more physical with defensive backs and with contested catches, he needs to be more sudden off the snap and get into his routes faster with more urgency. Watching film of Mims I don’t necessarily agree with the NFL.com analysis on his hands and drops of contested throws.

Jalen Reagor TCU, 5’11” 205 - Reagor’s combine neither helped him or hurt him as his 40 time was above average, his vertical jump was elite, and his agility drills were below average. Stocky receiver that works hard to make plays for himself. Comparisons to Deebo Samuels are accurate when he has the ball in his hands. He has the route running ability and the athletic ability to attack the whole field. At times he needs to work on his composure, and like most college receivers he will need to work on defeating press coverage more consistency.

Laviska Shenault Colorado 6’1” 227 - Shenault is built thick and although never expected to run a blazing 40 I think teams still want a receiver his size running in the 4.4s for the forty if they are going to extend a first round pick on a player. He will use his size to assault defensive backs that press him, but at times he will get careless. Shenault needs to be better with his route running and double moves. He is one of the top receivers in this class with attacking the ball in 50/50 situations, and making tough catches. He will sell out for passes, and when trying to gain extra yards with the ball in his hands. Needs to get better as a blocker.

Donovan Peoples-Jones Michigan 6’2” 212 - Probably the best overall athlete in this class especially when you consider his size and weight. His explosiveness was on hand at the combine when he jumped 44.5 inches in the vertical and 139 inches in the broad jump. Much like the current trend of Michigan players he has the physical traits and athleticism that should indicate dominance at the college level, but the production and play on the field never materialize. Peoples-Jones can use the lack of identity of the Wolverines’ offense as a legit reason why his production wasn’t higher, but he has some ownership in it all being the athlete that he is. He could very easily be viewed as the offensive version of Rashan Gary. Because of his successful combine he will be drafted higher than he probably should be.

[Deputy Nutz]

Tier 3 - These are guys that have an outside chance of being a 1st round pick, but could also be early to mid 3rd round picks. Receiver is a deep group and teams will try to wait on talent as the picks go past.

Micheal Pittman USC, 6’4” 223 - Big framed receiver that is an easy target for QBs. I think he showed a little more than just being a possession receiver at the next level with a very solid 4.52 in the forty. For a player his size that is more than an adequate number. His agility scores were also very good especially for a player his size. He caught over 100 balls in his last season so you know that he has viable hands. Pittman does a nice going in and out of breaks, he seems to know how to work zone coverages to find openings. Also, he doesn’t need separation to get open. Even at 6 '4 `` 223 pounds I would like to see him as a more physical receiver with press coverage. Pittman could easily be a 1st round draft pick as the end of April rolls around.

Brandon Aiyuk ASU, 6’ 205 - highly productive at ASU based on utilizing his athleticism. He does need to get better at understanding the basics of running routes, even though he is dynamic on his cuts and breaks. Currently I would rate him as an above average athlete, but just an average skill receiver. He will need work to make a significant impact as a rookie in 2020.

Tee Higgins Clemson 6’4” 216 - Higgins is built like a wingman on the basketball court, he is long and is at his best when he needs to go up and catch the ball. He is a glider and long strider. He is the type of receiver that lacks a bit of polish because he has never had to be perfect to dominate a game. His biggest issue is that for his size he can get pushed around and beat up by physical corners. He was worked over quite a bit by the Ohio St defense in the playoff game. He also didn’t run at the combine or work out.

KJ Hamler Penn St. 5’9”178 - A bit heavier than what was thought. Still not many receivers dominate the game at 5’9” 178 pounds and it will be a negative he can’t overcome. Also, not working out at the combine leaves a bunch of unanswered questions about his speed and quickness which he will most definitely need to rely on if he will contribute at the next level. He is a fiesty downfield blocker. His film shows his quickness in his route running and his stops and starts. Struggles to gain separation on deeper routes and bigger defensive backs can shield him from the ball.

Chase Claypool Notre Dame, 6’4” 238 - The guy is built like a tight end but showed the speed of an elite receiver running a 4.42 at the combine. He offers a lot to a team that needs a downfield threat that can physically dominate 50/50 balls, a receiver that will contribute right away to special teams, and maybe most important will become a dominant blocker in the NFL. At times he will struggle getting in and out of breaks with efficiency, and struggles with being a natural pass catcher.

Van Jefferson Florida 6’1” 200 - He did not run at the combine, but it will be his consistency and attention to detail that will make him an impactful player at the next level. He is competitive and a son of a former NFL receiver and current NFL coach. Jefferson relies on technique to catch passes and create separation from defensive backs. It will be interesting to see his pro day as he is relatively old at 24 years old for a rookie.

[Deputy Nutz]

Tier 4
I think there are some diamonds in this tier but teams will have to start risking mid round draft picks on guys with questionable combine numbers, or a lack of production on the field. Some of these guys have not run at the combine so after their pro day they could easily move up a tier or two. There might a one or two second round draft picks in this group, but in reality they are all late day 2 picks to day 3 picks.

Devin Duvernay Texas, 5’10” 200 - Fantastic athlete with a 4.39 forty yard dash. The production is also there as he caught 103 balls for over 1300 yards as a senior. Why is he in Tier 4? It is what happens when Duvernay doesn’t have the ball in his hands as he is not going to win consistently enough on contested passes, and isn’t a great route runner. He will disappear on film if the offense isn’t purposively working on getting him the football.

Tyler Johnson Minnesota, 6’1” 205 - one word to describe Johnson would be ''smooth ``. Johnson is a typical grinder who lacks that explosiveness on film, but has solid hands especially in traffic. He is a leader, who will go over the middle and sacrifice himself for his teammates. Johnson has really good body control, but he will lack the elite athleticism that will make him a priority in earlier rounds. He did not run at the combine.

Quez Watkins Southern Miss, 5’10” 185 - The guy can fly, he ran a 4.35 at the combine which is always numbers you want from the position, but the questions start to come into play when you look at his agility numbers which were below average at the combine. This usually leads to having tight hips and in some cases a lack of flexibility throughout the body. He does a decent job of working vertically on his routes, and working deep crosses and posts. Watkins biggest inconsistency is getting off of press coverage.

Antonio Gandy-Golden Liberty, 6’4” 223 - Big strong receiver that might end up making the transition to tight end hybrid type player. His speed and agility are below average for the position, but that doesn’t stop him from being a big play threat. His lack of competition playing mid major ball will be a concern from some scouts, but I see no real issues with his route running abilities, seems to put all the little extras into his cuts and breaks that you like to see. Scouts will say he is a work in progress because he is coming from a small school.

John Hightower Boise St. 5’10” 185 - All the combine numbers are above average, and when he is in clean air he is a real threat to be a game breaker. His trouble starts when he has to compete for 50/50 balls. He needs to get stronger, and do a better job tracking the ball.

Quartney Davis Texas A&M 5’10” 201 - Slot like receiver with a good build but his slightly below average combine didn’t do him any favors. Production at A&M wasn’t great. He has quality hands especially in traffic and he does a nice job of turning his shoulders up field and finding green grass after the catch.

Quintez Cephus Wisconsin 6’1” 202 - Big strong receiver that made some of the toughest contested catches in college football last year. Much as been made over his legal situation in 2018, but Cephus proved his innocence for hyped up sexual assault charges. Cephus’s biggest concern is his truly poor 40 time at the combine which if he can’t improve on a 4.73 at his pro day he might seriously go on drafted. Cephus is an aggressive blocker in the run game, an above average route runner, and although he will have an occasional drop his hands are solid.


Isaiah Hodges Oregon St. 6’4” 210 - Big body receiver that has above average ball skills and will attempt to high point the football. He has good instincts and his route running is also NFL caliber, but he lacks the elite speed to be a top tier draft pick, but for a player that 6’4” he has above average agility with 7.01 three cone, and 4.12 short shuttle.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

What the fuck? 4.73? That's even slower than the Sloth.

[SudsMcBucky]

What the fuck? 4.73? That's even slower than the Sloth.

Right on que.

[mraynrand]

Right on que.

Not really. He's a little slow on this one - 4.73 slow. Cephus' 40 time has been reported in other threads.

[mraynrand]

Cephus is a rich man's Geronimo Allison.

[mraynrand]

Why Teers?

Maab Deep

[mraynrand]

Ruggs is being talked up as the Tyreek Hill of the draft. Some are even speculating he might fall to New Orleans. But they already have their Hill to die for/on.

[run pMc]

Cephus is a rich man's Geronimo Allison.

LOL

[run pMc]

Nutz - thanks for putting this together. I have to say I agree with you re: use of tiers.
Generally agree with your assessments of the players and their placement in the tiers, although I think a few of them will move up/down based on pro days, rumors, scheme fits, etc. Tier 3 is a tricky one because as you say some could be R1 picks but could also last into R3.

I also think this is a deep enough WR draft where you could have a sizeable Tier 5 for players who will should drafted but only on Day 3.

[texaspackerbacker]

It's hard to believe four WRs will be drafted ahead of the Packers at 30. Thus, we might be able to get one of the top tier - maybe Ruggs. I really would not want the Packers to use a first round pick on the other three. I think my guy, Duvernay, ought to be in a higher tier than 4. Hopefully we could get him about the 3rd round - if teams see him as low as Nutz sees him.

[hoosier]

Turdelle Owens was the best ever at handling press coverage.

[mraynrand]

Turdelle Owens was the best ever at handling press coverage.

He was the 'Woodbuck' of wide receivers - he made the press watch as he did his crunches.

[Deputy Nutz]

It's hard to believe four WRs will be drafted ahead of the Packers at 30. Thus, we might be able to get one of the top tier - maybe Ruggs. I really would not want the Packers to use a first round pick on the other three. I think my guy, Duvernay, ought to be in a higher tier than 4. Hopefully we could get him about the 3rd round - if teams see him as low as Nutz sees him.

Tier 4 is still a pretty good group of receivers. I honestly could have put Duvernay in Tier 3, but I would like to see more effort into blocking, especially how much of a competitor he is. I absolutely love this guy after the catch.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Not really. He's a little slow on this one - 4.73 slow. Cephus' 40 time has been reported in other threads.

Sorry for being clueless, for, I was a bit busy debunking Tex and 31 in FYI. And I don't start researching for my annual thread, "My Mastery Mockery of a Draft" til free agency starts.

4.73 would be a fast time for Josh Jones, the Yokozuna making Harrell hard, but that's slow as fuck for a WR. Avoid Cephus like the plague.

Btw, Suds, I was gonna joke about Cephus' rape ordeal. However, just watched "Brian Banks" on the Hulu. So I won't. Good flick.

[GB-Brandon]

Cephus is a rich man's Geronimo Allison.

Which would be an improvement overall.

[Deputy Nutz]

Ruggs is being talked up as the Tyreek Hill of the draft. Some are even speculating he might fall to New Orleans. But they already have their Hill to die for/on.

He is my top receiver in this draft. He is bigger than Hill and timed faster in the 40.

[texaspackerbacker]

He is my top receiver in this draft. He is bigger than Hill and timed faster in the 40.

I agree with you on that, and at the same time, I suspect your other 3 tier one WRs will go earlier, so hopefully he ends up a Packer.

I should have said my earlier post, Nutz, I also am thankful for the work you put in with these position group rankings. It's at least as good as what people do for pay.