Read This, Be Smarter: The Undoing of McCarthy's Offense

[Maxie the Taxi]

Hey pb, here's another great article with supporting film that I don't know if you've seen: http://www.acmepackingcompany.com/20...ocket-presence

The title of the article says Arod is "playing scared." I think that's BS, but the play discussed does show Arod's habit of bailing into scramble mode to make a big play at the expense of taking what the defense gives you: a sure bet 1st down.

The irony is if Arod would be thrown the ball short to Davis the odds are real good that Davis would have taken it to the house! The article also gives credit to Stubby for these types of plays, it's just that we aren't seeing enough of them (Davis played five snaps).

[red]

Great article on. A lot of what was said was some of the some stuff we've been mentioning

To me, its an over reliance on the home run

To me its all on fat Mike. It's either the system he wants, or its because he has little girl balls, And is letting a rod do whatever he wants

The most shocking thing is that we're 6-8 over the last 14 games, not good enough

[pbmax]

Wilde on 2014's Packer Offense which was near the beginning of this change. It also describes the other offense being run in 2011. I remember the no-huddle development in three phases.

I remember two distinct attempts at going higher tempo that didn't pan out. I think the first petered out before camp ended. The second did not work but the third produced a record year if I recall. I might be mistaking talk of tempo in that first year with the no huddle concepts we are seeing now. So today's offensive iteration might have taken two years to launch.

It worked for a year, it ain't working now. One thing to remember, is that trouble with man under, Cover 2 was present before this offense (think KC game in 15-1 season or various games versus San Fran). So its not all scheme, it is some person issues. I think in some way, this version of the offense was built to address the difficulty with KC/SanFran and Seattle's D.

But they lost the thread.

http://pro.wauk-am.tritonflex.com/co...6231&is_corp=1

[King Friday]

I haven't looked closely at film but the article seems to suggest the coverages are combining press man with deep safeties. Short stuff doesn't open up unless you have receivers who can beat the jam or pre-snap movement to free receivers up. For whatever reason, that hasn't been happening for quite a while.

The article shows several plays where receivers were clearly open underneath...but Rodgers refused to throw to them, looking for something further downfield before being forced to throw the ball away. That, in a nutshell, is what is wrong with offense. Rodgers refuses to take what the defense is giving him. That is why Tom Brady is an all-time great...and Rodgers is likely a one-and-done pony show in terms of titles. Maybe we can petition Goodell to start investigating Rodgers and get his focus off throwing non-stop 60 yard bombs?

[denverYooper]

Hey pb, here's another great article with supporting film that I don't know if you've seen: http://www.acmepackingcompany.com/20...ocket-presence

The title of the article says Arod is "playing scared." I think that's BS, but the play discussed does show Arod's habit of bailing into scramble mode to make a big play at the expense of taking what the defense gives you: a sure bet 1st down.

The irony is if Arod would be thrown the ball short to Davis the odds are real good that Davis would have taken it to the house! The article also gives credit to Stubby for these types of plays, it's just that we aren't seeing enough of them (Davis played five snaps).

The author does a fine job of describing the play he's chosen but a poor job of supporting the thesis that Rodgers is playing scared. Or at least, he does not connect his hook to his exposition. What is Rodgers scared of? Getting hit? Trusting Davis? Letting another player make the big play? The closest he comes is when he indicates that Rodgers is "frantically" looking for Jordy. That would lead one to think that Rodgers might be scared of throwing to anyone but Jordy.

I suppose they titled it whatever their social media metrics are telling them people are saying, so they shoehorned it in a few places and in the headline to get more clicks.

[Joemailman]

Wilde on 2014's Packer Offense which was near the beginning of this change. It also describes the other offense being run in 2011. I remember the no-huddle development in three phases.

I remember two distinct attempts at going higher tempo that didn't pan out. I think the first petered out before camp ended. The second did not work but the third produced a record year if I recall. I might be mistaking talk of tempo in that first year with the no huddle concepts we are seeing now. So today's offensive iteration might have taken two years to launch.

It worked for a year, it ain't working now. One thing to remember, is that trouble with man under, Cover 2 was present before this offense (think KC game in 15-1 season or various games versus San Fran). So its not all scheme, it is some person issues. I think in some way, this version of the offense was built to address the difficulty with KC/SanFran and Seattle's D.

But they lost the thread.

http://pro.wauk-am.tritonflex.com/co...6231&is_corp=1

Even in 2014, although Rodgers had great stats, I started to have the sense that things weren't working properly. There were many times where they were struggling, but Rodgers would manage to complete a pass to Nelson on the sideline or Cobb over the middle to keep drives alive. Nelson had some incredible catches on 3rd down that year to accomplish it. About 64% of Rodgers' passing yards were to those 2 players.

[pbmax]

Maybe I'm misinterpreting what you're saying PB but I think it's a little over-simplified/dramatic to say the offense is "broken" or "undone."

The offense has become stagnant by becoming overly reliant on the second phase scramble drills, but it can be fixed and it will be through adjustments not a complete overhaul.

As the article says, it makes sense to take advantage of Rodgers' unique ability to scramble and create in the second phase but it can't do that effectively without the first phase threat required to make that as dangerous is it can/should be.

Getting the first-phase threat back requires Rodgers to do less pre-snap adjusting at the line, which is slowing down the offense and allowing defenses to be comfortable disguising and adjusting to Rodgers' adjustments, which defenses can easily diagnose by hand signals (Rodgers pointing to where the pressure is coming from, etc.) and line calls. The adjusting and re-adjusting has gotten out of hand because the defense can adjust easier and quicker than the offense.

So they're in the process of simplifying the offensive reads to pick up the tempo and get the quicker throw timing plays back to keep defenses simpler too and move the chains more consistently. Another big part of the first phase threat they need to recapture that will bring time of possession to their advantage and make second phases of plays the big-play game changers they used to (and should) be is the running game. The slow developing offense has caused the running game to lose its potency.

Here are the adjustments I'm hearing them indicate from what they're saying:

1. Speed up the tempo.
2. Simplify/reduce pre-snap adjustments.
3. Reincorporate quicker release timing plays back into the passing game.
4. Line up and pound it more with Lacy and Starks.

If they can do that effectively, the big-play impact of the second phase isolation game can return because history has shown that it really is hard for defenders to hang on for too long when isolated if those needed adjustments are in place.

Broken doesn't mean irretrievable. The players are still talented and McCarthy is still knowledgeable about offense construction. It needs repairs.

Undone because everything he built toward as he changed the offense after 2012-13 (Wilde points out that the 5 WR groups wasn't around in 2014) has broken down to be ineffective.

My concern centers around this: Whatever they are trying to do is not only not working, the QB is ineffectual and that hurts everything. He is the lynchpin. His holding onto the football is not helping his confidence in the O line (probably does nothing for their confidence either). Bach has many fine traits but he isn't a lock down LT. Griffen put heat on Rodgers several times quite quickly. So they have a chicken and egg situation. Call quicker hits or fix pass blocking?

The answer they publicly suggest is more running (your #4). Which is nice and can setup good down and distance and keep Rodgers healthy, might even slow down the pass rush, but that is not going to change the challenges the pass game faces with the coverages people are going to play.

And this gets to your #3. McCarthy has been calling some quicker opening plays (identified in article) but Rodgers is looking elsewhere. Is this a touchdown to check down problem or is Rodgers on his own there? Given the things the coach has said (and the changes Rodgers and Sitton talked about) I am truly not certain its all the QB. There is no doubt he has made more poor decisions lately, but I suspect his coach is putting him in these situations. McCarthy announced that he wasn't going to design all new plays to get players open, that they went too far in this direction last year. They were going back to fundamentals. Its early, but it doesn't look better this year.

And that gets me to #1. Tempo does no good if you cannot get a long drive assembled because of matchup advantages. Its useless. McCarthy keeps talking about tempo and more plays, more at bats. You cannot do that no matter how fast you play unless you can get first downs. And his offense doesn't produce them anymore. Even when this offense was bombs away, they were high in the League in first downs. Despite all effort to increase tempo, that ability has been downgraded.

[King Friday]

The author does a fine job of describing the play he's chosen but a poor job of supporting the thesis that Rodgers is playing scared.

I'm not sure scared is the right word...but Rodgers too often throws off his back foot and loses accuracy as a result. I think the emphasis should be on the fact that Rodgers is choosing to forego easier passes and certain yards for some reason. Is it because the team values the big play too much? Is it because Rodgers has lost confidence in some way...either with receivers or in pass protection? Is it because MM is the one who really should be called scared...in terms of having the nuts to tell Rodgers to stop playing like a dumbass?

[pbmax]

Chris B. Brown ‏@smartfootball 2h2 hours ago
And I should write about what's wrong with GB's O - though I think it's too early - but I kind of agree that most of the critiques are off

Or we could all be wrong

[King Friday]

Chris B. Brown ‏@smartfootball 2h2 hours ago
And I should write about what's wrong with GB's O - though I think it's too early - but I kind of agree that most of the critiques are off

Or we could all be wrong

This is why I despise Twitter and social media in general. The critiques are so varied at this point that claiming that most are wrong is an incredibly safe statement that will easily be proven correct. This isn't useful information. I also don't get the part of it being too early to discuss offensive woes. We've seen with all the stats that have been thrown out just on this forum that this is almost a full season's worth of games in the making. How is that "too early" to discuss what is happening with the offense?

[pbmax]

This is why I despise Twitter and social media in general. The critiques are so varied at this point that claiming that most are wrong is an incredibly safe statement that will easily be proven correct. This isn't useful information. I also don't get the part of it being too early to discuss offensive woes. We've seen with all the stats that have been thrown out just on this forum that this is almost a full season's worth of games in the making. How is that "too early" to discuss what is happening with the offense?

Twitter critiques, yes, but Brown actually writes pretty authoritatively on the subject of play design and offensive construction.

[Fritz]

Hey pb, here's another great article with supporting film that I don't know if you've seen: http://www.acmepackingcompany.com/20...ocket-presence

The title of the article says Arod is "playing scared." I think that's BS, but the play discussed does show Arod's habit of bailing into scramble mode to make a big play at the expense of taking what the defense gives you: a sure bet 1st down.

The irony is if Arod would be thrown the ball short to Davis the odds are real good that Davis would have taken it to the house! The article also gives credit to Stubby for these types of plays, it's just that we aren't seeing enough of them (Davis played five snaps).

As closely scrutinized as the games and players are now on television, a quick check of the "sphincter cam" should tell the world whether Arod is playing scared or not.

[Packers4Glory]

I think they used to use more timing plays to set up this homerun style of offense. Now it is all homerun style and that is not sustainable.

Also this is a great find, thanks!

pretty much.

we also used to be good a PAP and spreading out the defense and running the ball on quick hitters, not these long drawn out pitches w/ slow backs.

[hoosier]

As closely scrutinized as the games and players are now on television, a quick check of the "sphincter cam" should tell the world whether Arod is playing scared or not.

That is not a camera shot, it can only be shown as a a NextGen stat: the external anal sphincter contraction coefficient, or EASC.

[denverYooper]

Twitter critiques, yes, but Brown actually writes pretty authoritatively on the subject of play design and offensive construction.

Agreed. He's got an extensive knowledge of most offensive systems past and present.

It's interesting that he says it's too early.

[channtheman]

Did we not run a more timing oriented offense when we had better receivers, Jennings, Jones, Jordy, Driver? Now, we have arguably worse receivers and expect more of them. How can Tom Brady miss a season or a few games and you not even notice? Because of the timing take the easy play offense. Flashy? No, but it sure wins a lot of games.

Rodgers used to be amazing against the blitz. Near the top if not the best in the league. This year, he is atrocious. It's because he doesn't take the open guy, because our routes apparently are not designed to even have an open guy.

[pbmax]

Did we not run a more timing oriented offense when we had better receivers, Jennings, Jones, Jordy, Driver? Now, we have arguably worse receivers and expect more of them. How can Tom Brady miss a season or a few games and you not even notice? Because of the timing take the easy play offense. Flashy? No, but it sure wins a lot of games.

Rodgers used to be amazing against the blitz. Near the top if not the best in the league. This year, he is atrocious. It's because he doesn't take the open guy, because our routes apparently are not designed to even have an open guy.

Its a weird evolution, but the offense from 2010-2013 did start to show signs of wear and tear. It had big trouble versus good corners (Seattle) and versus Cover 2 man under. It needed tweaks, but this has taken a bad turn.

[Guiness]

Agreed. Hopefully the running and quicker-release timing-based passing games take hold. Otherwise we could see more of the same. Forcing rodgers to speed things up and dictate less at the line will hopefully help that.

I think Maxie used to work for a power company and was making an electricity pun...

[Maxie the Taxi]

I think Maxie used to work for a power company and was making an electricity pun...

Guilty as charged. I apologize, Vince.

[pbmax]

This article, almost certainly, will be garbage

http://insider.espn.com/nfl/insider/...eeded-nfl-2016

I would confirm its garbage, buts its behind their Insider paywall. But I bet it will be garbage.