Quote Originally Posted by hoosier View Post
In the absence of any more specific information the only possible answer is 50:50: either you make it or you don't.
Ok, let's say it's 3rd down with 7 yds to go? According to the stats, do the odds favor a run or a pass?

My point is the statistics must say that from a certain down and distance either or run or a pass has the best chance to gain a first down. If they don't, then the whole discussion about throwing vs running on 1st down is moot. Or, the statistics and odds are so situation dependent that a discussion about them is absurd.

Thus, "gut feel" for the situation might have just as much validity as statistics.

It gets back to what you referred to before as "momentum."