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Thread: More Banjo: Week 3 vs Lions

  1. #121
    The presence of the Falcons in that 4th Quarter lead list is hurting my brain.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  2. #122
    Quote Originally Posted by vince View Post
    5 running plays and 4 passing plays in the 3rd Q drive.

    7 running plays and 6 passing plays in the 4th Q drives up to the 3 victory formations.

    Plus a field goal and 2 punts. I'm counting play intent so QB scrambles or sacks indicate intent to pass.
    12 run to 10 pass is still more run than the first half.

    But one game result isn't going to make anyone's case. This was not even the best example of the tendency we are complaining about. Until the last drive, the run game was more effective than passing in the 2nd half.

    I will admit that evidence of my complaint is hard to find in that 4th quarter lead chart. The percentage difference between NE and GB is as scant as vince predicted it would be.

    I do wonder how it looks for top competition and playoffs.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  3. #123
    4th Quarter Leads

    Code:
    Rk	Tm			From	To	W	L	T	W-L%▼	Count	
    1	New England Patriots	2006	2016	109	16	0	0.872	125
    2	Green Bay Packers	2006	2016	94	14	0	0.870	108
    3	Denver Broncos		2006	2016	68	11	0	0.861	79	
    4	New Orleans Saints	2006	2016	81	14	0	0.853	95
    5	Pittsburgh Steelers	2006	2016	82	16	0	0.837	98
    6	Seattle Seahawks	2006	2016	72	14	0	0.837	86
    7	Chicago Bears		2006	2016	60	12	0	0.833	72	
    8	Baltimore Ravens	2006	2016	82	17	0	0.828	99
    9	Philadelphia Eagles	2006	2016	79	17	0	0.823	96
    10	New York Giants		2006	2016	69	16	0	0.812	85
    11	Indianapolis Colts	2006	2015	77	18	0	0.811	95
    12	New York Jets		2006	2016	59	14	0	0.808	73	
    13	San Francisco 49ers	2006	2016	61	15	0	0.803	76
    14	Arizona Cardinals	2006	2016	56	14	0	0.800	70
    15	Atlanta Falcons		2006	2016	62	17	0	0.785	79	
    16	Houston Texans		2006	2016	58	18	0	0.763	76
    17	Dallas Cowboys		2006	2016	58	19	0	0.753	77
    18	Buffalo Bills		2006	2016	46	16	0	0.742	62
    19	Kansas City Chiefs	2006	2016	55	20	0	0.733	75
    20	San Diego Chargers	2006	2016	65	24	0	0.730	89
    21	Jacksonville Jaguars	2006	2015	40	15	0	0.727	55
    22	Carolina Panthers	2006	2016	63	24	0	0.724	87
    23	Minnesota Vikings	2006	2016	53	20	1	0.723	74
    24	Cincinnati Bengals	2006	2015	61	23	2	0.721	86
    25	Tennessee Titans	2006	2016	45	22	0	0.672	67
    26	Miami Dolphins		2006	2015	42	22	0	0.656	64	
    27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2006	2016	38	21	0	0.644	59
    28	?????? Rams		2006	2016	41	27	1	0.601	69	
    29	Detroit Lions		2006	2016	35	27	0	0.565	62	
    30	Oakland Raiders		2006	2016	31	24	0	0.564	55	
    31	Cleveland Browns	2006	2016	36	28	0	0.563	64
    32	Washington Redskins	2006	2015	35	29	0	0.547	64
    Total				2006	2016	1913	604	4	.760	2521
    Last edited by pbmax; 09-29-2016 at 08:40 PM.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  4. #124
    Team Comparison to McCarthy-led Packers - Win/Loss Results when Leading at the Half

    Ranked by W-L%

    Code:
    Rk	Tm			From	To	W	L	T	W-L%▼	Count	
    1	New England Patriots	2006	2016	109	16	0	0.872	125
    2	Green Bay Packers	2006	2016	94	14	0	0.870	108
    3	Denver Broncos		2006	2016	68	11	0	0.861	79	
    4	New Orleans Saints	2006	2016	81	14	0	0.853	95
    5	Pittsburgh Steelers	2006	2016	82	16	0	0.837	98
    6	Seattle Seahawks	2006	2016	72	14	0	0.837	86
    7	Chicago Bears		2006	2016	60	12	0	0.833	72	
    8	Baltimore Ravens	2006	2016	82	17	0	0.828	99
    9	Philadelphia Eagles	2006	2016	79	17	0	0.823	96
    10	New York Giants		2006	2016	69	16	0	0.812	85
    11	Indianapolis Colts	2006	2015	77	18	0	0.811	95
    12	New York Jets		2006	2016	59	14	0	0.808	73	
    13	San Francisco 49ers	2006	2016	61	15	0	0.803	76
    14	Arizona Cardinals	2006	2016	56	14	0	0.800	70
    15	Atlanta Falcons		2006	2016	62	17	0	0.785	79	
    16	Houston Texans		2006	2016	58	18	0	0.763	76
    17	Dallas Cowboys		2006	2016	58	19	0	0.753	77
    18	Buffalo Bills		2006	2016	46	16	0	0.742	62
    19	Kansas City Chiefs	2006	2016	55	20	0	0.733	75
    20	San Diego Chargers	2006	2016	65	24	0	0.730	89
    21	Jacksonville Jaguars	2006	2015	40	15	0	0.727	55
    22	Carolina Panthers	2006	2016	63	24	0	0.724	87
    23	Minnesota Vikings	2006	2016	53	20	1	0.723	74
    24	Cincinnati Bengals	2006	2015	61	23	2	0.721	86
    25	Tennessee Titans	2006	2016	45	22	0	0.672	67
    26	Miami Dolphins		2006	2015	42	22	0	0.656	64	
    27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2006	2016	38	21	0	0.644	59
    28	?????????? Rams		2006	2016	41	27	1	0.601	69	
    29	Detroit Lions		2006	2016	35	27	0	0.565	62	
    30	Oakland Raiders		2006	2016	31	24	0	0.564	55	
    31	Cleveland Browns	2006	2016	36	28	0	0.563	64
    32	Washington Redskins	2006	2015	35	29	0	0.547	64
    Total				2006	2016	1913	604	4	.760	2521
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  5. #125
    vince, can you post the link or the Game Finder settings you used to get those lists? Having trouble duplicating.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  6. #126
    Legendary Rat HOFer vince's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxie the Taxi View Post
    Whether or not your statistics prove whether or not the "New School" passing strategy to get 1st downs and points in the fourth quarter is inferior to the Old School strategy of literally running down the clock, and whether or not Stubby would be the greatest coach in NFL history if he was "New School," IMO, is still an open question. But why beat this dead horse?
    Old school/new school is completely irrelevant terminology and accurately describes nothing with respect to the question at hand, but I get that you're equating old school with ineffective running strategy, an overemphasis (by your opinion) on the game clock, and going "conservative" which you understand to be self-definingly negative. By your perspective, old school is no longer relevant in today's game that emphasizes passing. You've loaded the term so heavily in the negative that it can't possibly be effective.

    Taking this definition and your identification of McCarthy with these negative traits, I've researched the reality of the situation, and it turns out that there are extensive, incontrovertable facts about the reality of McCarthy's level of effectiveness in closing games iwth the lead -without regard to any labels applied. Once the negative labels are applied, the facts of the situation prove the negative connotations to be not merely inappropriate but completely and entirely wrong.

    I've seen zero evidence, much less a hint of factual results, that even suggest that "New school" approach carries any level of success in closing out leads whatsoever. Your "proof" I'm assuming is your mind's reference to 1 ihighly emotional failure of the "old school" approach. No matter how emotional, one lone exception in the face of 10 times as many proof points doesn't disprove the rule. "Man it felt like it could have failed if the opponent wouldn't have run out of time" doesn't disprove the rule. "if this hypothetical would have happened it would have failed" doesn't disprove the rule. "Man they almost lost." doesn't disprove the rule. "I tell you what if there would have been a fifth quarter in that game, the Packers would have been beat by 2 touchdowns" doesn't disprove the rule. "They blew them out in the first half. McCarthy took his foot off the gas and they ALMOST lost." doesn't disprove the rule. "It worked in the first half" doesn't disprove the rule.

    The second half becomes increasingly different situation than the first have as the end of the game nears. That factor, combined with how the point differential is working for or against you and other trends (defensive energy for example comes to mind) potentially change the "winning" strategy. Denying the wisdom of whether and how the "winning" strategy might change as the game ending nears flies directly in the face of two facts. 1) It's pretty much universally accepted that McCarthy changes his approach based on point differential and time remaining, and 2) McCarthy has a 10 year proven track record of elite level success when leading and as the time remaining gets increasingly closer to the end than the beginning.

    Your opinion to your "open question" has no basis whatsoever at this point, while you characterize the successful strategy as stupid, out-dated and irrelevant there is extensive and overwhelming factual results over the last 10 years and including the present that prove both its relevance and effectiveness.

    Doesn't that at least give you some pause? The approach you're deeming as wrong is in fact, highly successful, while the approach you're deeming as correct has no evidence of success whatsoever, at least that's been offered here. I'd love to see it. I'd say any objective observer would either do more than pause or try to find some evidence of its relevance to the conversation much less limited positive results.

    Quote Originally Posted by Maxie the Taxi View Post
    Failures can happen anytime on any play and that they shouldn't be used to "justify one strategy to the exclusion of another." Yes, Davis dropped a 1st down pass. But that failure doesn't make passing again on 2nd down a foolish play.
    ...
    If the Packers had gone on to lose, which failure would have had "game-changing magnitude?" You can't control when and where a failure will occur, which is another reason, I would argue, that you shouldn't "sit on a lead."
    It could be argued that throwing on first down was indeed foolish. However, the punitive negative impact of the incompletion on first down (as compared to a run for no gain) absolutely impacts the wisdom of passing again on 2nd down. McCarthy can't control the success or failure of any play as we agree, but his failure to control the negative impact of failure a second time after failing to take that control the play prior would indeed by a foolish decision.

    The fact that a coach has very limited control of when and where a failure will occur (he can draw on experience to estimate its chances of happening and to what extent) is EXACTLY the reason they do control what they can - and that is the IMPACT of failure if/when it occurs - late in games with the lead are the instances where doing so is most successful - and failing to do so carries the greatest risk. By minimizing the potential impacts of failure through risk averse decisions, coaches can help position their team to close the game successfully, not in spite of the uncrontrollable factors but by minimizing their negative impacts to the goal of winning the game.
    Last edited by vince; 09-29-2016 at 11:00 PM.

  7. #127
    Legendary Rat HOFer vince's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pbmax View Post
    vince, can you post the link or the Game Finder settings you used to get those lists? Having trouble duplicating.
    Total games toggle at the top and at the bottom of the selection set of the first Additional Criteria are the "Halftime score margin" and "Score margin after 3 q" for each query, each set to greater than or equal to 1 obviously. The others like year range, all teams etc. I'm sure you'll find obvious.

    Description reads:
    Current search:
    In multiple seasons, from 2006 to 2016, requiring Score margin after 3 Qtrs >= 1, sorted by most games matching criteria

  8. #128
    Legendary Rat HOFer vince's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pbmax View Post
    The presence of the Falcons in that 4th Quarter lead list is hurting my brain.
    Yeah there's obviously a correlation between winning in any scenario and successfully closing games with the lead, so a coaching staff's player development effectiveness, weekly preparation, and a host of other important coaching skills impact hide themselves in a coach's game management decisions. In general, I think game management has a relatively small impact on a coaches ultimate success relative to the preponderance of other skills a coach needs. Most fans tend to focus on that component to the exclusion of the others in their judgments of coaches. The aspect where game management does have a bigger impact is closing games with the lead though.

    The Falcons had a decent run for a stretch the last decade.

  9. #129
    Senior Rat HOFer Maxie the Taxi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by vince View Post
    Taking this definition and your identification of McCarthy with these negative traits, I've researched the reality of the situation, and it turns out that there are extensive, incontrovertable facts about the reality of McCarthy's level of effectiveness in closing games iwth the lead...
    You see, that's where I disagree with you. The stats that you provide prove nothing relative to the "reality of McCarthy's level of effectiveness." I see McCarthy's name no where in the stat tables you provide. The tables compare team winning percentages; they say nothing about how or why those percentages are as they are. Stats do not conclude. YOU conclude based on the assumption YOU bring to the table, namely that Head Coaching strategy and game management is directly and solely responsible for the team winning percentages listed.

    In fact, any number of factors could be responsible for the stats. Head Coaching strategy and game management is only one factor. Another might be a great offense and superior excellence in the QB position. Another might be overall excellence of players at all positions. Another might be consistently effective performance by the defense. In fact, one could just as easily conclude from the data that Dom Capers is as much responsible for the Packers' won/loss percentage in the stats as McCarthy.

    Moreover, it is possible the Packers may have scored high in these won/loss results despite iffy Head Coaching offensive strategy and game management in the second half and 4th quarter. You cannot prove otherwise by reference alone to the statistics you provide.

    Quote Originally Posted by vince View Post
    The fact that a coach has very limited control of when and where a failure will occur (he can draw on experience to estimate its chances of happening and to what extent) is EXACTLY the reason they do control what they can - and that is the IMPACT of failure if/when it occurs - late in games with the lead are the instances where doing so is most successful - and failing to do so carries the greatest risk. By minimizing the potential impacts of failure through risk averse decisions, coaches can help position their team to close the game successfully, not in spite of the uncrontrollable factors but by minimizing their negative impacts to the goal of winning the game.
    The truth is that a coach is not simply a risk manager. Yes, each and every play in a football game carries "x" amount of risk of "bad things" happening (lost yards, fumbles, penalties, interceptions, etc.) which the coach must assess and consider based on his knowledge and experience. But each and every play also carries "y" amount of reward potential for "good things" happening (yards gained, field position, scoring position, 1st down gained, time off the clock, etc.) which the coach must assess and weigh against the risk.

    How the coach chooses to weigh risk against reward potential tells us whether he is "conservative" or "aggressive," "old school" or "new school" or however we want to describe it. Stubby has proved time and time again that he is, generally speaking, old school conservative.
    One time Lombardi was disgusted with the team in practice and told them they were going to have to start with the basics. He held up a ball and said: "This is a football." McGee immediately called out, "Stop, coach, you're going too fast," and that gave everyone a laugh.
    John Maxymuk, Packers By The Numbers

  10. #130
    Well, we may have to give Vince and pugger (and Beveraux?) a medal because if you take vince's search and make some changes, its clear we are talking about less than a handful of games where the situations we describe here make a difference.

    If you look at just playoff games, there are 2 games you might remember:
    Code:
                                                                      
                                                                      
    Rk                     Tm From   To  W  L T  W-L%            Count
    1          Denver Broncos 2011 2015  5  0 0 1.000     5 Ind. Games
    2       Arizona Cardinals 2008 2009  4  0 0 1.000     4 Ind. Games
    3      New Orleans Saints 2006 2013  4  0 0 1.000     4 Ind. Games
    4         New York Giants 2007 2011  4  0 0 1.000     4 Ind. Games
    5       Carolina Panthers 2014 2015  3  0 0 1.000     3 Ind. Games
    6     Philadelphia Eagles 2006 2008  3  0 0 1.000     3 Ind. Games
    7           Chicago Bears 2006 2010  2  0 0 1.000     2 Ind. Games
    8          Houston Texans 2011 2012  2  0 0 1.000     2 Ind. Games
    9           New York Jets 2009 2010  2  0 0 1.000     2 Ind. Games
    10   Jacksonville Jaguars 2007 2007  1  0 0 1.000     1 Ind. Games
    11       Baltimore Ravens 2008 2014  8  1 0 0.889     9 Ind. Games
    12    Pittsburgh Steelers 2008 2015  5  1 0 0.833     6 Ind. Games
    13      Green Bay Packers 2007 2015  7  2 0 0.778     9 Ind. Games
    14   New England Patriots 2006 2015  8  3 0 0.727    11 Ind. Games
    15       Seattle Seahawks 2006 2014  5  2 0 0.714     7 Ind. Games
    16     Indianapolis Colts 2006 2014  7  3 0 0.700    10 Ind. Games
    17    San Francisco 49ers 2011 2013  4  2 0 0.667     6 Ind. Games
    18     San Diego Chargers 2006 2013  3  2 0 0.600     5 Ind. Games
    19        Atlanta Falcons 2012 2012  1  1 0 0.500     2 Ind. Games
    20     Kansas City Chiefs 2013 2015  1  1 0 0.500     2 Ind. Games
    21      Minnesota Vikings 2009 2015  1  1 0 0.500     2 Ind. Games
    22         Dallas Cowboys 2006 2014  1  3 0 0.250     4 Ind. Games
    23          Detroit Lions 2014 2014  0  1 0 0.000     1 Ind. Games
    24    Washington Redskins 2012 2012  0  1 0 0.000     1 Ind. Games
                        Total 2006 2015 81 24 0  .771              105
    Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
    Generated 9/30/2016.

    The Packers list is this:
    Code:
                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                  Pass       Marg
    Rk    Tm Year       Date Time    LTime Opp Week G# Day  Result   OT Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Sk Yds   Q1 Q2 Q3
    1    GNB 2007 2008-01-12 4:33     3:33 SEA   19 17 Sat      W 42-20  18  23 78.3 173  3   0  1   0    0 11 15
    2    GNB 2010 2011-01-09 4:40     4:40 PHI   18 17 Sun      W 21-16  18  27 66.7 171  3   0  2   9    7 11 11
    3    GNB 2010 2011-01-15 8:15     8:15 ATL   19 18 Sat      W 48-21  31  36 86.1 346  3   0  2  20   -7 14 28
    4    GNB 2010 2011-02-06 6:34 5:34   N PIT   21 20 Sun      W 31-25  24  39 61.5 288  3   0  3  16   14 11  4
    5    GNB 2015 2016-01-10 4:42     4:42 WAS   18 17 Sun      W 35-18  21  36 58.3 205  2   0  1   5   -5  6  6
    6    GNB 2015 2016-01-16 8:15     6:15 ARI   19 18 Sat L 20-26   OT  24  44 54.5 251  2   1  1  10   -7 -1  3
    7    GNB 2012 2013-01-05 8:09     7:09 MIN   18 17 Sat      W 24-10  23  33 69.7 250  1   0  3  24    4 14 21
    8    GNB 2014 2015-01-18 3:06    12:06 SEA   20 18 Sun L 22-28   OT  19  34 55.9 171  1   2  1   7   13 16  9
    9    GNB 2010 2011-01-23 3:05     2:05 CHI   20 19 Sun      W 21-14  17  30 56.7 236  0   2  1   8    7 14 14
    Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
    Generated 9/30/2016.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  11. #131
    So 13th ranked win% in playoffs (77.8). Doesn't look tremendous, but there are 10 undefeated with much more limited experience (Packers tied for third most playoff games with lead after 3rd Q, Broncos are undefeated but have 5 games under these conditions).

    Patriots have 11, Colts 10, Packers and Balt have 9 games.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  12. #132
    So what about good teams? Same criteria against playoff bound teams:

    Code:
                                                                        
                                                                        
    Rk                     Tm From   To   W   L T  W-L%            Count
    1      New Orleans Saints 2006 2014  24   4 0 0.857    28 Ind. Games
    2    New England Patriots 2006 2015  34   7 0 0.829    41 Ind. Games
    3     Pittsburgh Steelers 2006 2015  24   5 0 0.828    29 Ind. Games
    4        Baltimore Ravens 2006 2015  27   6 0 0.818    33 Ind. Games
    5       Arizona Cardinals 2006 2015  16   4 0 0.800    20 Ind. Games
    6           New York Jets 2006 2015  16   4 0 0.800    20 Ind. Games
    7      Indianapolis Colts 2006 2015  27   7 0 0.794    34 Ind. Games
    8       Green Bay Packers 2006 2015  29   8 0 0.784    37 Ind. Games
    9          Denver Broncos 2006 2015  25   7 0 0.781    32 Ind. Games
    10       Seattle Seahawks 2006 2015  21   6 0 0.778    27 Ind. Games
    11      Minnesota Vikings 2006 2015  18   5 1 0.771    24 Ind. Games
    12        Atlanta Falcons 2007 2015  12   4 0 0.750    16 Ind. Games
    13   Jacksonville Jaguars 2006 2015  12   4 0 0.750    16 Ind. Games
    14      Carolina Panthers 2006 2015  21   7 1 0.741    29 Ind. Games
    15    Philadelphia Eagles 2006 2015  18   7 0 0.720    25 Ind. Games
    16        New York Giants 2006 2015  17   7 0 0.708    24 Ind. Games
    17     Cincinnati Bengals 2006 2015  15   6 1 0.705    22 Ind. Games
    18     Kansas City Chiefs 2006 2015  11   5 0 0.688    16 Ind. Games
    19   Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2006 2015  11   5 0 0.688    16 Ind. Games
    20         Miami Dolphins 2006 2015  13   6 0 0.684    19 Ind. Games
    21    San Francisco 49ers 2006 2015  17   8 0 0.680    25 Ind. Games
    22         St. Louis Rams 2006 2015  10   5 1 0.656    16 Ind. Games
    23          Chicago Bears 2006 2015  18  11 0 0.621    29 Ind. Games
    24         Dallas Cowboys 2006 2014  13   8 0 0.619    21 Ind. Games
    25         Houston Texans 2006 2014  13   8 0 0.619    21 Ind. Games
    26     San Diego Chargers 2006 2014  15  10 0 0.600    25 Ind. Games
    27    Washington Redskins 2006 2013  10   8 0 0.556    18 Ind. Games
    28        Oakland Raiders 2006 2015   6   5 0 0.545    11 Ind. Games
    29          Buffalo Bills 2006 2015   7   6 0 0.538    13 Ind. Games
    30       Tennessee Titans 2006 2014   7   7 0 0.500    14 Ind. Games
    31       Cleveland Browns 2006 2014   7  11 0 0.389    18 Ind. Games
    32          Detroit Lions 2006 2015   6  14 0 0.300    20 Ind. Games
                        Total 2006 2015 520 215 4  .706              739
    Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
    Generated 9/30/2016.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  13. #133
    Very similar to overall numbers when leading after 3 quarters. If you use the best win percentage recorded (Saints), if its all game management, you get 2 more wins.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  14. #134
    OK, different question, what about trailing at 3 Quarters?

    Code:
                                                                         
                                                                         
    Rk                     Tm From   To   W    L T  W-L%            Count
    1        Cleveland Browns 2006 2015   3   48 0 0.059    51 Ind. Games
    2         New York Giants 2006 2015   9   40 0 0.184    49 Ind. Games
    3          St. Louis Rams 2006 2015   2   47 0 0.041    49 Ind. Games
    4          Houston Texans 2006 2015   6   42 0 0.125    48 Ind. Games
    5         Oakland Raiders 2006 2015   3   45 0 0.063    48 Ind. Games
    6    Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2006 2015   3   45 0 0.063    48 Ind. Games
    7    Jacksonville Jaguars 2006 2015   2   45 0 0.043    47 Ind. Games
    8      Cincinnati Bengals 2006 2015   4   41 1 0.098    46 Ind. Games
    9        Tennessee Titans 2006 2015   6   40 0 0.130    46 Ind. Games
    10        Atlanta Falcons 2006 2015   5   40 0 0.111    45 Ind. Games
    11          Buffalo Bills 2006 2015   3   42 0 0.067    45 Ind. Games
    12          Detroit Lions 2006 2015   2   42 0 0.045    44 Ind. Games
    13          Chicago Bears 2006 2015   5   37 0 0.119    42 Ind. Games
    14      Minnesota Vikings 2006 2015   1   41 0 0.024    42 Ind. Games
    15      Arizona Cardinals 2006 2015   3   38 0 0.073    41 Ind. Games
    16      Carolina Panthers 2006 2015   3   35 0 0.079    38 Ind. Games
    17    San Francisco 49ers 2006 2015   3   35 0 0.079    38 Ind. Games
    18         Denver Broncos 2006 2015   6   31 0 0.162    37 Ind. Games
    19     Kansas City Chiefs 2006 2015   1   36 0 0.027    37 Ind. Games
    20     San Diego Chargers 2006 2015   5   32 0 0.135    37 Ind. Games
    21       Seattle Seahawks 2006 2015   8   29 0 0.216    37 Ind. Games
    22         Miami Dolphins 2006 2015   4   32 0 0.111    36 Ind. Games
    23          New York Jets 2006 2015   2   34 0 0.056    36 Ind. Games
    24       Baltimore Ravens 2006 2015   3   33 0 0.083    36 Ind. Games
    25    Washington Redskins 2006 2015   3   33 0 0.083    36 Ind. Games
    26         Dallas Cowboys 2006 2015   5   30 0 0.143    35 Ind. Games
    27     New Orleans Saints 2006 2015   4   31 0 0.114    35 Ind. Games
    28    Philadelphia Eagles 2006 2015   1   32 0 0.030    33 Ind. Games
    29     Indianapolis Colts 2006 2015   7   25 0 0.219    32 Ind. Games
    30    Pittsburgh Steelers 2006 2015   5   27 0 0.156    32 Ind. Games
    31      Green Bay Packers 2006 2015   4   26 0 0.133    30 Ind. Games
    32   New England Patriots 2006 2015   8   20 0 0.286    28 Ind. Games
                        Total 2006 2015 129 1154 1  .101             1284
    Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
    Generated 9/30/2016.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  15. #135
    You can see they don't trail often (this is all games (reg season and playoffs included) against playoff qualifiers).

    At 30 games when behind, they are 2nd ranked behind Patriots (28 versus 30 games meet criteria).

    Their win percentage of these games is 9th. In this case, with a modest amount of games, being the best at this scenario would give you four more wins.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  16. #136
    Quick takeaway?

    1. We probably overestimate the conservative end of game scenario for its impact on wins. I still maintain it exists and costs them games, but the number overall is less than 5.

    2. Playoff leads lead me back to the Seattle game. The Cardinal game featured an ineffectual Packer Offense. It still should have featured a 2 point conversion.

    I do think the Packers could increase their success with a more efficient late game strategy. But the difference is not huge. In the playoffs though, one more win is big deal.

    3. Packers, given talent elsewhere, not a particularly good comeback team. But difference is still modest.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  17. #137
    Quote Originally Posted by pbmax View Post
    Quick takeaway?

    1. We probably overestimate the conservative end of game scenario for its impact on wins. I still maintain it exists and costs them games, but the number overall is less than 5.

    2. Playoff leads lead me back to the Seattle game. The Cardinal game featured an ineffectual Packer Offense. It still should have featured a 2 point conversion.

    I do think the Packers could increase their success with a more efficient late game strategy. But the difference is not huge. In the playoffs though, one more win is big deal.

    3. Packers, given talent elsewhere, not a particularly good comeback team. But difference is still modest.
    In regards to the 2 point conversion is has been revealed that Janis was actually hurt on the hail mary and would have been unable to go on a 2pt play. That left GB with only 2 WRs. McCarthy said that he had no two point conversion plays in the playbook based out of a 2WR set
    I am better looking than you.

  18. #138
    Hard to believe he couldn't have swapped in a short yardage play with two TEs and two WRs. Roll Rodgers right with the weak-side TE going that way and then he has multiple options. Whatever, we now know with utmost certainty that overtime in postseason is instant death for the Packers.

  19. #139
    Quote Originally Posted by hoosier View Post
    Hard to believe he couldn't have swapped in a short yardage play with two TEs and two WRs. Roll Rodgers right with the weak-side TE going that way and then he has multiple options. Whatever, we now know with utmost certainty that overtime in postseason is instant death for the Packers.
    Stubby don't think on the fly.

  20. #140
    Quote Originally Posted by arcilite View Post
    In regards to the 2 point conversion is has been revealed that Janis was actually hurt on the hail mary and would have been unable to go on a 2pt play. That left GB with only 2 WRs. McCarthy said that he had no two point conversion plays in the playbook based out of a 2WR set
    Yeah, I get he didn't have his preferred plays. But injuries happen, the WR corp was already banged up and you need an emergency list.

    Its just malpractice not to have it. His offense had not sniffed the red zone much at all. It was the best scoring chance they were likely to get.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

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