I've been fooling with the draft simulator for a couple of years now and I agree with the scout that this draft is "top heavy." After the 2nd or 3rd round it's slim pickings. I wouldn't be surprised if TT traded up for a guy they really value/need.
I've been fooling with the draft simulator for a couple of years now and I agree with the scout that this draft is "top heavy." After the 2nd or 3rd round it's slim pickings. I wouldn't be surprised if TT traded up for a guy they really value/need.
One time Lombardi was disgusted with the team in practice and told them they were going to have to start with the basics. He held up a ball and said: "This is a football." McGee immediately called out, "Stop, coach, you're going too fast," and that gave everyone a laugh.
John Maxymuk, Packers By The Numbers
That and the fact that we need a little bit of Quality rather than a lot of quantity.
What could be more GOOD and NORMAL and AMERICAN than Packer Football?
Silverstein:
Fresno St. H-back Aaron Peck, 6-3, 235, 4.63, 37 VJ, 22 bench, among #Packers' draft visits. Stats: 46-630-3 in '16. Missed '15 w/foot inj.
WHY would the Packers have any interest at all in yet another TE or FB?
What could be more GOOD and NORMAL and AMERICAN than Packer Football?
They only have 4 on the roster. They have carried five before.Originally Posted by texaspackerbacker
This is more plausible than the RB has a huge hole argument.
Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.
TT is all about quantity over quality.
wist
You really think that if TT had a choice between LT and three Datone Joneses, he'd pick the three Datone Joneses? The truth is that no one knows who the next LT or Ray Lewis is. The more picks in the draft you get, the more likely it is to hit on someone, especially when the "surefire" players have all been taken already (Top 10ish).
I'm sure there's data out there (that I would love to have) that has the possibility of drafting a star attached to each draft slot. I'd love to take that data up against a trade chart and see if moving up 10 spots in the draft adds as much potential quality as losing next year's number 1 draft pick would lose. My gut tells me the losses outweigh the gains unless you're starting from the middle of the pack and moving into the Top 10. Starting at the bottom of the round, you have to pray that you're lucky.
TT has only had a few mid or top of the round picks:
2006: AJ Hawk (#5). Reliable starter, eminently replaceable (but wasn't) in a draft that was overall just terrible.
2007: Justin Harrell (#16). A miss. Injuries killed his career. I don't like calling injured players busts as I reserve that for the Ahmad Carrolls of the NFL, but you can if you want
2009: BJ Raji (#9). Flashed very brightly in 2010 helping lead to a Super Bowl. I don't know how I'd rank him otherwise, but I'd trade the #9 pick in the draft for that kind of performance in a Super Bowl winning year.
Those are the only times TT picked within the Top 20. After Rodgers first starting season, he hasn't picked inside the 20s (barring a trade up, this will be the eighth year in a row). Restocking and finding quality is tough when two thirds of the league has picked their favorites before you get a chance.
Here are the rest of TT's first round picks in draft order:
21 (2014): HHCD - appears to be long term starter and a good player
23 (2010): Bulaga - long term starter and a good player
26 (2009): Matthews - the second first round pick that year, and someone who had several great seasons to start his career but has tapered off due to injuries; still a good player
27 (2016): Clark - too early to tell, but he flashed in the playoffs against a good Dallas O-line
28 (2012): Perry - not a flashy pass rusher, but a very good run defender, and some argue more important to the D than Matthews because of that
30 (2015): Randall - a terrible sophomore campaign that followed a very promising rookie campaign--he's got one more year to turn it around before we Casey Hayward him.
30 (2008): Traded into second round for Jordy Nelson
32 (2011): Sherrod - along with Harrell, the only (so far--Randall, I'm watching you) outright miss by TT in the first round, but again, due to injuries; as I recall though, many people hated the Harrell pick but loved the Sherrod pick at the time. Both failed for the same three reasons: injuries, injuries, injuries.
Anyway, with only 2 out of 12 (maybe 3 depending on how Randall rebounds) first round picks outright failing to deliver value for the Packers, I'd say he's done a pretty good job picking through the leftovers at the end of the round.
If Clark doesn't turn into something special though, I would think we're due for another star in this draft. It's random and completely unpredictable, but we haven't gotten a bonafide star for a while.
P.S. Sorry for the text wall. Just had my second cup of coffee.
No longer the member of any fan clubs. I'm tired of jinxing players out of the league and into obscurity.
Great post Smidgeon! For some on this site, if you're not Ditka going after Ricky Williams then you aren't doing enough. Just is what it is I guess. I do appreciate the distraction during the off season though.
Now what y'all know about dem Texas boys
Comin' down in candied toys, smokin' weed and talkin' noise!!!
Aren't most of their visits guys who aren't expected to be drafted and who might get signed to PS? If I had to guess I would say this is about filling the 90 man roster and potential practice squad material.
Here you go: http://www.nber.org/papers/w11270.pdf (Cade Massey, Richard H. Thaler)
NFL teams (and it goes without saying, message board commenters) are over-confident about their ability to succeed with higher draft picks (the "right to choose"). They incorrectly ignore or underestimate the unknown variables and the resulting inability to make correct picks above 50% of the time. Therefore they eschew the obvious mitigation strategy of acquiring more picks.
Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.
Dougherty piece on Watt: http://www.packersnews.com/story/spo...ers/100376830/
For the record, both scouts have early second-round grades on Watt. But that doesn’t exclude him as a possible late first-round pick even in their minds.According to MockDraftable’s data that goes back to the 1999 combine, Watt’s 40 time (4.69 seconds) was only a little above average for an outside linebacker and his bench press (21 reps) was slightly below average. But his other tests for athleticism stood out: His three-cone drill (6.79 seconds) was in the 90th percentile, short shuttle (4.13 seconds) 84th percentile, broad jump (128 inches) 95th percentile and vertical jump (37 inches) 82nd percentile.
He also has good length (6-feet-4½, 93rd percentile) and weight (252 pounds, 89th percentile).
Anyone have a first 10 yards number for Watt from his 40?
One of the scouts ranked them as 3-4 prospects, in order, Harris, Watt, Bowser, Lawson.
“I think Watt will be good,” one of the scouts said. “I don’t know how great he’ll be.”
The other scout predicted Harris will be better than Watt as a rookie, but he sees more long term in Watt.
Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.
Yea, with watt you have to factor in a few things. One, I don't value 40 time for LBs much. Short shuttle and 3 cone mean more. 2, He is a big LB so factor that in. He doesn't rely on pure speed, but length and size as well. 3, His pedigree is fantastic.
I expect he will be gone when we pick. I hope not. I have seen a recent espn mock with the pack taking Mixon in the first. I have been on the Mixon bandwagon, but if we take him in the first he better be Ladanian Tomlinson Jr.
I don't hold Grudges. It's counterproductive.
Smidgeon has a point. Because of our success we end up drafting at the end of every round unless we move up like we did last year for Spriggs. Especially in the first round by the time our turn comes up most of the really good ones are long gone so you gotta get lucky and not have your first round picks bomb because of injuries. This might be the year when Ted does go for quality rather than quantity so perhaps he'll move up? None of us dreamt he would be as active - for him - in FA this year either.
The argument against staying put and simply drafting what falls to you is that you are not going to come away with impact players.
We have baskets full of young developmental guys, and scant few difference makers. Were it not for 1 pick (Rodgers) TT likely would have been fired by now.
That said, the biggest problem this team has is the problem it always has - defense. The fact is - TT and the Packers as an organization are not good at evaluating, drafting, and developing defensive players. Currently, and for too many years running now, a lot of this blame rests with dunderdummy - but then since TT refuses to fire the idiot, it has to come back to Ted.
Sans Matthews, none of the players you've cited is an impact player... and Matthews is past his prime.
I expect nothing to change, and I fully expect another playoff berth, followed by a defensive meltdown resulting in another playoff exit.
Rinse. Repeat.
Last edited by wist43; 04-14-2017 at 07:30 AM.
wist
How does this sound for the first 4 picks...
1. Fire Capers - instant improvement!!
1. Tim Williams, LB, Alabama (Don't think he'll be there, but if he falls enough - trade up to get him maybe)
2. Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma
3a. Obi Melifonwu, S/LB, Connecticut
3b. Demontae Kazee, CB, San Diego State
wist
Dougherty on Jabril Peppers best position from scouts:
1 at RB
1 at LB
1 at safety
1 at CB
http://www.packersnews.com/story/spo...ers/100420434/
Last edited by pbmax; 04-14-2017 at 01:13 PM.
Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.
I'm in the camp of hoping we don't draft Peppers. I've never been sold on him for a variety of reasons.
I'm hoping for Melifonwu S/LB, 6'4", 219 lbs... not sure he'll be there at our 3rd pick.
The 4 guys I listed above would fill holes and make us immediately better... not sure if any of them would be there at those picks, but I'd move around to get them. If we came away with those 4 guys and nothing else - load up on undrafted FA,s - I'd call that a successful draft.
wist
Just have to hope the teams in front of us take QBs, RBs and more Offense. Keep dropping that defensive talent down. Not really sure where Tim Williams will end up. I think you could probably switch your Perine and Obi picks. Obi in 2nd and Perine in 3rd. Doubt either will fall that far. Don't know much about your 3b guy. Maybe he'll be it. I'd be OK with any or all of the other 3.
Now what y'all know about dem Texas boys
Comin' down in candied toys, smokin' weed and talkin' noise!!!
I like that you're an independent thinker with unique perspectives. But don't fall into the trap of thinking these couple guys are the good ones. So much uncertainty. I'll bet you end up with either 1 or two at the most decent players in that group. That's how much of a crapshoot the draft is. So I think this would go very badly because you just never know how a guy will play in the more complex, faster, and physical NFL.
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