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Thread: Official Packers vs. Falcons NFC Title Game Discussion Thread

  1. #81
    Lunatic Rat HOFer RashanGary's Avatar
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    Falcons lose Adrian clayborn. He's their second best pass rusher. So they're left with one guy who can rush the passer against Aaron Rodgers. We're going to light them the fuck up!

  2. #82
    Interesting that Atlanta is 12-5. They've played 7 games against teams with a winning record and 8 teams with a losing record. The Packers are 12-6. They've played 10 games against teams with a winning record, three teams that went 8-8, and just 6 games against teams with a losing record. The Falcons are 6-3 at home. The Packers are 5-4 on the road. The Packers lost 33-32 at Atlanta during their four game losing streak, without Randall Cobb, Jared Cook, Ty Montgomery, and Clay Matthews (but with Jordy Nelson). Atlanta led the league in scoring, but the Packers are scoring at about the same rate as Atlanta during their winning streak. Statistically, the Falcons defense is worse than the Packers (in points/game, yards/game, 3rd down %, fewer sacks, fewer interceptions). This game is pretty much a tossup. The Falcons are at home, but Ryan has a giant monkey on his back. The Packers have momentum.
    "There's a lot of interest in the draft. It's great. But quite frankly, most of the people that are commenting on it don't know anything about what they are talking about."--Ted Thompson

  3. #83
    Senior Rat All-Pro oldbutnotdeadyet's Avatar
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    Ok, I'm finally sober from the game. Time to start drinking to get ready for Sunday.

    Seriously, I really really want this game. Seeing the Packers in the SuperBowl again before I die would be very very cool...

  4. #84
    Legendary Rat HOFer vince's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by texaspackerbacker View Post
    You're saying the Packers have been underdogs 18 times since Rodgers was the starting QB? That's hard to believe.
    The Packers have been underdogs 40 times since Rodgers was the starting QB, and they're 15-25 in those games. That includes games in which he did not play though, which I'll try to take out of consideration.
    Here's the link.

    2008 8 (2-6)
    2009 4 (2-2)
    2010 5 (3-2) (Rodgers didn't play vs. NWE - L)
    2011 1 (1-0) (Rodgers didn't play vs. DET - W)
    2012 3 (1-2)
    2013 6 (1-5) (Rodgers didn't play vs. PHI - L, NYG - L, DET - L, DAL - L)
    2014 4 (0-4)
    2015 4 (2-2)
    2016 5 (3-2)

    So that makes the Packers 14-20 in 34 games in which Rodgers started as the underdog, which ranks 7th best winning % in the league as the underdog.

    In that time only New England (21) has been an underdog fewer times than Green Bay.
    Last edited by vince; 01-18-2017 at 09:00 AM.

  5. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by vince View Post
    The Packers have been underdogs 40 times since Rodgers was the starting QB, and they're 15-25 in those games. That includes games in which he did not play though, which I'll try to take out of consideration.
    Here's the link.

    2008 8 (2-6)
    2009 4 (2-2)
    2010 5 (3-2) (Rodgers didn't play vs. NWE - L)
    2011 1 (1-0) (Rodgers didn't play vs. DET - W)
    2012 3 (1-2)
    2013 6 (1-5) (Rodgers didn't play vs. PHI - L, NYG - L, DET - L)
    2014 4 (0-4)
    2015 4 (2-2)
    2016 5 (3-2)

    So that makes the Packers 14-21 in 35 games in which Rodgers started as the underdog, which ranks 7th best winning % in the league as the underdog.

    In that time only New England (21) has been an underdog fewer times than Green Bay.
    And let me do the selective cherry picking!

    Let's throw out ARod's first year as a starter as he was just learning the ropes. That puts him at 12-15 or almost 44.5%.
    But Rodgers leads the league in frumpy expressions and negative body language on the sideline, which makes him, like Josh Allen, a unique double threat.

    -Tim Harmston

  6. #86
    Legendary Rat HOFer vince's Avatar
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    I missed the Dallas game in 2013 so it's actually 12-14 since 2009, .462 ranks 3rd best in that time.

  7. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by Maxie the Taxi View Post
    Ryan has been a top QB in the league for years. Both Ryan and Arod have thrown 7 INT's this year.

    I'll ask again. Did you watch Ryan play against Seattle? Granted he's not as mobile as Arod, but he ran for several 1st downs vs Seattle. Plus, he doesn't necessarily need mobility if he gets rid of the ball as quickly as he did against Seattle. And most throws right on target.

    Dom apparently wanted to contain Zeke and make Dak beat them with his arm. I guaran-damn-tee you Dom doesn't go into Atlanta employing the same strategy.
    I didn't see your post until this morning - that's why I didn't respond sooner. I saw part of the Seattle Atlanta game. I still say Ryan ain't even close mobility-wise to either Rodgers or Prescott. Accuracy-wise he is, but awareness-wise and caution-wise he falls well short also.

    Rodgers' 7 interceptions were mostly early on when he was in some kind of a funk. Recently, he has been head and shoulders ahead of Ryan and everybody else (stating the obvious hahahaha). If you made a comparison "for years", I suspect Ryan wouldn't even come close to Rodgers in TDs to INTs.

    I agree (as I posted in some thread) that Dom will conjure up a whole other strategy for the Falcons - a lot more pass rush, less emphasis on the run, risk giving them some big plays in order to lessen their short and mid-range passing game. I guaran-damn-tee you that Dom will try to make Ryan use that mobility and his RBs instead of having so many open receivers in short zones like we let the Cowboys have.
    What could be more GOOD and NORMAL and AMERICAN than Packer Football?

  8. #88
    Quote Originally Posted by vince View Post
    The Packers have been underdogs 40 times since Rodgers was the starting QB, and they're 15-25 in those games. That includes games in which he did not play though, which I'll try to take out of consideration.
    Here's the link.

    2008 8 (2-6)
    2009 4 (2-2)
    2010 5 (3-2) (Rodgers didn't play vs. NWE - L)
    2011 1 (1-0) (Rodgers didn't play vs. DET - W)
    2012 3 (1-2)
    2013 6 (1-5) (Rodgers didn't play vs. PHI - L, NYG - L, DET - L, DAL - L)
    2014 4 (0-4)
    2015 4 (2-2)
    2016 5 (3-2)

    So that makes the Packers 14-20 in 34 games in which Rodgers started as the underdog, which ranks 7th best winning % in the league as the underdog.

    In that time only New England (21) has been an underdog fewer times than Green Bay.
    I meant 18 times in the playoffs was heard to believe, but either way, these numbers are surprising - I'm not questioning your stats, just that I'm shocked by them.
    What could be more GOOD and NORMAL and AMERICAN than Packer Football?

  9. #89
    Quote Originally Posted by texaspackerbacker View Post
    He's still a lot closer to Eli than to Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers or Dak Prescott.
    On that list, only Rodgers has had a season to rival Ryan's 2016. He has been remarkable this year.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  10. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by Joemailman View Post
    Do you believe in The Jinx?

    Regional covers.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  11. #91
    Kacsmar is trying to say that the Packers don't do well in shootouts (Packer D allowing more than 26 points) when underdogs.

    More generally, Packers are 16-38-1 when allowing 26+ points. Falcons are 17-40.

    http://pfref.com/tiny/n2Up4

    Kacsmar wants you to believe the Packers won't fare well as underdogs. I think that may the wrong question. As these numbers guys say, sometimes splits happen.

    I don't think 5 fewer wins as underdogs in this scenario means much given the overwhelming chance of losing such a game (need to score 4 TDs just to be competitive). Since BOTH teams are in this boat, I don't think underdog comes into it much UNLESS its proven the Falcons are clearly a superior team.

    I think the earlier game this year disabuses that notion. I think the Packer D will be more effective than people think.
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  12. #92
    Senior Rat HOFer Maxie the Taxi's Avatar
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    I'm sick of all the jabbering. It's a great day for a ball game.


    let's play two!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    One time Lombardi was disgusted with the team in practice and told them they were going to have to start with the basics. He held up a ball and said: "This is a football." McGee immediately called out, "Stop, coach, you're going too fast," and that gave everyone a laugh.
    John Maxymuk, Packers By The Numbers

  13. #93
    Neo Rat HOFer Fritz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hoosier View Post
    I would like to hear what Fritz's feelings about this game are.

    Fritz feels sad.

    Fritz admires the spirit and tenacity of this year's version of the Green Bay Packers; he admires the way Rodgers has upped his game after being dogged by so many people (including Fritz) for his earlier play. The Dallas game was, from an entertainment standpoint, some of the best the NFL can offer; from a Packer fan's standpoint, from Rodgers's interception on it was agonizing.

    They've had a great season. But as Pete Dougherty has pointed out, you can only keep up the smoke and mirrors for so long.

    http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports...kers/96638478/

    When you're in must-win mode week after week after week after week, when you've played sixteen weeks in a row, when your opponent is vastly healthier and has had a previous week off, when your #1 cornerback and #1 running back have been long gone, when your last victory sees you without your #1 wide receiver, your #2 wide receiver limping, your veteran safety limping, your starting left corner hurting, your star left tackle gimping, and your pre-season practice-squad-phenom-if-he-can-learn-the-game-in-time playing cornerback in the divisional round of the playoffs, then you've just plain run out of gas.


    I don't blame anyone. That Packer defense, as horrible as it was, is running on fumes. As several have pointed out here, it's a beat-up group. Physically - and, I would argue, emotionally. You can only be in the pressure cooker for so long before it all blows up. And this is that game.

    Atlanta has the best offense in the entire league. Don't believe me? Check the statistics. Their defense is horrible, for sure - but is healthier than the Packer defense. And more rested.

    Look at this unofficial Packer depth chart from early this season:
    Shields
    Randall
    Rollins
    Gunther
    Hyde
    Goodson
    Dorleant
    Hawkins

    Eight corners, if you count Hyde. Three are gone for the year, one has missed significant time now in the playoffs, and one has been playing hurt since his groin surgery (and has suffered other injuries since). Now Gunther's hurting. That leaves Hyde and Hawkins.

    Then you have a defense that has not been stellar stopping the run, and it faces not one but two pretty stellar running backs, who pose different problems for defenses.

    The wheels come off the bus this weekend. I called it in Dallas last weekend, and I was wrong, but does anyone want to tell me the wheels didn't at least start coming off the bus once Rodgers threw that interception? You all saw that last quarter, didn't you?

    I think Rodgers has valiantly carried this team. He did it against Dallas. But I think it's too much to ask or think he can do it again. I see Atlanta putting up 40+.

    Fritz is sad.
    "The Devine era is actually worse than you remember if you go back and look at it."

    KYPack

  14. #94
    Lunatic Rat HOFer RashanGary's Avatar
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    I kind of agree fritz, but I'm still gonna hope!

  15. #95
    Senior Rat HOFer Maxie the Taxi's Avatar
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    Fritz, Gunter's hurting? I hadn't heard that. What's up with him?
    One time Lombardi was disgusted with the team in practice and told them they were going to have to start with the basics. He held up a ball and said: "This is a football." McGee immediately called out, "Stop, coach, you're going too fast," and that gave everyone a laugh.
    John Maxymuk, Packers By The Numbers

  16. #96
    Oracle Rat HOFer Cheesehead Craig's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxie the Taxi View Post
    Fritz, Gunter's hurting? I hadn't heard that. What's up with him?
    Nothing official on him, just the collision on Sunday. I'm sure something's sore on him.
    All hail the Ruler of the Meadow!

  17. #97
    Legendary Rat HOFer vince's Avatar
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    Atlanta's defense more active since first meeting with Packers

    Since their Week 11 bye, the Falcons’ defense has generated 13 turnovers in the last seven games, including last week’s divisional playoff vs. Seattle. That win, combined with Green Bay’s victory in Dallas, has set up Atlanta to host Sunday’s NFC title game against the Packers.

    The turnover surge has been a huge factor in allowing only two of their last seven opponents to top 20 points after some much rougher defensive outings earlier in the season, including against Green Bay in a last-minute, 33-32 victory in Week 8.

    “We’re much closer to the style and vision we’d like to play, playing with that kind of speed and intensity and tackling,” Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn said in a conference call with Green Bay media on Wednesday. “It came from experience. We needed more turns together, and the communication has picked up.”
    It's very hard to see them replicating this against Rodgers this weekend.

  18. #98
    Neo Rat HOFer Fritz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cheesehead Craig View Post
    Nothing official on him, just the collision on Sunday. I'm sure something's sore on him.

    Buzzfeed says he hurt his wiener.
    "The Devine era is actually worse than you remember if you go back and look at it."

    KYPack

  19. #99
    M3 Wednesday Presser

    Wes Hodkiewicz ‏@WesHod 5h5 hours ago
    McCarthy: Jordy Nelson will be working with the rehab group today #Packers

    Tom Silverstein ‏@TomSilverstein 5h5 hours ago
    McCarthy on Rodgers’ improvement: We’ve improved as an offense. We changed direction how we start games, emphasis with how used no huddle.

    Tom Silverstein ‏@TomSilverstein 5h5 hours ago
    McCarthy on Kenny Clark: Played well. See snaps have gone up. Last six weeks taken a big jump. Happy with progress.

    Wes Hodkiewicz ‏@WesHod 5h5 hours ago
    McCarthy: Morgan Burnett will be working in the rehab group today #Packers

    Packer Report ‏@PackerReport 5h5 hours ago
    MM on Crosby's struggles in 2012: "We always believed in the man and obviously you can see why."

    Green Bay Packers ‏@packers 5h5 hours ago
    McCarthy on @crosbykicks2: He's the ultimate professional. His mental toughness is unique. I think that's what separates him.

    Tom Silverstein ‏@TomSilverstein 5h5 hours ago
    McCarthy on Jared Cook: He was here as much as could in off-season. Definitely a transition. Look at him now, he’s playing great football.

    Packer Report ‏@PackerReport 5h5 hours ago
    MM on Atlanta's offense: Playing great and have done so all year. Most consistent offense. Starts up front, Ryan having MVP-type season.

    Tom Silverstein ‏@TomSilverstein 5h5 hours ago
    McCarthy on Matt Ryan: Always been a fan. Had to make some changes with offensive systems. Composed, always handled tough situations well.

    Michael Cohen ‏@Michael_Cohen13 5h5 hours ago
    McCarthy said Bakhtiari/Bulaga will work in a limited fashion. Rollins is close to clearing concussion protocol. Adams in the rehab group.

    Michael Cohen ‏@Michael_Cohen13 5h5 hours ago
    McCarthy said Joe Thomas is a young player continuing to improve at inside linebacker. "Joe has probably taken two steps this year."

    Tom Silverstein ‏@TomSilverstein 5h5 hours ago
    McCarthy on depth: Young players played early and often. We’ll need them this week. This is the NFL.

    Tom Silverstein ‏@TomSilverstein 5h5 hours ago
    McCarthy on WR coach Luke Getsy: Just look at the results. Every one of those young guys has improved a lot. Davante taken a big step.

    Tom Silverstein ‏@TomSilverstein 5h5 hours ago
    McCarthy on Micah Hyde: Don’t know position he hasn’t played outside offensive and defensive line. His personality fits locker room.

    QUARTERBACK?

    Packer Report ‏@PackerReport 5h5 hours ago
    Can Adams play on Sunday? "We'll see," MM says. Maybe will practice on Saturday. So that's not a great response.

    THAT'S NOT PAWSITIVE

    Green Bay Packers ‏@packers 5h5 hours ago
    McCarthy on Rodgers: Aaron's competitiveness never turns off. It's all day every day. Most competitive player in our building.

    Wes Hodkiewicz ‏@WesHod 5h5 hours ago
    McCarthy said he doesn't expect Davante Adams to practice until Saturday. Want to see him move throughout week #Packers

    SLIGHTLY MORE PAWSITIVE?
    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

  20. #100
    SPOON SUMMARY

    Tom Silverstein ‏@TomSilverstein 5h5 hours ago
    #Packers injuries: Nelson, Burnett, Adams not practicing. Adams will practice Saturday at earliest. Nelson a ? again. Bakhtiari, Bulaga, OK.


    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

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