Vic Ketchmab calls a spade a spade with fans who live in fantasy

[Maxie the Taxi]

Why don't you go ponder some graphs....

I just thought you ought to know that you're interpreting those pictures above all wrong. LOL

[hoosier]

I just thought you ought to know that you're interpreting those pictures above all wrong. LOL

No doubt, I must be looking on the wrong side of that blue line.

[Maxie the Taxi]

No doubt, I must be looking on the wrong side of that blue line.

Yes! Often what you don't see is far more important than what you do see.

[hoosier]

Yes! Often what you don't see is far more important than what you do see.

Or, to paraphrase Poe, often what you don't see is sitting there right in front of your eyes.

[Maxie the Taxi]

Or, to paraphrase Poe, often what you don't see is sitting there right in front of your eyes.

Or, to paraphrase Marx, either this horse is dead or my watch has stopped.

[3irty1]

I think there are kind of two parts to unpack about those running plays. 1) Making the high percentage fieldgoal and favorable clock rundown plan A at the expense of a high percentage first down. 2) the specific play call given the stated goal of a plan A fieldgoal+clock rundown.

I wonder which McCarthy regrets more. 1 seems more defensible/falsifiable because as the game gets shorter and shorter the probabilities more useful. I think its clear that giving the ball to Rodgers is your best shot at a first down but that comes with downsides. I don't know (after accounting for the extent and likelyhood of the possible bad outcomes) whether a pair of incomplete passes that stop the clock or a pair of bad runs that eat clock but leave an even lower percentage field goal is the right move.

[pbmax]

I think there are kind of two parts to unpack about those running plays. 1) Making the high percentage fieldgoal and favorable clock rundown plan A at the expense of a high percentage first down. 2) the specific play call given the stated goal of a plan A fieldgoal+clock rundown.

I wonder which McCarthy regrets more. 1 seems more defensible/falsifiable because as the game gets shorter and shorter the probabilities more useful. I think its clear that giving the ball to Rodgers is your best shot at a first down but that comes with downsides. I don't know (after accounting for the extent and likelyhood of the possible bad outcomes) whether a pair of incomplete passes that stop the clock or a pair of bad runs that eat clock but leave an even lower percentage field goal is the right move.

A better move, regardless of your intention, is to keep a back in the backfield, get under center and let the defense choose whether they want to defend run or pass.

McCarthy likes to game plan to take advantage of his talent over the defense. He sees Seattle in Cover 1 or 3 playing single coverage outside and he wants to throw against it outside (so does Rodgers).

But then he discovers that Seattle knows this yet can shut you down because the talent is not a mismatch as it is against most teams. In fact, Earl Thomas and Sherman might be better at their jobs than your receivers are at theirs. At halftime he junks it and throw short in the middle and scores twice against a good D.

He throws out a heavy formation, or goes two TEs or inverted wishbone and expects to win a run. When the Defense completely commits to stopping that run, good luck. It can be done and you need to prepare for it to be done because there may come a time you need a short yardage win.

But that doesn't make it the best play call. You need to account for the D that you will see. McCarthy knows this because he gives Rodgers reads to get out of a bad play against a certain look. But he ignores it late and gets conservative.


EDIT: Changed this to just conservative in last sentence. He has broadened his approach until later in the game and there are more conservative offenses in this situation.