Vic Ketchmab calls a spade a spade with fans who live in fantasy

[Fritz]

He gets some blame for the defense first of all. He's not Assistant Head Coach for Offense.

But mainly he gets the blame for playing for late leads with FGs too often. Far too often he bleeds the clock, gets a FG and sees the opponent march in TD territory. It cannot be news to him that his Defense is capable of folding under those circumstances. Even if Ted and Dom have betrayed Mike the Offensive Playcaller, his job as McCarthy the Head Coach is to take that into account.

I know it's an "even if" statement, but I've been thinking about how many first-round picks TT has invested in this porous defense. There's Clay Matthews, Kenny Clark, Nick Perry, Datone Jones, Damarious Randall, and Ha-H Clinton Dix. That's six first round picks.

He seems to have spent the majority of his recent first round resources on defense. On offense, and I'm doing all this off the top of my head, there's Bulaga, Rodgers, and . . . ? Lots of second and third rounders, but the seemingly most valuable resource, the first rounder, has been spent primarily on defense. Thompson certainly has not shorted that side of the ball in terms of spending resources. As for results...

This leads me to think that maybe one way to make a transition to the next GM would be to allow Ted to choose only players on the offensive side of the ball, and let someone else - anyone else? - draft the defensive side.

I know injuries are an issue for this defense, but even before the onslaught, this wasn't a defense that appeared to be a unit of strength on this team. And now it's like watching that 2011 defense.

[vince]

Kept us in FG range?? A 56 yarder is hardly the way I want to sew the game up. He owes Crosby a handy at minimum!

Edit:...I'm actually not done yet. Needed a 56 yard and 51 yard FG to be successful, and needed Rodgers to complete a ridiculous pass for a huge chunk of yards down the sideline. Did it work? Sure, but I guess you could say Pete Carroll was flawless in the NFCC against us because his team covered the onside kick.

Yes, Crosby nailed the field goals - all of them. Equally important to the successful conclusion of this game was the forcing of Dallas to use thier spare timeouts, which made possible the final game-winning drive and a huge playoff upset on the road.

The rest is all here in this thread bobble so I'm done using the reality of success to defend against one-sided fantasy scenarios. Sorry pal.

[pbmax]

I know it's an "even if" statement, but I've been thinking about how many first-round picks TT has invested in this porous defense. There's Clay Matthews, Kenny Clark, Nick Perry, Datone Jones, Damarious Randall, and Ha-H Clinton Dix. That's six first round picks.

He seems to have spent the majority of his recent first round resources on defense. On offense, and I'm doing all this off the top of my head, there's Bulaga, Rodgers, and . . . ? Lots of second and third rounders, but the seemingly most valuable resource, the first rounder, has been spent primarily on defense. Thompson certainly has not shorted that side of the ball in terms of spending resources. As for results...

This leads me to think that maybe one way to make a transition to the next GM would be to allow Ted to choose only players on the offensive side of the ball, and let someone else - anyone else? - draft the defensive side.

I know injuries are an issue for this defense, but even before the onslaught, this wasn't a defense that appeared to be a unit of strength on this team. And now it's like watching that 2011 defense.

In reality, this is what vince and I should be arguing about. The Defense should be better, you would think, given the attention given to it. But its always beat to hell.

We would need to run numbers on draft picks again. It always seems like the top picks go to D, but I bet its closer to even than we remember.

[bobblehead]

My replacement cyborg body and mind transference device beg to differ. However, given current laws, we won't be able to settle the bet until CY-pbmax posts in the 2030s.

And me...I've got tiger blood!

[pbmax]

In reality, I also acknowledge that we are arguing about a very fine line. McCarthy playing for FG probably is, overall, a maximizing win play under 3 minutes. Maybe even 4. Especially if that gives you a 4 point lead or greater.

We are talking about greater aggression on 2-4 play calls a game at most and the Packes usually have a big lead.

And no, to repeat, I don't want to change the coach. if there are 7 other coaching candidates who could do as well as McCarthy I would be surprised. Even more so if the Packers found him.

[bobblehead]

NFL Power Rankings 2016: Examining Super Bowl Favorites Following Preseason Packers #3

Preseason Power Rankings Packers #4

PFF: Ranking the rosters of all 32 NFL teams - 2016 Packers #2

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Ranking the 10 LEAST Talented Rosters in the NFL Packers - conspicuously absent

I see a pattern. Once we dumped Hawk we improved!!

[Fritz]

I just looked it up. Thompson has used nine first-round picks on defensive players, and three on offensive players. One year he traded back, so he had no first-round pick. He got some guy named Jordy Nelson in the second round.

[bobblehead]

That one did NOT hurt. It helped them WIN THE GAME.

A successful three-yard (or ten-yard) pass would also have helped, but carried the added cost of putting the Cowboys in FAR BETTER position to win the game if the pass were defended or dropped as Richard Rodgers had done just two plays earlier.

To assume a hypothetical pass play would have been successful as justification against the actual play that was successful despite losing yardage is ridiculous.

So, when he lined up for that 56 yarder you were just as confident as if it were a 49 yarder? Would you rather steph curry line up a shot from 15 feet or dunk it?

[bobblehead]

Obviously McCarthy would have preferred yard gainage over Spriggs' whiff. But that's fanboy after-the-fact second-guessing.
.

I disagree. When the entire NFL, kids at home, and millions watching around the world know you are going to run into the teeth of the D twice and then hope AR bails you out on 3rd and 14, its not second guessing. If we are in the exact same scenario v. atlanta and he calls a run, it will lose yards. Why? Because MM has been so predictable in that call for over a decade that guys line up to blow it up. Run a naked bootleg with cobb on the field and releasing just one out of 6 times on second down there and the success of the other 5 goes up immensely. Also, the odds of getting a first on that 1 of 6 is pretty good.

[bobblehead]

Thank you. Results are real - and what matters. Saying, "Had the results been different, I'd have been right. Therefore, I am right." is not based in reality.

.

I was at this party drunk in college and I grabbed this hot chic right between the legs, pushed her to the wall and kissed her. She went home with me. I made the right call....clearly...cuz I got laid.

[pbmax]

I disagree. When the entire NFL, kids at home, and millions watching around the world know you are going to run into the teeth of the D twice and then hope AR bails you out on 3rd and 14, its not second guessing. If we are in the exact same scenario v. atlanta and he calls a run, it will lose yards. Why? Because MM has been so predictable in that call for over a decade that guys line up to blow it up. Run a naked bootleg with cobb on the field and releasing just one out of 6 times on second down there and the success of the other 5 goes up immensely. Also, the odds of getting a first on that 1 of 6 is pretty good.

I do think he has adjusted this year. Much less 8 minute appearances of the 4 minute offense and he has passed more late in games.

But when they got into FG range you could just sense it happening. Not quite the same as Seattle as there was much less time, but still, he was going to run each down.

[Bossman641]

Mccarthy has already adjusted some. We've seen rodgers fake a hand off and run a bootleg 2-3 times now. Does anyone recall him doing that in the past? The one thing I'd like to see him do is use more misdirection when the defense is geared up for a run. He's used it on the bootleg and Janis end around. Fake a dive, sneak cook out from back side, and give rodgers a run/pass option.

[bobblehead]

I do think he has adjusted this year. Much less 8 minute appearances of the 4 minute offense and he has passed more late in games.

But when they got into FG range you could just sense it happening. Not quite the same as Seattle as there was much less time, but still, he was going to run each down.

Agreed. He is better. Thus I only criticized 2 plays. The D did not go into a shell to prevent the big play in the middle of the 3rd Q either. He is getting better. If he would just read our posts the sky is the limit!!

[Zool]

In reality, this is what vince and I should be arguing about. The Defense should be better, you would think, given the attention given to it. But its always beat to hell.

We would need to run numbers on draft picks again. It always seems like the top picks go to D, but I bet its closer to even than we remember.

I'll add Raji and Harrell to the D and Sherrod to the O

[Fritz]

I looked those numbers up. If you go back to Ted's first draft, he had nine first round picks on defense, and three on offense. The year he had two first-rounders, he took Raji and Matthews. The year he had no first rounder, having traded back, he took Jordy Nelson. His three first-round offensive players were Rodgers, Bulaga, and Sherrod.

[vince]

His three first-round offensive players were Rodgers, Bulaga, and Sherrod.

That first one should count as 10.

[pbmax]

That first one should count as 10.

Bulaga should get extra credit too. A less stubborn man may have hung it up a while ago. He's been gimpy all year.

[3irty1]

I think there are kind of two parts to unpack about those running plays. 1) Making the high percentage fieldgoal and favorable clock rundown plan A at the expense of a high percentage first down. 2) the specific play call given the stated goal of a plan A fieldgoal+clock rundown.

I wonder which McCarthy regrets more. 1 seems more defensible/falsifiable because as the game gets shorter and shorter the probabilities more useful. I think its clear that giving the ball to Rodgers is your best shot at a first down but that comes with downsides. I don't know (after accounting for the extent and likelyhood of the possible bad outcomes) whether a pair of incomplete passes that stop the clock or a pair of bad runs that eat clock but leave an even lower percentage field goal is the right move.

[pbmax]

I think there are kind of two parts to unpack about those running plays. 1) Making the high percentage fieldgoal and favorable clock rundown plan A at the expense of a high percentage first down. 2) the specific play call given the stated goal of a plan A fieldgoal+clock rundown.

I wonder which McCarthy regrets more. 1 seems more defensible/falsifiable because as the game gets shorter and shorter the probabilities more useful. I think its clear that giving the ball to Rodgers is your best shot at a first down but that comes with downsides. I don't know (after accounting for the extent and likelyhood of the possible bad outcomes) whether a pair of incomplete passes that stop the clock or a pair of bad runs that eat clock but leave an even lower percentage field goal is the right move.

A better move, regardless of your intention, is to keep a back in the backfield, get under center and let the defense choose whether they want to defend run or pass.

McCarthy likes to game plan to take advantage of his talent over the defense. He sees Seattle in Cover 1 or 3 playing single coverage outside and he wants to throw against it outside (so does Rodgers).

But then he discovers that Seattle knows this yet can shut you down because the talent is not a mismatch as it is against most teams. In fact, Earl Thomas and Sherman might be better at their jobs than your receivers are at theirs. At halftime he junks it and throw short in the middle and scores twice against a good D.

He throws out a heavy formation, or goes two TEs or inverted wishbone and expects to win a run. When the Defense completely commits to stopping that run, good luck. It can be done and you need to prepare for it to be done because there may come a time you need a short yardage win.

But that doesn't make it the best play call. You need to account for the D that you will see. McCarthy knows this because he gives Rodgers reads to get out of a bad play against a certain look. But he ignores it late and gets conservative.


EDIT: Changed this to just conservative in last sentence. He has broadened his approach until later in the game and there are more conservative offenses in this situation.

[bobblehead]

I'll add Raji and Harrell to the D and Sherrod to the O

Who are 3 guys whose careers were cut short by injury Alex?