http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/1...dge-rookie-qbs
More Jimmy Garoppolo, this time what a Bayesian approach to his 63 passes in 2016 tells you about him
Don't want to spend the day learning about Bayes' Theorem?
As little as we know about how good Garoppolo really is, we know even less about a generic first-rounder, plus our best guess at Garoppolo's underlying talent is slightly higher. With this method, we can even estimate the probability that Garoppolo would be better than the generic first-round QB, given certain assumptions. With what we've seen so far, there's a 59 percent chance Garoppolo would turn out better. If we repeat the same analysis but instead use a more advanced metric of performance -- expected points added -- we get very similar results: a 64 percent chance that Garoppolo is better than a generic-first rounder.
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