Bad fact #3

he was a little bit better the third year, but not to any degree, and then he just really developed.
In the Winter ahead of Rodgers' 4th year, the Packers put Favre on a timetable for a decision. A timetable he had not, since yearly Hamletizing became a thing in 2000, adhered to previously. This was before OTAs or camp and before FA and the draft. They had time to restock if they needed to.

When they got back word he was retiring, they made exactly zero moves away from Rodgers from the late spring to camp. If McGinn thinks that scouts or Packer coaches couldn't see that Rodgers was going to be the future, he really does believe in miracles and unicorns.

Shorter version: at the end of Rodgers year 3, the Packers thought he was the future and were mad enough about cold Brett to send him packing. The entire holdout/unretire deal doesn't happen if the head coach doesn't think Rodgers is the better choice.