Is McCarthy the problem?

[Bretsky]

EPPN 1070 had a hayday with Jennings. There was an overwhelming consensus. There is Hoody Genius and the other 31 coaches. And it's not even close. Hello Captain Obvious....IMO

But they noted that the conservative route often chosen by MM is the same one Tomlin and every other coach in the NFL takes except Hoody Genius.

Some went on to further say that MM's calls are obviously worse because TT has did an amazing job stacking our offense and a sad job stacking our defense.

Obviously Wist didn't call in; nobody mentioned anything about Dom Capers and the defensive coaches besides the obvious references that they don't have enough to work with to rely on for key 3rd down stops

[mraynrand]

EPPN 1070 had a hayday with Jennings. There was an overwhelming consensus. There is Hoody Genius and the other 31 coaches. And it's not even close.

If that's really what they said, they're a bunch of idiots. Ya, Cheat is the best, but Stubby and few others are a clearly superior second group.

[Bretsky]

If that's really what they said, they're a bunch of idiots. Ya, Cheat is the best, but Stubby and few others are a clearly superior second group.

They didn't really attempt to tier coaches, but I'd agree with you Stubb is in the second tier in a group of the next 8 or so coaches

Their comments were as I stated....on this topic and the rest...there is Hoody and the rest of the pack

And Hoody is the one coach that will keep stomping on you while you are down because he knows his offense is superior. The rest...the last 31....just play the odds and call the game based on the score..etc.......

[vince]

Last 5 Years Run Rate by Down in 4th Q with a Lead

.............1........2........3......4.......Win % in Those Games
NE........52.0...32.3...14.6...1.1.........95.2
GB........51.1...33.9...13.6...1.4.........92.0
League..50.1...33.8...15.0...1.1.........82.1

Not a lot of difference in approach across the league in reality but the notion that Bellichick acts differently with a lead in the 4th is incorrect.

NE and GB have historically (last decade or so) been the 2 best teams in the league in successfully closing games with 4th Q lead. Widely-held misperceptions about this have to be based on 1 or 2 memorable anomalies.

[mraynrand]

Widely-held misperceptions about this have to be based on 1 or 2 memorable anomalies.

More like 3 or 4. A lot of pain is contained in 3.2%

[pbmax]

Last 5 Years Run Rate by Down in 4th Q with a Lead

.............1........2........3......4.......Win % in Those Games
NE........52.0...32.3...14.6...1.1.........95.2
GB........51.1...33.9...13.6...1.4.........92.0
League..50.1...33.8...15.0...1.1.........82.1

Not a lot of difference in approach across the league in reality but the notion that Bellichick acts differently with a lead in the 4th is incorrect.

NE and GB have historically (last decade or so) been the 2 best teams in the league in successfully closing games with 4th Q lead. Widely-held misperceptions about this have to be based on 1 or 2 memorable anomalies.

Seriously, welcome back to the fray. But I have to set some time (probably during fantasy football prep) to dig in further to their records. The stuff you have dug up make it obvious the differences are not huge.

[vince]

This is kind of interesting.

Last 5 Years Run Rate by Down in 4th Q close games (when leading by 7 or less)

..............1st........2nd......3rd.......4th... .......Win % in Those Game
NE..........53.8......29.7.....14.5......2.1...... ......90.0
GB..........49.4......33.3.....15.6......1.7...... ......89.5
League....53.2......32.4.....13.5......0.9........ ....68.8

[Zool]

I don't have enough total recall to back up your assertion that he's outcoached Old Billy, but he's a pretty damned good coach. Dan Marino had Don Shula who is widely considered one of the best coaches ever. Marino had 9 playoff appearances in 17 years. 13 years were with Shula coaching and they hit the playoffs 6 times. I guess you can talk about NFC Championship games as a detriment, but that's a bit like saying Marv Levy is a bad coach because he lost 4 superbowls.

[mraynrand]

that's a bit like saying Marv Levy is a bad coach because he lost 4 superbowls.

When the Levy breaks, mama you got to move.

[vince]

OK I was a little quick publishing those stats. Those are the percentage of runs on each down relative to the other downs, not relative to passes. Sorry about that.

Here are the 5-yr. run vs. pass rates in the 4th Q with a lead (all downs combined).

NE - 58%
GB - 63%
League - 65%

Belli is 5% more likely than McCarthy to pass with a lead in the 4th. McCarthy is 2% more likely than the league average. Both are very successful closing games.

[hoosier]

OK I was a little quick publishing those stats. Those are the percentage of runs on each down relative to the other downs, not relative to passes. Sorry about that.

Here are the 5-yr. run vs. pass rates in the 4th Q with a lead (all downs combined).

NE - 58%
GB - 63%
League - 65%

Belli is 5% more likely than McCarthy to pass with a lead in the 4th. McCarthy is 2% more likely than the league average. Both are very successful closing games.

To fully understand the comparison we would need to see a little more differentiation for circumstances. For instance, run calls according to down & distance and size of lead. They could have similar overall numbers in this fourth quarter with lead category, but if it turned out the Patriots tend to have bigger leads than the Packers, then MM's run-calling tendencies would seem even more comparatively conservative than the five percent indicated here.

[mraynrand]

To fully understand the comparison we would need to see a little more differentiation for circumstances.

I like to just watch the games. You get a feel for what works for a particular coach. I generally think many many Packer fans, angry with Stubby for his failures, don't actually watch a lot of other games and see how 25 or more head coaches screw things up on a routine basis.

There's a reason Stubby wins 10 or more games and makes the playoffs every year. And if some smart guy wants to say it's Rodgers bailing him out, then he should give credit to Stubby for training Rodgers so well. But he probably won't!

[hoosier]

I like to just watch the games. You get a feel for what works for a particular coach. I generally think many many Packer fans, angry with Stubby for his failures, don't actually watch a lot of other games and see how 25 or more head coaches screw things up on a routine basis.

There's a reason Stubby wins 10 or more games and makes the playoffs every year. And if some smart guy wants to say it's Rodgers bailing him out, then he should give credit to Stubby for training Rodgers so well. But he probably won't!

Football is about four decades if not more behind baseball in its analytical evolution. You, sitting on your couch, content to remain in your intuitive slumbers, are part of what is keeping football in its Dark Ages.

[pbmax]

The problem with those run rates is that when you run is almost as important as how much you run.

Last year McCarthy at times seemed to loosen up in the 4 minute offense and pass more when trying to burn clock. Problem was that on several occasions, he went run-run-pass from conservative formations before putting out his 3 WRs package for 3rd down. He might as well have sent Western Union onto the field.

This is Marty Schottenheimer level thinking. That there is a formula to win and if you follow it, you will win. Also, if another team is aware of the formula and counters it, then you just need to win harder.

The answer is to play smarter. You want to burn clock as priority #1 in the 4 minute offense? Then put your pass catching back out there in single back with 3 WRs or 2 TEs, with at least one in the slot. Then go pass-run-run or anything other than telegraphed play calls.

The good thing about those run rates is that it does support the idea that M3 is not far off the mark. He just needs to get over down and distance considerations and try to hurt the defense with some confusion.

[MadScientist]

The problem with those run rates is that when you run is almost as important as how much you run.

Last year McCarthy at times seemed to loosen up in the 4 minute offense and pass more when trying to burn clock. Problem was that on several occasions, he went run-run-pass from conservative formations before putting out his 3 WRs package for 3rd down. He might as well have sent Western Union onto the field.

This is Marty Schottenheimer level thinking. That there is a formula to win and if you follow it, you will win. Also, if another team is aware of the formula and counters it, then you just need to win harder.

The answer is to play smarter. You want to burn clock as priority #1 in the 4 minute offense? Then put your pass catching back out there in single back with 3 WRs or 2 TEs, with at least one in the slot. Then go pass-run-run or anything other than telegraphed play calls.

The good thing about those run rates is that it does support the idea that M3 is not far off the mark. He just needs to get over down and distance considerations and try to hurt the defense with some confusion.

Perhaps a good part of the problem lately is the personnel available. A RB that can catch and two TE's with one optionally split wide sound great, but when your TE's are crap (R.Rodgers and whoever when Cook was out last year) or one receiving TE (Cook) and a plodding piss-poor blocker (Rodgers). it just doesn't work like you would want it. Add to that a RB situation where you either had a plodding pounder (Rip or previously Fat Eddie), or a converted WR who will really struggle against a stop-the-run front, and you have a situation where it doesn't matter what you want to do, the players aren't going to do it very well.

This year they could play around with Monty and Rip in the backfield, the two good TE's and Jordy, which has potential for power running or 4 credible receiving threats and a bodyguard / safety valve for AR. At least on this forum it sounds good.

[pbmax]

Perhaps a good part of the problem lately is the personnel available. A RB that can catch and two TE's with one optionally split wide sound great, but when your TE's are crap (R.Rodgers and whoever when Cook was out last year) or one receiving TE (Cook) and a plodding piss-poor blocker (Rodgers). it just doesn't work like you would want it. Add to that a RB situation where you either had a plodding pounder (Rip or previously Fat Eddie), or a converted WR who will really struggle against a stop-the-run front, and you have a situation where it doesn't matter what you want to do, the players aren't going to do it very well.

This year they could play around with Monty and Rip in the backfield, the two good TE's and Jordy, which has potential for power running or 4 credible receiving threats and a bodyguard / safety valve for AR. At least on this forum it sounds good.

True for the recent past with the Cook exception, but I was looking forward with my suggestions.

Despite the lack of threatening TEs, M3 can still line up 3 wide in years past and threaten both pass and run. Does the lack of a TE hurt when attacking the middle? Sure. But there are other ways to stress the defense.

[Rutnstrut]

I don't really dislike stubby's way of coaching, except. I hate his unwillingness to realize his "plan" isn't working and gameplan on the fly. That willingness to scrap a preplanned game plan and shift on the fly is what makes BB superhuman compared to other coaches. IMO stubby would never have brought a team back in the SB from behind like Belichick did. I do feel stubby would be the coach lose the lead in a big game though.

[mraynrand]

I don't really dislike stubby's way of coaching, except. I hate his unwillingness to realize his "plan" isn't working and gameplan on the fly. That willingness to scrap a preplanned game plan and shift on the fly is what makes BB superhuman compared to other coaches. IMO stubby would never have brought a team back in the SB from behind like Belichick did. I do feel stubby would be the coach lose the lead in a big game though.

That's why he's Stubby. Still, ya gotta admit, they were down by 14 to Seattle and came storming back (was Favre the one who changed the gameplay on the fly, was it Stubby or both?) and absolutely destroyed Seattle in 2007; Down by 17 at AZ and within about 2 feet of an OT win on that overthrow to Jennings. That's about as good as you can get comeback-wise in the playoffs. They gave up big leads versus Pittsburgh in the SB and Dallas in Divisional last year and still won. Seattle was their huge blunder, that's the only significant lead where they ended up losing in the playoffs, but it was only a two score lead (12 points).

[Joemailman]

http://www.tmj4.com/sports/green-bay...nings-comments

Rodgers responded in defense of his coach, saying he’s more concerned with the opinions of his teammates and coaching staff.

“I’ve made it pretty well known how I feel about Mike,” Rodgers said. “He’s our leader and...we follow his lead and we love Mike. We believe in him, and he believes in us, and so we got his back.”

[Maxie the Taxi]

Is Stubby the problem?

The buck stops with him. He and his entire staff including Capers should go. Their act is stale. Being a Packers fan nowadays is like watching a long-running TV series that is past it's prime. The plot is predictable. I don't care if Stubby rallies the troops and runs the table. It's time for some new blood.