More Banjo: Week 5 @ Dallas

[pbmax]

OK 2 point break down. I was confident the first time I ran through in in GD thread. Less confident when I posted it in Banjo, so let's take it apart.

First things first, the operation as Zook calls the snap and hold were better in second half, but I doubt anyone was oozing confidence in TAYBOR™ and Vogel. So the advantage might have been greater given their performance in this game.

Remember Cowboys are built to mil clock, even with Packer defense coming back in second half, Cowboys drives were long and time consuming.

28-24 after Randall Pick 6. No matter what Cowboys can't get a FG to stay in game.

If you make a 2 pointer, you are up 6. If they score it and go for 1 (30-31), you can win with FG

If you miss 2 PT, you are up 4. If they score and go for 1 (28-31), FG ties it. They could go for 2 to force you to get T, but I doubt it when odds are high of a tie at home.

If you kick the PAT and make it, 29-31 after Cowboy score. Depending on clock, VERY good chance the Boys go for 2. Kicking a PAT for a 2 point lead is no different for 1 point lead.

If you kick the PAT and miss (a definite possibility today at 32 yards), 28-31 after Dallas TD, they will not got for 2 and a FG nets a tie.

[vince]

OK 2 point break down. I was confident the first time I ran through in in GD thread. Less confident when I posted it in Banjo, so let's take it apart.

First things first, the operation as Zook calls the snap and hold were better in second half, but I doubt anyone was oozing confidence in TAYBOR™ and Vogel. So the advantage might have been greater given their performance in this game.

Remember Cowboys are built to mil clock, even with Packer defense coming back in second half, Cowboys drives were long and time consuming.

28-24 after Randall Pick 6. No matter what Cowboys can't get a FG to stay in game.

If you make a 2 pointer, you are up 6. If they score it and go for 1 (30-31), you can win with FG

If you miss 2 PT, you are up 4. If they score and go for 1 (28-31), FG ties it. They could go for 2 to force you to get T, but I doubt it when odds are high of a tie at home.

If you kick the PAT and make it, 29-31 after Cowboy score. Depending on clock, VERY good chance the Boys go for 2. Kicking a PAT for a 2 point lead is no different for 1 point lead.

If you kick the PAT and miss (a definite possibility today at 32 yards), 28-31 after Dallas TD, they will not got for 2 and a FG nets a tie.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...or-2-for-real/
The chart I looked at (link above) says that when up 4, the two options are "The Same" in terms of win probability.

[pbmax]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...or-2-for-real/
The chart I looked at (link above) says that when up 4, the two options are "The Same" in terms of win probability.

I could see that. The operation on the kicking team probably tilts in in the 2 pointers favor then.

[Bossman641]

OK 2 point break down. I was confident the first time I ran through in in GD thread. Less confident when I posted it in Banjo, so let's take it apart.

First things first, the operation as Zook calls the snap and hold were better in second half, but I doubt anyone was oozing confidence in TAYBOR™ and Vogel. So the advantage might have been greater given their performance in this game.

Remember Cowboys are built to mil clock, even with Packer defense coming back in second half, Cowboys drives were long and time consuming.

28-24 after Randall Pick 6. No matter what Cowboys can't get a FG to stay in game.

If you make a 2 pointer, you are up 6. If they score it and go for 1 (30-31), you can win with FG

If you miss 2 PT, you are up 4. If they score and go for 1 (28-31), FG ties it. They could go for 2 to force you to get T, but I doubt it when odds are high of a tie at home.

If you kick the PAT and make it, 29-31 after Cowboy score. Depending on clock, VERY good chance the Boys go for 2. Kicking a PAT for a 2 point lead is no different for 1 point lead.

If you kick the PAT and miss (a definite possibility today at 32 yards), 28-31 after Dallas TD, they will not got for 2 and a FG nets a tie.

I'm not following the reasoning behind going for 2. Kick the XP and go up 29-24. If Dallas scores the TD, they will go for 2 to make it 29-32. If they fail, a FG wins the game for us. Even if they convert, a FG ties the game. Does it basically boil down to MM felt better about the offense's ability to convert a 2 PT try then he did the defense's ability to stop a 2 pt try?

[pbmax]

I'm not following the reasoning behind going for 2. Kick the XP and go up 29-24. If Dallas scores the TD, they will go for 2 to make it 29-32. If they fail, a FG wins the game for us. Even if they convert, a FG ties the game. Does it basically boil down to MM felt better about the offense's ability to convert a 2 PT try then he did the defense's ability to stop a 2 pt try?

I think the PAT operation being problematic was definitely a factor.

The website someone found (538 I think) had it as even money for a typical scenario (which doesn't take into account the poor performance).

[Joemailman]

I'm not following the reasoning behind going for 2. Kick the XP and go up 29-24. If Dallas scores the TD, they will go for 2 to make it 29-32. If they fail, a FG wins the game for us. Even if they convert, a FG ties the game. Does it basically boil down to MM felt better about the offense's ability to convert a 2 PT try then he did the defense's ability to stop a 2 pt try?

There was 10 minutes left in the game. Plenty of time for Dallas to potentially get the ball back twice. If you kick the xtra point to go up 5, Dallas doesn't even need a TD to win. They can beat you with 2 FG's.

[mraynrand]

There was 10 minutes left in the game. Plenty of time for Dallas to potentially get the ball back twice. If you kick the xtra point to go up 5, Dallas doesn't even need a TD to win. They can beat you with 2 FG's.

good point